2026 11 09

Global Financial Briefing — Monday, 9 November 2026

Americas index levels, commodities and day changes reflect the 9 Nov 2026 close. The US Treasury par and real curves, the curve spreads and the US curve chart are at the 9 Nov 2026 close. The euro AAA curve is the 6 Nov 2026 observation, the latest the ECB had published. FX is the evening quote; credit and macro figures are dated inline.

Market Overview

Lower oil and a rebound in chip shares lifted markets on Monday, and the S&P 500 has now recovered most of last Thursday's fall. The S&P 500 closed up 2.35%, the Nasdaq 100 3.40% and the Dow 2.15%. The S&P 500 closed 2.67% above Thursday's close of 7,353.73, which recovers about 59% of that day's 4.36% fall, and 0.25% below its close on 3 November, the day of the US midterm elections; the Dow closed 1.16% above it. Brent crude's January contract (BZF27) fell 5.85% to settle at $92.57 after President Trump told CNN over the weekend that renewed strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if negotiations progress (AP); Brent was above $112 at the start of the month (AP). Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some Iranian demands "outrageous and ridiculous" on Sunday, and attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz continue (CNBC, Trading Economics), so the oil market still prices some supply risk.

Nvidia was the exception among the large technology companies, closing down 4.3% (Yahoo Finance). Its board has opened an inquiry after chief executive Jensen Huang acknowledged a relationship with a business executive whom US intelligence believes was gathering information for China, according to The New York Times as reported by AP; the board said it has "no reason to believe" national security or company secrets were compromised, and Nvidia says Huang intends to remain chief executive (CNBC). Other chip makers rose regardless: AMD gained 13.3% after an Oppenheimer upgrade (CNBC) and Broadcom 8.8% (Yahoo Finance). Europe closed higher with technology and bank shares leading, the STOXX 600 up 1.26% and the DAX 1.73% (Anadolu Agency). In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.33% and Taiwan's TAIEX 4.94%, while Korea's Kospi fell 0.81% after topping 5,100 during the session (CNBC, MoneyToday).

Longer US yields barely moved while short ones rose, and yields fell in most of Europe. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.88%, up 2 bp on the day, and the 5-year at 4.67%, up 3 bp (US Treasury par curve, 9 Nov). The 10-year French yield fell 3 bp to 4.75%, its lowest since late September (Trading Economics), and the 10-year gilt 2 bp to 5.14%, as cheaper oil eased inflation worries. Japan was the other way round: its 10-year yield rose 3 bp to 2.68% after the Bank of Japan's chief economist, Seisaku Kameda, signalled a likely rate rise in December (Trading Economics). The dollar weakened, down 0.48% on the ICE dollar index, and the euro rose 0.57% to $1.1207. The week's main test comes on Tuesday with the US consumer price index for October.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 9 Nov 2026 close.

The S&P 500 closed 1.69% below its 50-day average and 3.07% above its 200-day; the Nasdaq 100 is still 5.82% below its 50-day average and 0.27% below its 200-day, despite rising 4.80% since Thursday's close. Brazil's Ibovespa rose 2.22% but remains 8.27% below its 50-day average.

Europe

European data reflects the 9 Nov 2026 close.

The STOXX 600 is 1.51% above its 30 October close, 2.45% above its 50-day average and 1.04% below its record of 663.41. Banks and technology shares led the gains (Anadolu Agency, DirectorsTalk), even though Citi cut its view of European technology shares to neutral from overweight on Monday (CNBC). The DAX is 2.78% above its 50-day average and the CAC 40 2.57%; Switzerland's SMI, up 1.01%, is 5.43% above its own.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects the 9 Nov 2026 close.

The Nikkei's 2.33% rise recovers little of last week's fall: the index is 7.13% below its 30 October close and 9.97% below its 50-day average. The broader Topix rose 2.97% (CNBC). The Kospi fell 0.81% to 5,018.85, 12.42% below its 30 October close and 21.48% below its 50-day average; Korean shares were weighed by uncertainty over China's producer prices, Tuesday's US inflation figures and Nvidia's inquiry (MoneyToday). Hong Kong's Hang Seng was little changed, down 0.13%, and Shanghai rose 0.32%; China's October producer prices, released that morning, came in above forecasts.

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market data reflects the 9 Nov 2026 close.

