2026 10 22

Global Financial Briefing — Thursday, 22 October 2026

Figures reflect the 22 Oct close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the German, French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 22 Oct close; the euro AAA curve is the ECB's 21 Oct curve, the latest published.

Market Overview

Doubts about the money being spent on artificial intelligence returned overnight, a day after Super Micro's outlook had eased them. Meta raised the bottom of this year's capital spending range to $135 billion from $130 billion and was cautious about 2027, while Tesla cut its 2026 spending target to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion; investors sold both before the open, punishing more spending and less spending alike (ZeroHedge), though Tesla was little changed during the session (Trading Economics). Asia's chip and technology shares fell hardest. Korea's Kospi fell 3.52% to 5,533.77, giving back all of Wednesday's 3.29% gain, for its lowest close since April, with SK hynix down 5.49% and Samsung Electronics 4.03% (Trading Economics). Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.65% to its lowest close in almost three months as SoftBank Group lost 6.9% and Tokyo Electron 7%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 3.03%, its steepest daily fall in seven months, with Alibaba down 6% and Lenovo 11.8% (Trading Economics). The Shanghai Composite fell 1.48% to within 0.22% of its 52-week low, and the larger-company CSI 300 was briefly 20% below its June high (ZeroHedge).

Oil added to the pressure. Attacks on a Saudi Aramco oil field and an airport in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province killed at least three people, the US ordered non-emergency government staff and their families to leave the kingdom, and the New York Times reported that US and Israeli planners were preparing possible strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections (ZeroHedge; Trading Economics). The December Brent contract (BZZ26) settled at $113.17, 4.00% above Wednesday's settlement, having already reached $112.43 in the morning, its highest since May (ZeroHedge; NewsLooks). Europe's shares fell with Asia's: the STOXX 600 lost 1.05%, the Euro STOXX 50 1.94% and the CAC 40 1.39%, and euro-area bank shares fell sharply (Trading Economics). France's borrowing costs rose further, after Wednesday's 9 bp rise, while Germany's fell: the French 10-year yield rose 7 bp to 5.08%, a new 24-year high, and the German 10-year fell 7 bp to 3.34%, so France now pays about 174 bp more than Germany for ten-year money, against about 158 bp on Wednesday evening, with Moody's review of France's Aa3 rating due on Friday (Trading Economics).

In New York the selling was concentrated in the largest technology companies. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.90% and the S&P 500 1.21%, while the Dow ended almost unchanged (+0.02%); the Nasdaq Composite had its worst session since June (Yahoo Finance; BBN Times). Most S&P 500 members rose during the morning, but falls in the biggest companies outweighed them (NewsLooks). Meta closed about 7% lower after revenue beat expectations but profit fell short, and Lam Research 11.76% lower at $230.15, as its guidance for the next quarter fell short of forecasts despite record revenue of $8.22 billion (NewsLooks; BBN Times). Nvidia lost 3.9% during the session, while Procter & Gamble rose 5.8% after keeping its full-year forecasts and Lockheed Martin 6.6% on better-than-expected results (Trading Economics; NewsLooks). Investors bought government bonds: the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.96%, 17 bp lower on the day, which Yahoo Finance reported as on course for its largest one-day fall in more than two years, and the 5-year fell 17 bp and the 30-year 13 bp (US Treasury par curve, 22 Oct), even though weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000, their lowest since July. The yen gained 0.67% against the dollar to 157.01, while gold settled 2.16% lower and silver 4.68% lower.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 22 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 0.54% below its 50-day average, 5.21% above its 200-day average and 2.31% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq 100 is 3.04% below its 50-day average and 7.66% below its 52-week high of 31,361.37: besides Meta, Nvidia and Lam Research, the chip makers AMD, Broadcom and Intel were 3% to 4% lower before the open (ZeroHedge), and CoreWeave, which rents out AI computing capacity, fell 7.1% during the session (NewsLooks). Tesla was little changed during the session, down 0.8% according to Trading Economics, after its profit beat estimates and its revenue fell short. The Dow is 0.95% above its 50-day average. Brazil's Ibovespa fell 1.15% to 204,120.12, 9.67% above its 50-day average, three days before the presidential runoff on 25 October.

Europe

European data reflects the 22 Oct 2026 close.

