2026 11 05

Global Financial Briefing — Thursday, 5 November 2026

Americas index levels, commodities and day changes reflect the 5 Nov 2026 close. The US Treasury par and real curves, the curve spreads and the US curve chart are at the 5 Nov 2026 close. The euro AAA curve is the 4 Nov 2026 observation, the latest the ECB had published. FX is the evening quote; credit and macro figures are dated inline.

Market Overview

Chip and AI-related shares sold off around the world, a day after the US midterm elections gave the Democrats both chambers of Congress. Investors fear a Democratic Congress will tighten the rules on the data centres used to train and run AI, which could slow the building programme that has driven chip makers' earnings (Trading Economics; Seeking Alpha). The Nasdaq 100 closed down 6.36%, the S&P 500 4.36% and the Dow 3.44%, reversing Wednesday's rally, when the Dow closed up 3.03%; the Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, about 12% below the record it set a month earlier (Charles Schwab). The S&P 500's technology sector fund (XLK) fell 8.00%. Qualcomm added to the pressure: its handset revenue fell 26% in its fiscal fourth quarter, to September 2026, and its forecast disappointed, and its shares fell about 12% (Eurasia Business News; Trading Economics). Nvidia fell more than 9% to a seven-month low (Charles Schwab), with China's delay in approving imports of its H200 chips adding to the selling, and Micron lost 17.5% (Benzinga). The Nasdaq 100 is now 15.09% below its 52-week high of 31,361.37 and 10.45% below its 50-day average.

The selling reached every market where chip makers carry a large weight. Korea's Kospi fell 5.28%, with SK hynix down 9.46% and Samsung Electronics 7.57%, and the Nikkei 225 1.79%, with Advantest down 14.7% (Trading Economics). In Europe, ASML fell about 7% and STMicroelectronics 9.3% (Trading Economics), but the STOXX 600 lost only 0.38% and the CAC 40 rose 0.34%, because Europe's indices hold far fewer technology companies. Markets with few chip makers rose on the same news that lifted Wall Street on Wednesday: Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 3.67%, its biggest rise since February 2025 (Trading Economics), India's Nifty 50 2.40% and Australia's ASX 200 2.61%.

Bonds rallied as investors moved out of shares. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 bp to 4.84% and the 2-year 12 bp to 4.46% (US Treasury par curve, 5 Nov), after US data showed unit labour costs falling 0.7% at an annual rate in the third quarter, against an expected 0.6% rise (Kitco). Jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week to 31 October, the lowest since 18 July (Kitco). Germany's 10-year Bund yield fell about 5 bp to 3.24%, its lowest since late August (Trading Economics). The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.00%, its first rise in more than three years, and Governor Andrew Bailey said further rises may be needed unless the Iran war is resolved (Trading Economics); 2-year gilt yields edged up 1 bp. Oil recovered part of Wednesday's 8.7% fall, the January Brent contract (BZF27) settling 3.88% higher at $98.29, and gold settled 0.99% higher at $4,113.50.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 5 Nov 2026 close.

The S&P 500 is 4.41% below its 50-day average and 0.46% above its 200-day, and 6.26% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq 100 has fallen through its 200-day average and is 4.79% below it. The Dow lost 1,833 points and is 1.20% below its 50-day average. Tesla fell about 11%, Lam Research more than 13%, Applied Materials about 11%, Broadcom about 7.6% and Oracle about 7%, while Meta fell more than 3.5% and Microsoft about 3% (Trading Economics). Brazil's IBOV fell 0.82% as the Wall Street selling spread, with the engineering group WEG down 4% and Embraer 5%, while Vale rose on higher iron ore prices; Brazil's central bank held its Selic rate at 13.75%, pausing its cuts (Trading Economics). The IBOV is 11.60% below its 50-day average.

Europe

European data reflects the 5 Nov 2026 close.

The DAX rose as high as 26,693 early in the afternoon, above its August peak, before the chip selling in New York reached Frankfurt and it closed 0.43% lower (Trading Economics). Infineon fell more than 8% and Siemens Energy about 5%; Rheinmetall fell about 16% after its second profit warning this year, blaming delayed orders, and the gearbox maker Renk about 6% (Trading Economics). Deutsche Telekom slipped after a €2 billion share buyback that was smaller than investors hoped, while Bayer and BASF rose more than 3% (Trading Economics). In Paris, STMicroelectronics fell 9.3% and Schneider Electric 1.6%, but Bouygues rose 2.6% and Air Liquide 1.3%, enough to leave the CAC 40 0.34% higher (Trading Economics). The CAC 40 is 2.13% above its 50-day average and 6.28% below its 52-week high. In London the FTSE 100 fell 0.43%, led by defence and banks: BAE Systems lost more than 5% and NatWest about 4%, and copper's fall took Anglo American down nearly 3%, while gold miners such as Endeavour rose (Trading Economics). The STOXX 600 is 1.29% below its 52-week high of 663.41 and 2.18% above its 50-day average.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects the 5 Nov 2026 close.