EEM's 2.87% rise is New York's valuation of emerging markets, not what those markets did today. It trades in US hours, after most of the index's Asian markets had closed: Taiwan rose 4.94% (CNBC), but the Kospi fell 0.81%, the Hang Seng 0.13% and India's Nifty 50 rose only 0.23%. Part of EEM's rise is the weaker dollar, which raises the dollar value of shares priced in local currencies. South Africa's fund (EZA) rose 3.18%.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026; shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM, taken 19:54 CET. SPY, QQQ and EEM are priced off the 9 Nov 2026 close; the other proxies were at their close when taken.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 23.9x gives an earnings yield of 4.18% (1÷23.95). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 4.88% (US Treasury par curve, 9 Nov) the earnings yield gap is −0.70 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.66% (US Treasury real curve, 9 Nov) the gap is +1.52 pp; the 2.22 pp difference is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 28.0x has an earnings yield of 3.57%, 1.31 pp below the 10-year Treasury. The S&P 500 is 3.07% above its 200-day average and 1.69% below its 50-day. Today showed how much the index depends on a handful of chip companies: Nvidia fell 4.3% on a question about its chief executive while the rest of the market rose. The VIX volatility index was 25.64 on 6 November (FRED VIXCLS), elevated, and Tuesday's October inflation figures will shape the odds of a December Fed rise, which stood at about 77% after Friday's jobs report (CME FedWatch, as reported by CNBC on 6 November).

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 18.2x gives an earnings yield of 5.51% (1÷18.16); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.29% (ECB YC API, 6 Nov) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.22 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.27% (Trading Economics) it is +2.24 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.27% (AAA nominal less long-term HICP expectations, ECB SPF 2026 Q4) it is +4.24 pp. The US trades at a 31.8% premium to the STOXX 600 on trailing earnings. Part of the gap between the US and euro figures reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, although on the latest decomposition (US 9 November, euro 6 November) only 20 bp of the 159 bp difference in 10-year yields is expected inflation and 139 bp is real yield. In France the CAC 40 at 17.4x yields 5.76% in earnings, only 1.02 pp above the 10-year OAT at 4.75%, because French government debt pays 148 bp more than German debt. The DAX at 18.6x gives 5.38%, 2.11 pp above the Bund. For a euro investor in euro-quoted funds the quoted value carries no exchange-rate effect, but the earnings do: many STOXX 600 companies earn in dollars, and a euro that has risen 0.57% today makes those earnings worth less in euros.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei fund (1321.T) trades at 15.4x trailing earnings, an earnings yield of 6.51% (1÷15.35), 3.84 pp above the 10-year JGB at 2.68%. The index remains 9.97% below its 50-day average and 5.15% below its 200-day after last week's fall in chip makers. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1.25% on 18 September and held it on 30 October; its chief economist's signal today of a likely rise in December would narrow the rate gap with the US, which tends to strengthen the yen. For a euro investor an unhedged Nikkei fund carries that yen exposure in full; a hedged share class removes it but pays the difference between euro and yen short-term rates.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 14.3x trailing earnings, an earnings yield of 6.98% (1÷14.33) and a 40.2% discount to the S&P 500. The fund is 6.73% below its 50-day average, with Korea's Kospi, a large weight, 21.48% below its own after the fall in chip makers. China's October producer prices rose 5.7% on the year, the fastest since June 2022, which helps the profits of its industrial and mining companies but has not lifted consumer prices, up 0.7% (CNBC). A weaker dollar, as today, eases the cost of dollar debt in emerging economies and the pressure on their central banks to raise rates, effects that help local share prices whatever the investor's home currency; the currency conversion itself largely cancels for a euro holder, since the euro usually moves with emerging currencies against the dollar.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield of 4.88%, a VIX in the elevated band and an index in which Nvidia, one of its biggest weights, fell on a governance question today. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; the STOXX 600 is 1.04% below its record, so the margin left by the cheaper valuation is smaller than last week. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 15.4x after the fall in chip makers, and a Bank of Japan that may raise rates in December. - Emerging markets: Moderate. The cheapest of the four on trailing earnings, with Korea and Taiwan carrying the risk of further swings in chip shares.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The September CPI figures in the table are the latest FRED holds; October's report is due on Tuesday 10 November, and with headline inflation at 3.72% in September, a higher reading would add to the case for a Fed rise in December.

Other economic releases today (web search)

China's producer prices rose 5.7% on the year in October against 5.3% expected, driven by mining and raw materials, while consumer prices slowed to 0.7% and core inflation to 0.8% from 1.0% (CNBC). Shanghai rose 0.32% on the day.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 25 bp to 4.00% on 5 November; SONIA, its overnight proxy, rose to 3.98% that day from 3.73% before the decision. The Fed's range is 3.75% to 4.00% ahead of its 8 to 9 December meeting.