In Paris the CAC 40 closed at 7,811.26, led lower by Legrand (−5.85%), Schneider Electric (−5.80%) and BNP Paribas (−4.88%) (Trading Economics). Hermès fell as much as 9% during the session after its quarterly sales missed forecasts (ZeroHedge), and Kering opened 3.1% lower (Trading Economics). The CAC 40 is 4.15% below its 50-day average and 4.93% below its 200-day average, still the weakest of the major European indices against its trend. In Frankfurt the DAX fell 1.07%, as Siemens Energy lost 8.56%, Infineon about 5.8% and Siemens about 4%; SAP rose about 3.2% after reporting record quarterly revenue and raising its full-year outlook, and the diagnostics company Qiagen 4.9% after agreeing to a €10.8 billion takeover by the private equity firm EQT (Trading Economics). Across the STOXX 600, mining and bank shares were the weakest sectors and telecoms, food and drink and health care the only ones to rise in the morning, with Nestlé up as much as 2.7% and the Belgian drug maker UCB as much as 16% after raising its guidance (ZeroHedge). The STOXX 600 is 0.79% below its 50-day average and 3.87% below its 52-week high. Switzerland's SMI, heavy in Nestlé and drug makers, was almost unchanged (−0.03%), and the FTSE 100 fell only 0.26%.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects the 22 Oct 2026 close.

The Kospi is now 20.99% below its 2 October close of 7,003.74 (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing) and 16.52% below its 50-day average. Battery makers fell with the chip makers: Samsung SDI lost 7.58% and LG Energy Solution 5.22% (Trading Economics). The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 3.00%, as expected, after raising it by a quarter point in July and again in August, and raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6% on the strength of chip exports (Trading Economics). In Tokyo, Kioxia fell 6.8% and Advantest 6%; Trading Economics also points to Japan's dependence on Middle Eastern oil. The Nikkei is 5.10% below its 50-day average and 13.63% below its 52-week high of 72,831.73. In Hong Kong, SMIC fell 6.4%, Tencent 3.4% and Xiaomi 3.9%; Trading Economics adds that China's third-quarter growth, stronger than expected, reduced hopes of further government support while consumer spending stays weak. The Hang Seng is 7.91% below its 50-day average and 1.85% above its 52-week low of 22,518.00. Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.43%, 0.42% below its 200-day average.

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa reflect the 22 Oct close.

EEM, which trades in New York after Asia has closed, fell 2.91%, in line with the falls in Korea (−3.52%) and Hong Kong (−3.03%), so the fund and its local markets agree today. India fell least: the Nifty lost 0.54% and the Sensex 0.62%, the Sensex falling for a third straight session (19, 21 and 22 October; markets were shut on 20 October), to its lowest in over a week; Trading Economics put the losses down to concern that Brent above $110 would raise India's oil import bill and inflation, and to the Reserve Bank of India having signalled that further rate rises may be needed. Reliance Industries and the food-delivery company Eternal, whose profit missed estimates, were among the largest fallers (Trading Economics). South Africa's fund (EZA) fell 2.24%. Turkey's central bank cut its one-week repo rate to 36% from 37%, as expected (Trading Economics). For a euro investor, the euro's 0.12% fall against the dollar trimmed the loss slightly, leaving EEM down about 2.8% in euros.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 116; 112 for the Nikkei proxy); shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM, at the 22 Oct close.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 24.3x gives an earnings yield of 4.12% (1÷24.25). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 4.96% (US Treasury par curve, 22 Oct) the earnings yield gap is −0.84 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.64% (US Treasury real curve, 22 Oct) the gap is +1.48 pp; the 2.32 pp between the two is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 27.0x has an earnings yield of 3.71%, 1.25 pp below the 10-year Treasury. Today showed how much of the index's direction depends on what a few very large companies say about their AI spending: Meta raised its spending range and fell, Tesla cut its plan and did not rise, and the S&P 500 closed 1.21% lower although most of its members had been higher in the morning (NewsLooks; ZeroHedge).

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 17.6x gives an earnings yield of 5.67% (1÷17.63); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.43% (ECB YC API, 21 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.24 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund at 3.34% (Trading Economics) it is +2.33 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.39% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.28 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 37.6% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (24.3x against 17.6x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside.

