2026 10 14

Global Financial Briefing — Wednesday, 14 October 2026

Figures reflect the 14 Oct close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the German, French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 14 Oct close; the euro AAA curve is the ECB's 13 Oct curve, the latest it had published.

Market Overview

US consumer prices rose faster than expected in September. Annual inflation reached 3.7%, against 3.6% forecast and 3.4% in August, and core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, rose to 2.6% from 2.4%, against 2.5% forecast (Yahoo Finance; FRED CPIAUCSL and CPILFESL give 3.72% and 2.57%). Prices rose 0.6% on the month, as expected, with petrol up 9.1% and accounting for about half of the rise (Quartz). The surprise was in the core: it means energy costs are starting to show up in other prices, which is what the Fed has been raising rates to prevent. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting; New York Fed President John Williams said that one more rise may be needed this year (Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance), and around the release about 78% of traders still expected the Fed to hold at its 27–28 October meeting (CME FedWatch via Yahoo Finance).

Treasury yields jumped on the release but only short-term yields held the rise. The 10-year touched 5.27% in the late morning (Yahoo Finance) and settled at 5.19%, down 2 bp on the day, and the 30-year fell 4 bp to 5.52%, while the 2-year rose 3 bp to 4.82% and the 3-month bill 2 bp to 4.28% (US Treasury par curve, 14 Oct). Short-term yields rising while long-term yields fall is the pattern of markets adding to the odds of further Fed rate rises over the next year or two, rather than worrying more about inflation a decade out; investors bought long-dated Treasuries alongside health care and dividend-paying shares (Market Scholars). Shares fell: the S&P 500 closed down 1.11% at 7,718.94 and the Nasdaq 100 2.02% lower at 29,950.82, while the Dow lost only 0.09%. Technology was the weakest US sector (−2.98%) and health care the strongest (+2.53%). Bank of America fell as much as 9% during the session after its quarterly profit of $0.91 a share fell short of the $1.10 expected, including a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty (Yahoo Finance). The dollar rose 0.67% against the six currencies in the ICE index and the euro fell 0.76% to $1.1119; gold settled 1.66% lower and silver 6.13%.

Europe closed higher even though the US figures came out three hours before its close. The Swiss SMI rose 1.45%, and the STOXX 600 rose 0.43%, helped by ASML, which said demand for its chip-making machines from AI data centres is so strong that it cannot fully meet orders in 2027 or 2028 (Reuters via Investing.com). The German 10-year yield touched 3.51% after the US figures and ended little changed at 3.46% (Investing.com), while the French 10-year rose 5 bp to 4.88%, widening France's extra borrowing cost over Germany to 142 bp from 137 bp on Tuesday (Trading Economics). ECB President Christine Lagarde said the answer to France's debt lies in Paris, with budget cuts, and played down suggestions that the ECB would step in to cap French yields (IndexBox). In Asia, early rebounds in Seoul and Tokyo faded: the Kospi was up 1.5% at midday (Invezz) but closed 0.44% lower at 6,008.81, its sixth fall in a row, leaving it 14.21% below its 2 October close of 7,003.74. China reported September exports up about 36% on a year earlier, against about 25.5% forecast, and factory-gate prices up 5.0%, the fastest rise since June 2022 (Investing.com, China Economic Review), yet the Shanghai Composite fell 0.88%.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 14 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 0.15% above its 50-day average, 6.27% above its 200-day average and 1.60% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq 100 is 4.50% below its 52-week high and only 0.29% above its 50-day average. The Dow is 1.75% below its 50-day average and 5.70% below its 52-week high of 54,744.33. Brazil's Ibovespa is 1.53% below its 52-week high ahead of the presidential runoff on 25 October.

Europe

European data reflects today's close (14 Oct).

Every major European index rose, and the Euro STOXX 50 of the largest euro-area companies gained 0.38% to 6,190.37. Technology led in the morning, up 1.2% as a sector, with ASML closing almost 2% higher and ASM International and Infineon up 1.5% and 1.6% (Reuters via Investing.com, IndexBox). Swedish bank SEB fell 5% after the Swedish regulator temporarily raised its capital requirements, and Ørsted fell 3.2% on a report that the US will re-examine the permit for its wind farm near Rhode Island (Reuters via Investing.com). The CAC 40 remains the weakest of the major European indices relative to its trend: 4.52% below its 50-day average, 4.30% below its 200-day average and 4.90% above the bottom of its 52-week range (7,505.27 to 8,755.03). The STOXX 600 is 1.13% below its 50-day and 1.94% above its 200-day average; the DAX is 1.81% below its 50-day average.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects today's close (14 Oct).

