2026 10 23

Global Financial Briefing — Friday, 23 October 2026

Figures reflect the 23 Oct close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 23 Oct close; the euro AAA curve is the ECB's 22 Oct curve, the latest published.

Market Overview

Technology shares steadied after Thursday's sell-off, but oil extended Thursday's rise (December Brent had settled 4.00% higher at $113.17) and the selling moved to the rest of the market. The Nasdaq 100 ended almost unchanged, 1.17 points below Thursday's close, while the Dow fell 1.23% and the S&P 500 0.52% (Yahoo Finance). Yemen's Houthis stepped up their attacks on Saudi energy and transport sites, including Aramco facilities at Yanbu and Shaybah, Aramco told staff to leave its Dhahran headquarters, and reports of US diplomatic evacuations and unconfirmed explosions near the Strait of Hormuz added to the unease (Investing.com). The December WTI contract (CLZ26) settled at $103.27, 3.82% above Thursday's settlement, and the January Brent contract (BZF27) at $111.70, up 2.80%. The Dow's fall was broad, with Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs, American Express and Home Depot accounting for about half of it (Yahoo Finance quotes; see the Americas note below).

The STOXX 600, CAC 40 and DAX fell less than on Thursday: the STOXX 600 lost 0.31%, the CAC 40 0.36% and the DAX 0.75%. Company results did most of the damage: Volvo Cars fell 24.2% to a record low after a larger-than-expected third-quarter operating loss and a plan to cut 2,500 jobs, and Kering 16.6% after Gucci's third-quarter sales fell (Investing.com; Yahoo Finance). The October purchasing managers' surveys showed euro-area business growing at its slowest pace in four months, with France back in contraction at 48.4, while the French 10-year yield eased to 5.04% from Thursday evening's 5.08% during the session (Trading Economics; Marc to Market). After the European close, Moody's left France's Aa3 rating and its negative outlook unchanged at the end of a scheduled review, which it said was not a rating action; bond investors had largely prepared for a downgrade (CNBC; Seoul Economic Daily). In Asia, the Kospi recovered from an intraday low of 5,305.98 to close 0.30% higher, helped by a 4.4% rise in SK hynix after it shelved a US listing of its Solidigm unit, and the Hang Seng rose 0.69% and the Shanghai Composite 0.89%, while the Nikkei 225 lost 0.34% (Coin Edition; Yahoo Finance). Japan's consumer prices rose 2.1% on a year earlier in September, the core measure above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the first time this year (Marc to Market).

US government bonds gave back a little of Thursday's rally. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.00%, up 4 bp on the day, after falling 17 bp to 4.96% on 22 October, and the 5-year rose 4 bp to 4.82% (US Treasury par curve, 23 Oct). The flash US purchasing managers' survey showed activity still expanding quickly (composite 57.6, from 58.4) and companies raising their selling prices at the fastest rate since August 2022, which S&P Global linked to the renewed rise in oil (Seoul Economic Daily). On the morning of 23 October, Fed funds futures put the chance of a rate rise at next week's Fed meeting at about 5%, down from 37% at the end of September (Yahoo Finance). The dollar firmed (ICE dollar index +0.21%), and the Swiss franc was the weakest of the major currencies, down 0.64% against the dollar.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 23 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 0.99% below its 50-day average, 4.56% above its 200-day average and 2.82% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq 100 is 2.92% below its 50-day average and 7.66% below its 52-week high of 31,361.37; AMD rose 1.74% after Thursday's falls while Nvidia slipped 0.59%, and Meta lost a further 0.96% after its 7% drop on Thursday (Yahoo Finance quotes). The Dow is price-weighted, so a stock's effect depends on its price change in dollars: the index moves about 6.15 points for each dollar any member moves. Caterpillar fell $17.05 (−2.42%), about 105 points; Goldman Sachs $15.62 (−1.75%), about 96 points; American Express $11.95 (−3.67%), about 73 points, after third-quarter revenue of $14.5 billion fell short of the $14.8 billion expected and it announced about 3,500 job cuts; and Home Depot $7.90 (−2.41%), about 49 points. Chevron, up $6.53 (+2.88%) with oil, added about 40 points (Yahoo Finance quotes; Yahoo Finance). The Dow is now 0.20% below its 50-day average. Brazil's Ibovespa rose 0.47% to 205,082.56, 9.32% above its 50-day average, two days before Sunday's presidential runoff.

Europe

European data reflects today's close (23 Oct).