The Asian session split by how much of each market is chip makers. In Seoul the Kospi fell 5.28% to its lowest close in more than a week, as SK hynix and Samsung Electronics fell, and it is now 16.60% below its 50-day average (Trading Economics). The Nikkei 225 fell 1.79% as Kioxia lost 13.1% and Ibiden 16.3%, but Toyota rose 16.7% after raising its full-year profit forecast on a weaker yen and cost cuts, and Nintendo gained 6.3% (Trading Economics); the index is 6.83% below its 50-day average. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 3.67% to a five-week high, led by Meituan (+5.6%) and Tencent (+4.9%), helped by lower oil prices and by state-backed funds buying about $11.5 billion of exchange-traded funds (Trading Economics). Australia's ASX 200 rose 2.61% to a two-month high, with BHP up 6.2% and Rio Tinto 7% as iron ore prices rebounded, and Woodside down 6.0% after Wednesday's fall in oil (Trading Economics). Shanghai edged up 0.10%.

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market data reflects the 5 Nov 2026 close.

EEM trades in New York, after Asia has closed, so its 5.79% fall is New York's valuation of emerging markets during today's chip selloff, not what those markets did. The local closes were mixed: Korea fell 5.28%, while Hong Kong rose 3.67%, India 2.40% and Shanghai 0.10%. EEM's fall is larger than that mix, because chip makers in Taiwan and Korea are among its largest holdings and New York was selling chips hardest after Asia had closed; Friday's Asian session will show whether the local markets follow. With the euro up 0.03% against the dollar, the fund's fall is almost the same for a euro investor. India's Nifty 50 rose on a return of foreign buyers and cheaper oil, with Bajaj Finance up about 7.8% and ICICI Bank 5.3% (Trading Economics); it is 5.63% above its 50-day average. South Africa's fund (EZA) rose 2.04% as gold rose.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026; shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM, taken 18:10 CEST. SPY, QQQ and EEM are priced off the 5 Nov 2026 close; the other proxies were at their close when captured.

Most trailing P/E ratios fell with prices; the CAC 40 proxy's rose with the index, and the Nasdaq 100 and EM proxies' rose despite their falls, because the trailing earnings behind them fell.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 23.3x gives an earnings yield of 4.29% (1÷23.32). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 4.84% (US Treasury par curve, 5 Nov) the earnings yield gap is −0.55 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.60% (US Treasury real curve, 5 Nov) the gap is +1.69 pp; the 2.24 pp difference is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 26.7x has an earnings yield of 3.75%, 1.09 pp below the 10-year Treasury. Today's fall is a test of the companies that carry the index: the selling hit the chip makers and the large companies spending on AI data centres, whose weight in the S&P 500 means a change in the outlook for data-centre spending moves the whole index. The S&P 500 is 4.41% below its 50-day average. Friday's October jobs report, with 50,000 to 60,000 jobs expected, and a December Fed rise that futures put at about 80% on 5 November (Kitco) are the next tests.

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 18.2x gives an earnings yield of 5.51% (1÷18.15); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.34% (ECB YC API, 4 Nov) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.17 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.24% (Trading Economics) it is +2.27 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.32% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.19 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 28.5% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (23.3x against 18.2x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside.