Seoul and Tokyo both opened with a rebound after Tuesday's chip sell-off: the Kospi stood at 6,123 at 11:30, up about 1.5%, with Samsung Electronics up more than 2%, and the Nikkei was up 0.61% at the midday break (Invezz). Neither held. The Kospi has now fallen in six consecutive sessions since its 2 October close and is 10.11% below its 50-day average; the Nikkei's small loss is its fifth in a row since its 6 October close of 70,683.98, leaving it 4.16% lower, although it is still 2.49% above its 50-day average. The Shanghai Composite, despite China's strong trade figures, is just 0.70% above its 52-week low of 3,741.11. The ASX 200 fell 0.64% and is below both its 50- and 200-day averages.

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa (EZA) are New York-listed funds; all three rows reflect the 14 Oct close.

EEM's 2.05% fall is New York's reaction to the US inflation figures and the stronger dollar, not what emerging markets did today. The Asian markets that make up most of the index closed before the release, and their falls were small: Korea −0.44%, Hong Kong −0.13%, mainland China −0.88%, India −0.44%. Thursday's Asian session will show whether local markets follow New York down. India's Nifty is 2.00% above its 52-week low of 22,179.90 and 4.36% below its 50-day average. The South Africa fund, also priced in New York, fell 1.62% and is 22.60% below its 52-week high.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 110); shown for reference only.

Nikkei 225 (1321.T): averages withheld because they include four days of 0.23x readings that were data errors (n = 109).

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 24.4x gives an earnings yield of 4.09% (1÷24.43). Against the 10-year Treasury at 5.19% (US Treasury par curve, 14 Oct) the earnings yield gap is −1.10 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.84% (US Treasury real curve, 14 Oct) the gap is +1.25 pp; the 2.35 pp between the two is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 27.9x has an earnings yield of 3.58%, 1.61 pp below the 10-year Treasury. Today showed how this index reacts to inflation news: on a core inflation figure a tenth of a percentage point above forecast and higher odds of a further Fed rise, the Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.02% against 0.09% for the Dow, even though the 10-year yield ended lower. Technology companies are hit harder because the value of fast-growing technology companies rests on profits far in the future, which higher interest rates discount more heavily. Results season is giving mixed signals for the banks: Morgan Stanley beat forecasts, with revenue of $20.3 billion against the $19.95 billion LSEG estimate and wealth-management clients adding $232 billion of new assets (SEC filing, Benzinga, CNBC), yet its shares fell about 2% before the open (CNBC), and Bank of America missed. Analysts expect S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to grow more than 30% on a year earlier (24/7 Wall St).

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 17.6x gives an earnings yield of 5.67% (1÷17.63); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.49% (ECB YC API, 13 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.18 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund at 3.46% (Investing.com) it is +2.21 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.45% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.22 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 38.6% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (24.4x against 17.6x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside. The CAC 40 at 16.6x has an earnings yield of 6.04% (1÷16.57), 1.15 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.88%, a margin that narrowed from 1.24 pp on Tuesday as French yields rose. The DAX at 17.9x yields 5.58%, 2.12 pp above the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 16.6x yields 6.02%, 0.60 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.42%. For a French investor, Lagarde's remarks matter: by saying investors should keep demanding a higher return on French bonds given a deficit of 5.4% of GDP, and playing down the ECB's emergency bond-buying tool, she told markets not to expect the central bank to cap French borrowing costs (IndexBox). The first full vote on the budget's revenue measures is on 20 October and Moody's reviews France's rating on 23 October (FXStreet, 13 Oct). A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so today's 0.76% fall in the euro against the dollar, if it lasts, adds slightly to the euro value of their foreign earnings.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy trades at 17.8x (earnings yield 5.63%), 2.63 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 3.00% (Trading Economics). The reading came back on 9 October after four days of erroneous figures and is still well below the 22.7x of 2 October, so treat it with caution. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September, from the 1.00% set in June (Free Press Journal, as cited in the 13 Oct briefing); it meets next on 29–30 October. The yen weakened 0.28% against the dollar to 158.76, but the euro fell further, so the yen gained about 0.5% against the euro and an unhedged Japan fund gained slightly on the currency for a euro investor today.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 13.8x, the cheapest index in the table and a 43.5% discount to the S&P 500. A stronger dollar hurts emerging markets in two ways, and only one applies to a euro investor. The currency conversion largely cancels: EEM's 2.05% fall in dollars is about 1.3% in euros, because the euro fell against the dollar too. The economic effects do not cancel: countries and companies with dollar debts pay more, foreign money tends to leave, and central banks may have to raise rates to defend their currencies, which weighs on local share prices whatever the investor's home currency. Korea shows that a low P/E is no protection on its own: foreign investors kept selling into Tuesday's record-low valuation (Korea Times, 13 Oct) and the Kospi gave up today's rebound.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield of 5.19%, core inflation above forecast and a Fed meeting in two weeks at which a further rise is possible. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; against that, oil above $100, an ECB that markets expect to raise rates by December, after its 10 September rise to 2.50%, and a French budget without a stable majority. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E reading that has only just come back, the Nikkei's dependence on chip stocks, BOJ rate rises and the yen near 159 per dollar are the main risks. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with a rising dollar, Korea's chip makers, oil and Brazil's 25 October runoff as the near-term risks.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The CPI figures are today's September release. The 0.37 pp jump in headline inflation in one month is mostly energy. Core inflation rising 0.12 pp is the part the Fed will weigh most, because it shows whether higher energy costs are passing into other prices. September's labour figures (2 October release) showed hiring slowing to 29,000 jobs, so the Fed faces rising inflation and a cooling job market at once.