France remains where the region's risk sits. The CAC 40 at 16.4x has an earnings yield of 6.08% (1÷16.44), 1.00 pp above the French 10-year yield of 5.08%, about the same margin as on Wednesday because French shares fell as French bond yields rose. The DAX at 18.0x yields 5.56%, 2.22 pp over the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 16.6x yields 6.01%, 0.68 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.33%. The French 10-year yield of 5.08% is above the 4.96% at which the US 10-year settled (US Treasury par curve, 22 Oct): France is paying more than the US government to borrow for ten years. Moody's review on Friday, which starts from a negative outlook on France's Aa3 rating (Trading Economics), and the protests planned for Saturday are the next tests. A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so their earnings in euros still move with the currency.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E is 16.5x (earnings yield 6.06%), 3.18 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 2.88% (Trading Economics). The index fell 2.65% as SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron, Advantest and Kioxia, its links to AI spending, fell 6% to 7% each, and as oil rose for a country that depends on Middle Eastern oil (Trading Economics). The Bank of Japan meets on 29–30 October and is widely expected to hold, with a rise possible in December; Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target and warned against delaying policy adjustments (Trading Economics). The yen rose 0.67% against the dollar and about 0.8% against the euro, so a euro investor in an unhedged Japan fund lost about 1.9% today, less than the index's 2.65%.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 13.2x, the cheapest index in the table and a 45.4% discount to the S&P 500. Today showed what the discount is paying for: Korea, whose largest companies sell memory chips into US AI spending, swung from a 3.29% gain on Wednesday to a 3.52% fall today on the same question about that spending, and Brent above $110 weighs on the large oil importers in the index (Korea, India, China). For a euro investor the currency effect today was small (the euro fell 0.12% against the dollar). The larger risk is a Fed that may raise rates again by December, after its rise to 3.75–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing): money markets priced about 25 bp of further rises by year-end on the morning of 22 October (ZeroHedge), which tends to draw money out of emerging markets and raises the cost of their dollar debts, whatever the investor's home currency.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a settled 10-year yield of 4.96% after a 17 bp fall in one session, and an index that fell more than 1% on doubts about AI spending by a few of its largest companies although most of its members rose in the morning. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; against that, a French 10-year yield at 5.08%, about 174 bp over Germany, with Moody's review on Friday, and Brent above $110. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 16.5x, but an index led by SoftBank Group and a few chip companies, exposed to oil, with a BOJ meeting on 29–30 October. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with Korea's chip makers, oil and Brazil's 25 October runoff as the near-term risks.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

Weekly jobless claims fell to 194,000 in the week to 17 October, below the 200,000 expected and the lowest since July, though continuing claims rose to 1.728 million (Trading Economics). Consumer prices rose 3.72% on a year earlier in September and core prices 2.57%, while employers added only 29,000 jobs; the Fed meets on 27–28 October, and Treasury yields fell today despite the lower claims figure.

Other economic releases today (web search)

Euro-area consumer confidence is a survey balance: the share of households expecting their finances and the economy to improve minus the share expecting them to worsen, so −17.9 means pessimists clearly outnumber optimists, and the fall from −16.5 shows the gap widening. It is the lowest reading since May, below the −17.0 expected, and Trading Economics attributes it mainly to high oil prices, inflation and the outlook for interest rates. It is a flash estimate; the final figure follows on 29 October.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting and meets next on 27–28 October (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing). The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, its second rise this year after June's move to 2.25% (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing). The BOJ raised its rate to 1.25% on 18 September (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing) and meets on 29–30 October. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing); on 22 October traders priced at least three quarter-point rises before April 2027, with the first possibly at its 5 November meeting (Trading Economics).

Government Bond Yields

The USA day change is against the 21 Oct 2026 curve from the same feed.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 22 Oct 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +31 bp, positive, 6 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold, −1 bp on the day. - 10Y-3M spread: +74 bp, positive, no recession signal, −14 bp on the day.

OAT-Bund Spread: 174 bp (10-year OAT 5.08% against Bund 3.34%, Trading Economics, 22 Oct 2026 intraday).

The US spreads are what investors normally demand for lending for longer and do not signal an expected recession. The rally lowered yields by 16 to 17 bp from two to ten years and by 13 bp at 30 years, so the 2-to-10 slope barely changed, while the 10-year-to-3-month spread narrowed 14 bp because the 3-month bill yield fell only 3 bp. In Europe the day split the euro area in two. German yields fell 7 to 8 bp across the curve as investors sought safety, while the French 10-year rose 7 bp to 5.08%, its highest since 2002, so the gap over Germany widened to about 174 bp from about 158 bp on Wednesday evening; during the morning ZeroHedge put it at 177 bp, the widest since 2011. Italy's 10-year was almost unchanged at 4.60%, 126 bp over Germany against about 117 bp on Wednesday, so this time the selling was of France alone rather than of every heavily indebted borrower. Gilts gained, the 10-year falling 5 bp to 5.33% and the 30-year 7 bp to 5.72%, as Trading Economics reports investors moving from euro-area bonds into UK ones, and Japan's 10-year fell 1 bp to 2.88%, a six-week low.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 22 Oct 2026: 3M 4.22%, 6M 4.29%, 1Y 4.41%, 2Y 4.65%, 3Y 4.72%, 5Y 4.78%, 7Y 4.86%, 10Y 4.96%, 20Y 5.32%, 30Y 5.29%; 2-to-10 slope +31 bp. Day change against the 21 Oct 2026 curve: 3M −3 bp, 6M −6 bp, 1Y −11 bp, 2Y −16 bp, 3Y −17 bp, 5Y −17 bp, 7Y −17 bp, 10Y −17 bp, 20Y −15 bp, 30Y −13 bp. The 3-month bill at 4.22% is 34.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%.