Europe's small weight in technology limited today's fall, but its exposure runs through ASML, Infineon and STMicroelectronics, which fell 7% to 9%. In France, the CAC 40 at 17.3x has an earnings yield of 5.78% (1÷17.29), 1.00 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.78%, and the French 10-year spread over Germany is unchanged at 154 bp. The DAX at 18.7x yields 5.35%, 2.11 pp over the 10-year Bund quote, and the FTSE 100 at 16.7x yields 5.98%, 0.83 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.15%, after a Bank of England rise that it says may not be the last. A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so their earnings in euros still move with the currency.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E is 16.0x (earnings yield 6.27%), 3.51 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 2.76% (Trading Economics), which fell about 6 bp to its lowest since late July. The Bank of Japan has held its rate at 1.25% since its 18 September increase from 1.00% (as cited in the 22 Sep briefing), and held it on 30 October with one member voting for a rise (as cited in the 3 Nov briefing). The index's direction is set by its chip and electronics companies, which led its fall on Wednesday and again today, while Toyota's 16.7% rise shows what a weak yen does for exporters' profits. The yen rose 0.39% against the dollar to 157.70 and about 0.4% against the euro, a small gain for a euro investor in an unhedged Japan fund.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 13.6x, the cheapest index in the table and a 41.6% discount to the S&P 500. Today shows the cost of that discount's composition: Korean and Taiwanese chip makers make up a large part of the index, so a fall in US chip shares hits it directly, while India and Hong Kong rose. A December Fed rise would add a second pressure, through higher US yields and a stronger dollar. For a euro investor, a dollar move largely offsets in the currency conversion, because the euro usually moves against the dollar too; the economic effects of the dollar on these companies (the cost of dollar debt, money moving in or out of their markets) are not offset.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield of 4.84% and a likely December rate rise; today's fall lowered P/E ratios but showed how much the index depends on spending on AI data centres. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; euro-area inflation at 4.0% in October (as cited in the 4 Nov briefing) keeps a December ECB rise in view. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 16.0x, a Bank of Japan that may raise rates again, and an index moved by a few chip companies. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with returns concentrated in Asian chip makers, as today's fall in EEM showed, and sensitive to the dollar and to US rates.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

These monthly figures are unchanged from Wednesday's briefing; October's payroll and unemployment figures are due on Friday 6 November, with 50,000 to 60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate near 4.2% expected (Kitco).

Other economic releases today (web search)

Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 189,000, the lowest since 18 July, so few workers are being laid off, though continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million, which suggests those out of work are taking longer to find jobs (Kitco). Productivity rose at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter, as output grew 3.7% while hours worked rose 0.1%, and unit labour costs fell 0.7%, their first fall since the second quarter of 2025 (Kitco). Falling labour costs per unit of output ease one source of inflation, which helped Treasury yields lower today. The Bank of England's rise was decided by eight votes to one, with Catherine Mann voting for a half-point rise to 4.25%; the Bank expects UK inflation to rise to about 5% by the middle of next year from 3.5% now, as energy prices feed through, before falling (Trading Economics).

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Bank of England had held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September (as cited in the 2 Nov briefing); the SONIA reading in the table is from 3 November, before today's rise. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% in October with two policymakers favouring an immediate rise, and futures put the chance of a rise at its 8 to 9 December meeting at about 80% on 5 November (Kitco). The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October after discussing a rise (as cited in the 4 Nov briefing).

Government Bond Yields

The USA day change is against the 4 Nov 2026 curve from the same feed.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 5 Nov 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +38 bp, positive, 13 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold, +6 bp on the day. - 10Y-3M spread: +67 bp, positive, no recession signal, −2 bp on the day.

OAT-Bund Spread: 154 bp (10-year OAT 4.78% against Bund 3.24%, Trading Economics, 5 Nov 2026 intraday).

Most European yields fell with Treasuries as investors sold shares, but less at the long end, and Italy's 10-year rose about 4 bp to 4.36% (Trading Economics). In Germany the 2-year fell about 3 bp to 2.98%, the 5-year and 10-year about 5 bp and the 30-year 3 bp (Trading Economics). France's 10-year fell about 4 bp to 4.78%, its lowest since 23 September, so its gap over Germany stayed at 154 bp; concerns about France's budget limited the fall (Trading Economics). Gilts barely moved on the Bank of England's rise: the 2-year rose 1 bp to 4.75% and the 10-year fell 2 bp to 5.15%, recovering from an earlier fall after Bailey's warning that more rises may follow (Trading Economics). Japan's 10-year yield fell about 6 bp to 2.76% and the 30-year about 8 bp to 3.85% (Trading Economics). On the US curve the 2-year fell most, 12 bp to 4.46%, against 6 bp for the 10-year and 3 bp for the 30-year, so the 2-to-10 slope steepened 6 bp to 38 bp.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 5 Nov 2026: 3M 4.17%, 6M 4.19%, 1Y 4.28%, 2Y 4.46%, 3Y 4.53%, 5Y 4.59%, 7Y 4.70%, 10Y 4.84%, 20Y 5.27%, 30Y 5.25%; 2-to-10 slope +38 bp. Day change against the 4 Nov 2026 curve: 3M −4 bp, 6M −6 bp, 1Y −11 bp, 2Y −12 bp, 3Y −11 bp, 5Y −10 bp, 7Y −7 bp, 10Y −6 bp, 20Y −3 bp, 30Y −3 bp. The 3-month bill at 4.17% is 29.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%.