Government Bond Yields

The USA day change is against the 6 Nov 2026 curve from the same feed.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 9 Nov 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +32 bp, positive, 7 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold, −3 bp on the day. - 10Y-3M spread: +64 bp, positive, no recession signal, −3 bp on the day.

OAT-Bund Spread: 148 bp (10-year OAT 4.75% against Bund 3.27%, Trading Economics, 9 Nov 2026 intraday).

Cheaper oil pulled yields down across most of Europe: the 10-year OAT fell 3 bp and the gilt 2 bp, while German yields were unchanged to 3 bp higher, so the OAT-Bund spread narrowed to 148 bp. France still pays a premium that reflects its difficulty in passing a budget. In the US the curve still slopes upward, with 32 bp between the 2-year and 10-year yields on 9 November; the short end rose more than the long end on Monday (2-year +5 bp, 10-year +2 bp), as it had on Friday's jobs report. The 10-year is 36 bp below the 9 October curve and well below its peak above 5.30% in October, the highest in two decades (AP). Unlike most European bonds, Japanese yields rose: the 2-year JGB rose 5 bp to 1.78% on the Bank of Japan's December signal. UK third-quarter GDP on Thursday is the next test for gilts (Trading Economics).

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 9 Nov 2026: 3M 4.24%, 6M 4.26%, 1Y 4.38%, 2Y 4.56%, 3Y 4.58%, 5Y 4.67%, 7Y 4.76%, 10Y 4.88%, 20Y 5.29%, 30Y 5.26%; 2-to-10 slope +32 bp. Day change against the 6 Nov 2026 curve: 3M +5 bp, 6M +3 bp, 1Y +5 bp, 2Y +5 bp, 3Y −1 bp, 5Y +3 bp, 7Y +2 bp, 10Y +2 bp, 20Y 0 bp, 30Y 0 bp. The 3-month bill at 4.24% is 36.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%.

The 9 November curve rises from 4.24% at three months to 5.29% at 20 years, with the 30-year slightly lower at 5.26%. Since the 9 October curve it has fallen by 24 bp at the 2-year and 36 bp at the 10-year, while the 3-month bill fell only 1 bp, so the curve is lower and flatter than a month ago.

Euro area AAA government curve, 6 Nov 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.59%, 1Y 2.84%, 2Y 2.93%, 5Y 3.02%, 10Y 3.29%, 20Y 3.58%, 30Y 3.57%; 2-to-10 slope +36 bp. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 9 Nov 2026), overlaid, differ from the plotted 6 Nov 2026 curve by at most 7 bp, at the 30Y (3.64% against 3.57%); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so only a gap well beyond that is a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.59% at three months to 3.58% at 20 years. Since the 8 October curve the 10-year has fallen 23 bp and the 2-year 10 bp, while the 3-month rate rose 6 bp, so the euro curve has also flattened over the month.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 6 Nov 2026 vs 5 Nov 2026. Credit spreads are the 6 November close; today's session is not in them yet.

US high yield at 342 bp and investment grade at 93 bp are both in their normal ranges (300 to 500 bp and 80 to 150 bp); euro high yield is 349 bp. These are 6 November figures and do not yet show today's rally.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

The US real yield of 2.66% is a market price, quoted on inflation-protected Treasuries, and the 2.22% expected inflation is derived from it; the euro figure works the other way, subtracting a survey's 2.02% expected inflation from the AAA yield, so the euro real yield of 1.27% is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey's five-year horizon is shorter than the bond's ten years. On the US figures for 9 November and the euro figures for 6 November, the 159 bp gap between US and euro 10-year yields is 20 bp of expected inflation and 139 bp of real yield. The US real yield rose 3 bp from 2.63% on 6 November, while the breakeven fell 1 bp.

The US–euro real rate gap is not an investment opportunity

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and today's 139 bp is under that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, Bund scarcity, US fiscal supply), not a trade a EUR-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a dollar bet rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.66% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 9 Nov 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond.

Today's 2 bp rise at the 10-year cost a holder about 0.2%, or 0.4 months of coupon.

On settled figures the 10-year Treasury at 4.88% pays more than the S&P 500's 4.18% earnings yield, while in Europe the STOXX 600's 5.51% earnings yield is 2.22 pp above the AAA 10-year. Neither figure says which asset will return more; it describes what each pays today, and an equity holder receives only the dividend and buyback part of the earnings in cash. The 2-year Treasury loses 0.19% for a 10 bp rise, half a month of coupon, against 1.48% or 3.4 months for the 30-year, which pays 70 bp more; with October inflation due on Tuesday and the odds of a December Fed rise high, the short end gives up little yield for much less exposure to a surprise.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 19:54 CET; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 9 Nov 2026 settlement vs 6 Nov 2026 settlement. Prices are the 9 November settlements of the contracts named.