The US curve rises from 4.22% at three months to 5.32% at 20 years, with the 30-year 3 bp below the 20-year. Against 22 September the 2-year is 6 bp lower and the 10-year and 30-year are unchanged, so the 2-to-10 slope has widened from 25 bp to 31 bp; the 17 bp fall at ten years on 22 October undid the whole of the rise there since 22 September.

Euro area AAA government curve, 21 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.59%, 1Y 2.89%, 2Y 3.03%, 5Y 3.16%, 10Y 3.43%, 20Y 3.71%, 30Y 3.68%; 2-to-10 slope +40 bp. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 22 Oct 2026), overlaid, differ from the plotted 21 Oct 2026 curve by at most 9 bp, at the 10Y (3.34% against 3.43%); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so only a gap well beyond that is a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.59% at three months to 3.71% at 20 years, with the 30-year 3 bp below the 20-year. Against 21 September it is 12 bp lower at two years and 4 bp lower at ten, so its 2-to-10 slope has widened from 33 bp to 40 bp, by falling at the short end. The 9 bp gap at ten years between today's Bund quote and the plotted 21 October curve is mostly today's 7 bp fall in the Bund yield, which will appear in the ECB's curve for 22 October, published tomorrow.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 21 Oct 2026 vs 20 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 21 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

US high-yield spreads, the extra yield on lower-rated company bonds over Treasuries, were 327 bp on 21 October, in the lower part of their normal 300–500 bp range; investment-grade spreads were 88 bp, near the bottom of their 80–150 bp range, and euro high-yield spreads 338 bp. These describe Wednesday's rally, not today's selling. The VIX, the index of expected volatility in the S&P 500, closed at 16.68 on 21 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The US leg is dated 22 October and the euro leg 21 October, the latest curve the ECB has published. The 153 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 28 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.32% against 2.04%) and 125 bp of real-rate difference (2.64% against 1.39%), so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield fell 12 bp on 22 October, from 2.76% on 21 October.

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 125 bp on these figures is under that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.64% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 22 Oct 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Computed from the US Treasury par curve, 22 October.

The settled 10-year fell 17 bp on 22 October, a gain of about 1.3% for a holder at its modified duration of 7.81, or about three months of coupon, in one session. The French 10-year shows the opposite case: at a duration similar to the US 10-year's, its 7 bp rise today cost a holder roughly 0.5%, more than a month of its 5.08% coupon. The 30-year Treasury pays 0.64 pp more than the 2-year for nearly eight times as much price movement per 10 bp, and with the central banks in the US, the UK and Japan all considering further rises, short maturities keep most of the income with far less exposure to swings like these.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 18:34 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

The yen was the strongest currency in the table, up 0.67% against the dollar to 157.01; earlier in the day it reached its strongest against the euro in almost a year (ZeroHedge). The Swiss franc gained 0.23%, and the ICE dollar index slipped 0.11% to 101.67, so the dollar was not where investors went for safety today: they went to the yen and government bonds. The euro fell 0.12% to $1.1221, and the pound was unchanged at $1.3393.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 22 Oct 2026 settlement vs 21 Oct 2026 settlement.

Every row shows the same contract as Wednesday's table, so the levels are comparable. The December Brent contract (BZZ26) settled at $113.17, 4.00% above Wednesday's settlement of $108.82, having reached $112.43 in the morning, already its highest since May (ZeroHedge; NewsLooks); before this session it had moved between about $97 and $112 in October (NewsLooks). Against the attacks in Saudi Arabia and the reports of possible strikes on Iran, crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are close to their pre-war level, although refined-product shipments remain restricted (Trading Economics). The December WTI contract (CLZ26) settled 2.39% higher at $99.47, after trading briefly above $100 (ZeroHedge), so Brent's premium over WTI widened to $13.70 from $11.67. December Brent is 10.25% below the 52-week high of $126.10 set by an earlier contract (range $58.72 to $126.10), and December WTI 16.75% below its $119.48 high (range $54.98 to $119.48).