Kering, Gucci's owner, closed 16.6% lower at €178.12 after the brand's third-quarter sales fell, undermining hopes for its recovery plan, and Holcim rose about 5% after raising its full-year earnings forecast (Yahoo Finance; Investing.com). Chip shares in Europe followed Thursday's fall in AI-linked stocks, with ASML, Infineon and STMicroelectronics 2% to 6% lower during the day (Investing.com). The CAC 40 is 4.11% below its 50-day average, 5.21% below its 200-day average and 3.70% above its 52-week low of 7,505.27, still the weakest major European index against its trend. The DAX is 1.72% below its 50-day average but 1.22% above its 200-day. The STOXX 600 is 0.97% below its 50-day average and lost more than 1% over the week (Investing.com). Switzerland's SMI fell 0.59% and remains 2.52% above its 50-day average and 1.41% below its 52-week high.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects today's close (23 Oct).

After Thursday's falls of 2.65% to 3.52% across Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul, Asia steadied. The Kospi swung from a low of 5,305.98, more than 4% down, to a small gain, and is still 15.90% below its 50-day average (Coin Edition). Tokyo's falling shares outnumbered rising ones and the Nikkei's volatility index jumped about 17%; the Nikkei is 5.26% below its 50-day average and 13.92% below its 52-week high of 72,831.73. Hong Kong rose with electric-vehicle makers; the Hang Seng is 6.89% below its 50-day average and 2.56% above its 52-week low of 22,518.00. The Shanghai Composite is 3.25% above its 52-week low. Australia's ASX 200 was flat, though Australia's flash composite PMI fell to 47.7 from 51.3, a contraction (Marc to Market). Taiwan's market was closed for a typhoon.

Emerging Markets

All rows reflect the 23 Oct close.

EEM, which trades in New York after Asia has closed, rose 0.47%, in line with the local closes in Korea (+0.30%), Hong Kong (+0.69%) and Shanghai (+0.89%), so the fund and its markets agree; Taiwan, one of the index's largest markets, did not trade. India fell: the Nifty lost 0.39% to 22,600.00, 1.89% above its 52-week low of 22,179.90, as the rupee weakened to about 94.98 per dollar (Marc to Market). South Africa's fund fell 1.13%. For a euro investor, the euro's 0.21% fall against the dollar added to the gain, leaving EEM up about 0.7% in euros.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 117; 113 for the Nikkei proxy); shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM; the US-listed proxies are priced at the 23 Oct close.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 24.1x gives an earnings yield of 4.14% (1÷24.13). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 5.00% (US Treasury par curve, 23 Oct) the earnings yield gap is −0.86 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.66% (US Treasury real curve, 23 Oct) the gap is +1.48 pp; the 2.34 pp between the two is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 27.0x has an earnings yield of 3.71%, 1.29 pp below the 10-year Treasury. Today's pattern was the reverse of Thursday's: the large technology companies held steady while most other shares fell, and the S&P 500 at 7,623.68 sits 0.99% below its 50-day average. The flash survey's report of the fastest rise in US selling prices since August 2022 matters for valuations because it bears on whether the Fed raises rates by December, after its rise to 3.75–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing); on 23 October futures put the chance at about 80% (CME FedWatch, via Investing.com).

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 17.6x gives an earnings yield of 5.69% (1÷17.57); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.38% (ECB YC API, 22 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.31 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund at 3.35% (Trading Economics) it is +2.34 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.35% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.34 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 37.3% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (24.1x against 17.6x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside.