The US curve rises from 4.17% at three months to 5.27% at 20 years, with the 30-year 2 bp below the 20-year. Against 6 October it is 33 bp lower at two years, 43 bp lower at ten and 39 bp lower at thirty, so the 2-to-10 slope has narrowed from 48 bp to 38 bp. The 3-month bill sits 29.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint, in line with futures pricing a December rise.

Euro area AAA government curve, 4 Nov 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.59%, 1Y 2.89%, 2Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.08%, 10Y 3.34%, 20Y 3.64%, 30Y 3.62%; 2-to-10 slope +34 bp. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 5 Nov 2026), overlaid, differ from the plotted 4 Nov 2026 curve by at most 10 bp, at the 10Y (3.24% against 3.34%); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so only a gap well beyond that is a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.59% at three months to 3.64% at 20 years, with the 30-year 2 bp below the 20-year; against 5 October it is unchanged at two years, 16 bp lower at ten and 15 bp lower at thirty, so its 2-to-10 slope has narrowed from 50 bp to 34 bp. Today's Bund quotes fell 3 bp to 5 bp, part of the 10 bp gap at ten years shown in the overlay.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 4 Nov 2026 vs 3 Nov 2026. Credit spreads are the 4 November close; today's session is not in them yet.

US high-yield spreads at 332 bp and investment-grade at 91 bp are both inside their normal ranges (300 to 500 bp and 80 to 150 bp), and Euro high yield is at 345 bp. All three narrowed on 4 November in the post-election rally; today's selloff in shares is not in these readings.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

The US real yield is a market price, because inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) trade; the euro real yield is derived by subtracting a survey's inflation expectation from the nominal yield, so it is the softer of the two numbers. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. With the US leg on 5 November and the euro leg on 4 November, the 150 bp gap between the US and euro 10-year yields splits into 22 bp of difference in expected inflation (2.24% against 2.02%) and 128 bp of difference in real yields (2.60% against 1.32%), so it is almost entirely a real-rate difference. The US real yield fell 4 bp on 5 November, from 2.64%, while the breakeven fell 2 bp, so most of the day's 6 bp fall in the 10-year Treasury yield came from the real yield rather than from expected inflation, on a day when oil rose.

The US–euro real rate gap is not an investment opportunity

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and today's 128 bp is under that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, Bund scarcity, US fiscal supply), not a trade a EUR-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a dollar bet rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.60% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 5 Nov 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond.

Today's 6 bp fall at the 10-year earned a holder about 0.5%, or 1.2 months of coupon.

The S&P 500's earnings yield of 4.29% is 0.55 pp below the 4.84% settled 10-year Treasury yield and 1.69 pp above the 2.60% real yield; the STOXX 600's 5.51% is 2.17 pp above the euro AAA 10-year yield. A bond holder locks in a fixed coupon, while an equity holder receives only the paid-out part of earnings in cash and takes the risk that earnings change, which today's fall in chip makers' shares made concrete. With Friday's jobs report and a possible December Fed rise ahead, short maturities keep most of the income for a quarter of the 10-year's price risk: a 10 bp rise costs a 2-year 0.19% against 0.78% for a 10-year, while on a day like today, when yields fell, the longer bond is the one that gains.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 18:10 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

Currencies moved little for a day of large falls in shares. The yen rose 0.39% against the dollar and the Swiss franc 0.22%, the two currencies investors usually buy when shares fall, while the euro and sterling barely moved (+0.03% and +0.06%), even after the Bank of England's rise.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 5 Nov 2026 settlement vs 4 Nov 2026 settlement. Prices are the 5 November settlements of the contracts named.

Both oil contracts are the ones Wednesday's table showed, the January Brent contract (BZF27) and the December WTI contract (CLZ26), so the levels are comparable; the December WTI contract expires on 20 November, so no roll is imminent. Brent settled 3.88% higher and WTI 2.72% after Wednesday's 8.7% fall, as there is still no binding US-Iran agreement, normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed and a tanker was struck north of Qatar (Kitco). Brent settled at $98.29, in a 52-week range of $58.72 to $126.10, and WTI at $90.52, in a range of $54.98 to $119.48. Gold, which rose 0.99% to settle at $4,113.50 helped by lower Treasury yields (Kitco), is 26.4% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026, and silver, at $52.376, is 56.8% below its all-time high of $121.300 set the same day. Copper fell 2.47% to $6.2700 on worries about weaker demand from AI data centres (Trading Economics), 8.2% below its all-time high of $6.8300 set on 22 September 2026. Natural gas, at $2.947, is in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Crypto: Bitcoin fell 5.53% to about $75,963 and Ether 7.19% to about $2,248 since Wednesday's close (Yahoo Finance BTC-USD, ETH-USD, daily bars, about 19:40 CET).