Gold settled 2.16% lower at $4,060.40, 27.3% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026, and silver 4.68% lower at $55.007, 54.7% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same day, both falling on a day when Treasury yields and the dollar fell. Copper settled 2.76% lower at $6.398, 6.3% below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September. Natural gas rose 0.22% to $2.796, in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 22 Oct close): consumer staples (XLP) +3.31% led, with Procter & Gamble up 5.8% during the session, followed by utilities (XLU) +2.07%, health care (XLV) +1.32%, real estate (XLRE) +1.09% and financials (XLF) +1.09%; materials (XLB) +0.72% also rose. Technology (XLK) −3.29% was the weakest, followed by communication services (XLC) −1.42%, where Meta is one of the largest holdings, industrials (XLI) −0.94%, energy (XLE) −0.87%, which fell even as oil rose, and consumer discretionary (XLY) −0.45%. Trading Economics describes a continuing rotation out of chip shares; the money went to consumer staples, health care and utilities, whose earnings depend less on the economy.

• AI spending doubts: Meta's higher spending plans were sold, Tesla's lower ones only before the open, and Lam Research's outlook hit chip-equipment makers; chip and AI shares fell in Seoul (Kospi −3.52%), Tokyo (Nikkei −2.65%), Hong Kong (Hang Seng −3.03%), Frankfurt (Infineon about −5.8%) and New York (Nasdaq 100 −2.90%).
• Oil and the Gulf: attacks in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province and reports of possible strikes on Iran lifted Brent to its highest since May, hurting the oil importers Japan and Korea.
• French borrowing costs: the French 10-year yield rose to a new 24-year high of 5.08%, about 174 bp over Germany, the day before Moody's review.
• Safety: the 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 bp to settle below 5%, at 4.96%, Bund and gilt yields fell, and the yen rose.

Top Stories (Global)

• AI spending doubts sink technology shares. Meta closed about 7% lower after raising the bottom of its spending range and Lam Research 11.76% lower on its outlook; the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90%, and the Nasdaq Composite had its worst session since June (Yahoo Finance; BBN Times; Trading Economics; NewsLooks).
• Asia's sharpest fall in months. The Kospi fell 3.52% to its lowest close since April, the Nikkei 2.65% and the Hang Seng 3.03%, its steepest fall in seven months, with SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron, SK hynix, Alibaba and Lenovo among the largest fallers (Trading Economics).
• Attacks in Saudi Arabia lift Brent to $113. The December contract settled 4.00% higher at $113.17 after at least three people were killed in attacks on an Aramco oil field and an airport; the US ordered non-emergency staff to leave, and the New York Times reported possible US and Israeli strikes on Iran after the midterms (ZeroHedge; Trading Economics).
• French 10-year yield at a new 24-year high. At 5.08%, about 174 bp above Germany's and above the 4.96% at which the US 10-year settled, the day before Moody's review of France's Aa3 rating (Trading Economics).
• Treasuries rally. The 10-year yield settled 17 bp lower at 4.96%, on course for its largest one-day fall in more than two years according to Yahoo Finance, despite jobless claims at their lowest since July (US Treasury par curve; Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics).
• SAP and Qiagen rise in a falling DAX. SAP gained about 3.2% on record quarterly revenue and a higher outlook, and Qiagen 4.9% on a €10.8 billion takeover by EQT, while Siemens Energy fell 8.56% (Trading Economics).
• Bank of Korea holds at 3.00%; Turkey cuts to 36%. Both decisions were expected (Trading Economics).

Looking Ahead

• Friday 23 October: flash October purchasing managers' surveys for the euro area, Germany, France, the UK, the US and Japan; UK September retail sales; Russia's rate decision; Moody's review of France's Aa3 credit rating; Japan's September consumer prices, released in the early hours of Friday, European time (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing; Trading Economics).
• Saturday 24 October: further protests planned in France (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing).
• Further out: Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October; the National Assembly resumes its debate on the revenue measures of France's 2027 budget on 27 October (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing); the Fed meets on 27–28 October; the UK budget on 28 October; the final euro-area consumer confidence figure on 29 October; the Bank of Japan meets on 29–30 October; US midterm elections on 3 November; the Bank of England meets on 5 November (Trading Economics).

Market closures - None in the next five days (23 Oct to 27 Oct 2026). - Further out: Brazil 2 Nov 2026 (Dia de Finados); Japan 3 Nov 2026 (Culture Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (22 Oct 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 21 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q3); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures and FX via Yahoo Finance (FX quoted at 18:34 CEST, all other rows at the 22 Oct close or settlement); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, ZeroHedge, NewsLooks, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, BBN Times).