France remains the region's main risk. The CAC 40 at 16.4x has an earnings yield of 6.10% (1÷16.39), 1.06 pp above the French 10-year yield of 5.04%; the DAX at 17.8x yields 5.61%, 2.26 pp over the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 16.6x yields 6.04%, 0.68 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.36%. The French 10-year still yields more than the 5.00% at which the US 10-year settled on 23 October. Moody's kept France's Aa3 rating, two notches above S&P's and Fitch's ratings (Marc to Market), and its negative outlook after Friday's close; it noted that slower growth and a wider deficit had left the debt burden somewhat higher than it expected, and said further signs that parliament's ability to prevent a lasting rise in the cost of servicing the debt had weakened would likely lead to a downgrade (CNBC; Seoul Economic Daily). The French yield and the spread over Germany quoted here are from before that decision. France's business survey fell to 48.4 in October, meaning more French firms reported falling activity than rising. A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so their earnings in euros still move with the currency.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E is 16.4x (earnings yield 6.09%), 3.29 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 2.80% (Trading Economics). September's consumer prices rose 2.1% on a year earlier, and 2.4% excluding fresh food and energy, up from 1.9% in August (Marc to Market). The Bank of Japan meets on 29–30 October and is expected to hold; on 23 October swaps priced about a 75% chance of a rise in December (Marc to Market). The yen was almost unchanged against the euro today, so a euro investor in an unhedged Japan fund lost about what the index did.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 13.3x, the cheapest index in the table and a 44.9% discount to the S&P 500. The discount reflects the risks shown this week: Korea's largest companies sell memory chips into US AI spending, and the Kospi fell 3.52% on Thursday on doubts about that spending; Brent above $110 weighs on the index's large oil importers (Korea, India, China). A further US rate rise, which futures on 23 October put at about 80% likely by December, would tend to draw money out of emerging markets and raise the cost of their dollar debts, whatever the investor's home currency; the currency conversion matters less for a euro holder, because the euro tends to fall against the dollar at the same time, as it did today.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield of 5.00%, and selling prices rising at their fastest pace since 2022 in the flash survey. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; against that, a French 10-year yield of 5.04%, about 169 bp over Germany before Moody's kept its rating and negative outlook, and euro-area growth at a four-month low. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 16.4x, with inflation now above the BOJ's target and a meeting on 29–30 October. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with Korea's chip makers, oil and Brazil's runoff on Sunday as the near-term risks.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The University of Michigan's final October consumer sentiment index was 48.0, above the preliminary 46.3 and close to September's 48.1; households expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year and 3.5% a year over five years, the longer-term figure up from 3.3% in September according to one report (University of Michigan; Louis Velazquez).

Other economic releases today (web search)

A purchasing managers' index counts how many firms report improvement, not by how much: 50 means as many firms report growth as decline, so the euro area's 51.9 means a narrow majority still reported growth, fewer than in September, and France's 48.4 means more French firms reported falling activity than rising. Manufacturing indices include suppliers' delivery times, which raise the reading when deliveries slow; the US report describes worsening supply bottlenecks, which may account for part of the manufacturing index's rise to 56.0, while the composite, which has no delivery component, fell (Seoul Economic Daily). The price questions are outside the headline and are what bond investors watch: in the US, selling prices rose at the steepest rate since August 2022, and in the euro area input costs rose on energy, fuel and transport costs linked to the Middle East (US News/Reuters; Seoul Economic Daily).

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting and meets next on 27–28 October (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing); on the morning of 23 October futures priced about a 5% chance of a rise at that meeting (Yahoo Finance). The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, its second rise this year after June's move to 2.25% (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing), and decides next on 29 October, when it is expected to hold (Investing.com; MUFG). The BOJ raised its rate to 1.25% on 18 September (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing) and meets on 29–30 October. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing); markets expect at least three quarter-point rises by April 2027, the first possibly in November (Trading Economics).

Government Bond Yields

The USA row is the 23 Oct 2026 curve; its day change is against the 22 Oct 2026 curve from the same feed. The French and Italian day changes are against Thursday evening's Trading Economics quotes (5.08% and 4.60%).

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 23 Oct 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +31 bp, positive, 6 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and below the 75 bp steep threshold. - 10Y-3M spread: +78 bp, positive, no recession signal.

OAT-Bund Spread: about 169 bp (10-year OAT 5.04% against Bund 3.35%, Trading Economics, 23 Oct 2026 intraday), against about 174 bp on Thursday evening; Trading Economics calls the level the widest since the euro debt crisis. Both quotes predate Moody's decision after the close to keep France's rating unchanged.

The US spreads are what investors normally demand for lending for longer and do not signal an expected recession. The US curve moved back up after Thursday's fall: yields from one year to thirty years rose 3 to 5 bp, the 2-year to 4.69%, the 5-year to 4.82%, the 10-year to 5.00% and the 30-year to 5.33%, while the 3-month bill was unchanged at 4.22% (US Treasury par curve, 23 Oct). In Europe, France's 10-year yield eased 4 bp to 5.04% and its premium over Germany narrowed to about 169 bp, while the Bund was almost unchanged at 3.35%; Italy's 10-year, at 4.59%, is about 124 bp over Germany. Japan's 10-year fell 9 bp to 2.80% as investors bought bonds during the sell-off in technology shares (Trading Economics). In the UK the 10-year gilt rose 3 bp to 5.36%; Trading Economics shows the 2-year 18 bp higher at 4.93%, a much larger move than at longer maturities that none of the reports found explains, so treat that figure with caution.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 23 Oct 2026: 3M 4.22%, 6M 4.30%, 1Y 4.44%, 2Y 4.69%, 3Y 4.75%, 5Y 4.82%, 7Y 4.89%, 10Y 5.00%, 20Y 5.37%, 30Y 5.33%; 2-to-10 slope +31 bp. Prior curves 23 Sep and 24 Aug 2026. The 3-month bill at 4.22% is 34.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%, more than the usual 25 bp.