Sector & Theme Highlights

Every one of the S&P 500's eleven sector funds closed lower. Technology (XLK) fell most, 8.00%, followed by industrials (XLI) 4.12% and consumer discretionary (XLY) 3.83%, where Tesla fell about 11% (Trading Economics); energy (XLE) fell 2.98%, materials (XLB) 2.91% and financials (XLF) 2.87% (Yahoo Finance). The funds that fell least were communication services (XLC), down 0.59%, utilities (XLU) 0.71% and consumer staples (XLP) 0.75% (Yahoo Finance); utilities and staples hold companies whose earnings depend little on AI spending.

Two themes ran across markets. Chip makers fell everywhere, in New York, Seoul, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt, on the prospect of tighter US rules for AI data centres and on Qualcomm's weak handset sales; copper fell with them, because data centres are a growing source of demand for it. Defence companies fell again after Wednesday's losses, with Rheinmetall down about 16% on its profit warning and BAE Systems more than 5% (Trading Economics). Money moved instead into consumer companies in Asia and Indian banks: Toyota, Nintendo and Fast Retailing in Tokyo, Meituan and Tencent in Hong Kong, and Indian banks and carmakers (Trading Economics).

Top Stories (Global)

• Chip shares sell off worldwide: the Nasdaq 100 closed down 6.36% on fears that the new Democratic Congress will tighten rules on AI data centres; Nvidia fell more than 9% to a seven-month low and Micron 17.5% (Yahoo Finance; Charles Schwab; Benzinga).
• Qualcomm falls about 12%: fiscal fourth-quarter handset revenue fell 26% to about $5.14 billion, below the $5.25 billion expected, and its forecast disappointed, though adjusted earnings of $2.17 a share were in line (Eurasia Business News; Trading Economics).
• Bank of England raises rates: Bank Rate rose 0.25 percentage point to 4.00%, by eight votes to one, its first rise in more than three years; Bailey said more may be needed unless the Iran war is resolved (Trading Economics).
• Kospi falls 5.28%: SK hynix lost 9.46% and Samsung Electronics 7.57% (Trading Economics).
• Hang Seng rises 3.67%: its biggest gain since February 2025, as state-backed funds bought about $11.5 billion of exchange-traded funds and lower oil helped (Trading Economics).
• Rheinmetall issues a profit warning: its second this year, citing delayed orders; the shares fell about 16% (Trading Economics).
• Toyota raises its forecast: the shares rose 16.7% after it raised its annual earnings forecast on a weaker yen and cost cuts (Trading Economics).
• US labour costs fall: jobless claims fell to 189,000 and third-quarter unit labour costs fell 0.7% as productivity rose 3.6% (Kitco).

Looking Ahead

• Friday 6 November: the US jobs report for October, with 50,000 to 60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate near 4.2% expected, and the University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment survey (Kitco).
• Tuesday 8 to Wednesday 9 December: the Fed's next meeting, with futures putting a rise at about 80% on 5 November (Kitco).
• Further out: the second estimate of euro-area third-quarter GDP on 13 November (as cited in the 30 Oct briefing); the deadline for the National Assembly's first reading of the 2027 budget's revenue part at midnight on 17 November (Cointelegraph, as cited in the 3 Nov briefing); S&P Global's review of France's rating on 27 November (The Local, as cited in the 3 Nov briefing). On 11 November the US bond market closes for Veterans Day while US stock exchanges stay open (as cited in the 4 Nov briefing).

Market closures - None in the next five days (6 Nov to 10 Nov 2026). - Further out: the US bond market, not stocks, 11 Nov 2026 (Veterans Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (5 Nov 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 4 Nov 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q4); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures, live yields and FX via Yahoo Finance (taken 18:10 CEST, with the Americas indices, EEM, EZA and the commodity settlements at the 5 Nov 2026 close); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, Seeking Alpha, Kitco, Eurasia Business News, FXTribune).