Brent's January contract (BZF27) fell 5.85% to settle at $92.57, within a 52-week range of $58.72 to $126.10, on hopes for a US-Iran settlement after President Trump's remarks (AP). WTI's December contract (CLZ26) fell 4.38% to $86.85, in a 52-week range of $54.98 to $119.48. Gold rose 0.97% to $4,114.50, 26.3% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January, helped by the weaker dollar. Silver rose 1.45% to $52.693, 56.6% below its all-time high of $121.300, also from 29 January. Copper rose 1.72% to $6.3445, 7.1% below its all-time high of $6.8300 set on 22 September. Natural gas rose 7.34% to $3.218, within a 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827. Every contract is the same one as in Friday's briefing, and none expires within the next few days.

Sector & Theme Highlights

Every one of the S&P 500's eleven sector funds rose on Monday. Industrials (XLI) led with +3.82%, with Caterpillar up 7.2%, followed by technology (XLK) at +3.73% and consumer discretionary (XLY) at +2.92%, where Tesla rose 5.5% and Amazon 2.9% (Yahoo Finance). The technology fund rose even though Nvidia, one of its largest holdings, fell 4.3%, while AMD rose 13.3% and Broadcom 8.8%. Energy (XLE) rose least, +0.52%, as oil fell, and consumer staples (XLP) rose 0.90%. Lower fuel costs lifted airlines and cruise lines, with United Airlines up 6.8% and Carnival 4.2% (Yahoo Finance), and Constellation Energy rose 10.5% (Yahoo Finance) after its quarterly profit and revenue beat forecasts (AP).

AI-related shares rebounded today from last week's fall, which came from worries that the Democrats' control of Congress after the 3 November midterm elections could lead to tighter rules on data centres and their power use (AP). In the other direction, Citi cut its view of US, global and European technology shares to neutral from overweight (CNBC).

Top Stories (Global)

• Oil falls about 6%: Brent's January contract fell 5.85% to settle at $92.57 after President Trump said renewed strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if talks progress; it was above $112 at the start of November (AP).
• Nvidia inquiry: Nvidia's board is investigating chief executive Jensen Huang's relationship with an executive US intelligence reportedly believes gathered information for China; the board sees no reason to believe secrets were compromised, and the shares fell 4.3% (AP, CNBC; Yahoo Finance).
• Chip rebound elsewhere: AMD rose 13.3% after an Oppenheimer upgrade and Broadcom 8.8%; Taiwan's TAIEX rose 4.94% (CNBC; Yahoo Finance).
• China producer prices: October PPI rose 5.7% on the year against 5.3% expected, the fastest since June 2022; consumer prices slowed to 0.7% (CNBC).
• Bank of Japan: chief economist Seisaku Kameda signalled a likely rate rise in December; the 10-year JGB yield rose 3 bp to 2.68% (Trading Economics).
• French yields lowest since September: the 10-year OAT fell to 4.75%, narrowing its spread over the Bund to 148 bp (Trading Economics).
• Constellation Energy rose 10.5% after quarterly profit and revenue beat forecasts (AP; Yahoo Finance).

Looking Ahead

• Tuesday 10 November: US consumer price index for October (BLS).
• Wednesday 11 November: Veterans Day; US stock markets open, bond market closed.
• Thursday 12 November: UK third-quarter GDP (Trading Economics).
• Friday 13 November: US producer price index for October (BLS); second estimate of euro-area third-quarter GDP (Trading Economics).
• Earnings this week: CoreWeave, Cisco and Applied Materials (CNBC).
• 17 November: General Motors moves its listing to the Nasdaq (CNBC).
• Further out: the Fed meets on 8 and 9 December; Christine Lagarde leaves the ECB on 7 February 2027 (as cited in the 29 Oct briefing).

Market closures - The US bond market, not stocks, Wednesday 11 Nov 2026: Veterans Day. - Further out: Brazil 20 Nov 2026 (Black Awareness Day); Japan 23 Nov 2026 (Labour Thanksgiving Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (9 Nov 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 6 Nov 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q4); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures, live yields and FX via Yahoo Finance (taken 19:54 CET, with the Americas indices, EEM, EZA and the commodity settlements at the 9 Nov 2026 close); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, AP, CNBC, Bloomberg, Anadolu Agency, MoneyToday).