The US curve rises from 4.22% at three months to 5.37% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year. Against 23 September the 2-year is 16 bp lower, the 10-year 11 bp lower and the 30-year 7 bp lower, so the 2-to-10 slope has widened from 26 bp to 31 bp, with yields falling most at the short end.

Euro area AAA government curve, 22 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.59%, 1Y 2.87%, 2Y 3.01%, 5Y 3.13%, 10Y 3.38%, 20Y 3.65%, 30Y 3.62%; 2-to-10 slope +38 bp. Prior curves 22 Sep and 21 Aug 2026. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 23 Oct 2026), overlaid, differ from the plotted 22 Oct 2026 curve by at most 6 bp, at the 30Y (3.68% against 3.62%); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so only a gap well beyond that is a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.59% at three months to 3.65% at 20 years, with the 30-year 3 bp below the 20-year. Against 22 September it is 13 bp lower at two years and 7 bp lower at ten, so its 2-to-10 slope has widened from 32 bp to 38 bp, by falling more at the short end.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 22 Oct 2026 vs 21 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 22 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

Thursday's sell-off reached company bonds: the extra yield on lower-rated US company bonds over Treasuries widened 13 bp to 340 bp, and on euro lower-rated bonds 16 bp to 354 bp, both still in the lower half of the normal 300–500 bp range for US high yield. US investment-grade spreads, at 89 bp, remain near the bottom of their 80–150 bp range. The VIX, the index of expected volatility in the S&P 500, closed at 19.03 on 22 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading, up from 16.68 on 21 October.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The legs are a day apart: the US figures are from 23 October and the euro curve from 22 October, the latest the ECB has published. The 162 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 30 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.34% against 2.04%) and 131 bp of real-rate difference (2.66% against 1.35%), figures rounded, so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield rose 2 bp on 23 October, from 2.64% on 22 October.

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 131 bp on these figures is under that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.66% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 23 Oct 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Computed from the US Treasury par curve, 23 October.

The 10-year's 4 bp rise on 23 October cost a holder about 0.31% at its modified duration of 7.79, taking back about a quarter of the roughly 1.3% gained when it fell 17 bp on 22 October. The 30-year Treasury pays 0.64 pp more than the 2-year for nearly eight times as much price movement per 10 bp, and with the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all weighing further rises and US selling prices rising at their fastest pace since 2022, short maturities keep most of the income with far less exposure to swings like Thursday's.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 18:20–18:30 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

The dollar firmed against every currency in the table, the ICE dollar index rising 0.21% to 101.82 as US yields edged back up. The Swiss franc fell most, 0.64% to 0.8250 per dollar, after gaining on Thursday, and the yen gave back 0.17% to 157.04 after Thursday's 0.67% rise. The euro fell 0.21% to $1.1198, near the bottom of its $1.1185–1.1225 range for the day, and the pound 0.18% to $1.3370 (Marc to Market).

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement (23 Oct 2026) vs the prior session's settlement (22 Oct 2026).

Two rows now show a later contract than Thursday's table, so their levels are not comparable with it, though their day changes are, because each is measured against the same contract's own settlement. Brent moves from the December contract (BZZ26), which settled at $113.17 on Thursday and expires shortly, to January (BZF27), which settled at $108.66 the same day: January trades $4.51 below December, so the table's level fell while the price rose 2.80%. Natural gas moves from November (NGX26, settled at $2.796 on Thursday) to December (NGZ26, settled at $3.156), so its level rose while the price fell 3.36%. Because the Brent and WTI rows now show different months, the gap between them in the table is not the usual Brent-WTI spread. Oil rose on the Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and the evacuation of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters (Investing.com); the December WTI contract (CLZ26) settled at $103.27, $3.80 above Thursday's settlement of $99.47, which Marc to Market had described as the contract's highest settlement, so Friday's settlement is higher still. January Brent is 11.42% below the 52-week high of $126.10 set by an earlier contract (range $58.72 to $126.10), and December WTI 13.57% below its $119.48 high (range $54.98 to $119.48).

Gold settled 1.29% lower at $4,007.90, 28.3% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026, and silver 1.92% lower at $53.949, 55.5% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same day; Marc to Market reported silver at a new low for 2026 during the morning. Both fell as the dollar and US yields rose. Copper rose 1.71% to $6.5075, slightly below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September, 4.7% below it. Natural gas, at $3.050, is in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 23 Oct close): energy (XLE) +2.60% led with oil, Chevron up 2.88%, followed by technology (XLK) +0.49%, with Microsoft +0.66% and Cisco +1.53%; real estate (XLRE) edged up 0.12%. Consumer staples (XLP) −1.92% were the weakest, reversing Thursday's 3.31% gain, with Procter & Gamble down 2.12% and Coca-Cola 2.76%; communication services (XLC) fell 1.78%, where AT&T fell 7.96% and T-Mobile 7.71% on a report that SpaceX was considering buying about 80,000 mobile phone towers; consumer discretionary (XLY) fell 1.66%, with Home Depot down 2.41%, financials (XLF) 1.32%, with American Express down 3.67% and JPMorgan 1.47%, and industrials (XLI) 1.27%, with Caterpillar down 2.42% (Yahoo Finance quotes; Yahoo Finance). Health care (XLV) fell 1.11% and utilities (XLU) 0.72%. Thursday's rotation reversed: the companies investors bought for safety on Thursday were sold, and the technology shares they sold were bought back.

• Oil and the Gulf: further Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites lifted the December WTI contract 3.82% to $103.27 and Brent 2.80%; energy was the best US sector.
• AI spending doubts pause: the Nasdaq 100 ended flat after Thursday's fall and SK hynix rose 4.4% in Seoul, but European chip makers still fell 2% to 6% (Investing.com).
• French borrowing costs: the French 10-year yield eased to 5.04%, about 169 bp over Germany, while France's October business survey fell to 48.4; after the close Moody's kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook.
• Prices: US companies raised selling prices at the fastest rate since August 2022 and Japan's core inflation rose above the BOJ's target, both in releases out today.

Top Stories (Global)

• Oil climbs on new Saudi attacks. The Houthis hit Aramco sites at Yanbu and Shaybah and Aramco told staff to leave its Dhahran headquarters; December WTI settled at $103.27, up 3.82%, and January Brent at $111.70, up 2.80% (Investing.com; Yahoo Finance).
• Dow down 1.2% as selling broadens. Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs, American Express and Home Depot accounted for about half of the Dow's 653-point fall, while the Nasdaq 100 ended flat; American Express fell 3.67% after a revenue miss and plans to cut about 3,500 jobs (Yahoo Finance).
• Volvo Cars and Kering sink in Europe. Volvo Cars fell 24.2% to a record low on a larger-than-expected quarterly loss and 2,500 job cuts, and Kering 16.6% on weak Gucci sales (Yahoo Finance; Investing.com).
• Euro-area growth slows; France contracts. The euro-area composite survey fell to 51.9, a four-month low, and France's to 48.4 (US News/Reuters; investinglive; Marc to Market).
• Moody's spares France. After the European close, Moody's left France's Aa3 rating and negative outlook unchanged at the end of a scheduled review, assuming that a deficit-cutting 2027 budget passes; the finance minister, Roland Lescure, welcomed the decision (CNBC; Seoul Economic Daily; Euronews).
• US prices rising fastest since 2022. The flash US composite survey eased to 57.6 from 58.4, with manufacturing at a 53-month high of 56.0 and selling prices rising at the steepest pace since August 2022 (Seoul Economic Daily).
• Japan's core inflation above target. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.1% in September, above the BOJ's 2% target for the first time this year, a week before the BOJ meets (Marc to Market).
• Telecom shares fall on SpaceX report. AT&T fell 8.0%, T-Mobile 7.7% and Verizon 1.2% after a report that SpaceX was considering buying about 80,000 cell sites (Yahoo Finance).

Looking Ahead

• Saturday 24 October: nationwide protests planned in France (Investing.com).
• Sunday 25 October: Brazil's presidential runoff.
• Next week: the National Assembly resumes its debate on the revenue measures of France's 2027 budget on 27 October (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing); the Fed meets on 27–28 October; the UK budget on 28 October; the ECB decides on 29 October, with the final euro-area consumer confidence figure the same day; the Bank of Japan meets on 29–30 October; euro-area inflation figures are due during the week (Trading Economics; Investing.com).
• Further out: US midterm elections on 3 November; the Bank of England meets on 5 November.

Market closures - None in the next five days (23 Oct to 27 Oct 2026). - Further out: Brazil 2 Nov 2026 (All Souls' Day); Japan 3 Nov 2026 (Culture Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (23 Oct 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 22 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q3); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, sector funds, commodity futures, live Treasury yields and FX via Yahoo Finance (FX quoted at 18:20–18:30 CEST; Americas, US-listed and commodity rows at the 23 Oct close); Dow component closes via Yahoo Finance; European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, Marc to Market, US News/Reuters, Seoul Economic Daily, Newsquawk, investinglive, Coin Edition, University of Michigan, CNBC, Euronews, TASS, bne IntelliNews).