Other economic releases today (web search)

China's factory-gate prices are rising mainly because of oil and other commodity prices, which drove a 25.4% rise in mining prices, while consumer prices are rising slowly, so the strength is in what China pays for raw materials and sells abroad rather than in household demand. A trade surplus of $133.5 billion in a single month will also keep China's exports a political issue in Washington ahead of the 3 November midterm elections.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, its second rise this year after June's move to 2.25%. Lagarde said today that the energy-driven rise in inflation has not yet spread across the euro-area economy, a case for waiting, while Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said further rises may be needed and that one this month is still possible (Trading Economics). On Wednesday morning, before the US figures, traders expected a hold in October and put an 81% chance on a rise in December (LSEG data via Reuters). In the UK, on 14 October markets priced a near-certain Bank of England rise in November; Chief Economist Huw Pill said he doubts the four rises priced over the coming year, while Governor Andrew Bailey said a rise will be hard to avoid if the energy shock persists (Trading Economics).

Government Bond Yields

The USA row is the settled 14 Oct curve, its day change against 13 Oct. The Euro area AAA row's day change is 13 Oct against 12 Oct. The other rows are 14 Oct evening quotes. Trading Economics gives two conflicting day changes for the 10-year gilt (+2 bp in its bond table, −2 bp on its UK page), so none is shown.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 14 Oct 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +37 bp, positive, 12 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold. - 10Y-3M spread: +91 bp, positive, no recession signal.

OAT-Bund Spread: 142 bp (10-year OAT 4.88% against Bund 3.46%, Trading Economics and Investing.com, 14 Oct 2026), against 137 bp on Tuesday's quotes.

Positive US spreads of this size are what investors normally demand for lending for longer and do not signal an expected recession. The 2-to-10-year spread narrowed 5 bp on the day, from 42 bp, as the 2-year rose and the 10-year fell: markets raised their expectations for Fed rates over the next year or two while long-term yields eased. In the euro area France's spread over Germany widened: its 10-year yield rose 5 bp while the Bund was little changed, reversing most of Tuesday's 6 bp narrowing. The two reacted differently to the same US figures on the day Lagarde played down any central-bank backstop for French bonds. Italy's spread over Germany was about 110 bp, unchanged in effect. The 10-year gilt at 5.42% remains the highest 10-year yield in the table, near its highest since 2007 (Trading Economics).

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 14 Oct 2026: 3M 4.28%, 6M 4.37%, 1Y 4.53%, 2Y 4.82%, 3Y 4.92%, 5Y 5.00%, 7Y 5.09%, 10Y 5.19%, 20Y 5.57%, 30Y 5.52%; 2-to-10 slope +37 bp. Prior curves: 14 Sep and 12 Aug 2026. The 3-month bill at 4.28% is 40.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%, more than the usual 25 bp, consistent with markets allowing for a further rise by December.

The US curve rises from 4.28% at three months to 5.57% at 20 years, with the 30-year 5 bp below the 20-year. Since 14 September every maturity is higher, most at seven and ten years (+21 and +22 bp) and least at one year (+16 bp), so the curve has steepened over the month, the 2-to-10 slope widening from 32 bp to 37 bp; 14 October's own moves, a 3 bp rise at two years and a 4 bp fall at thirty, went the other way.

Euro area AAA government curve, 13 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.55%, 1Y 2.93%, 2Y 3.08%, 5Y 3.21%, 10Y 3.49%, 20Y 3.78%, 30Y 3.74%; 2-to-10 slope +41 bp. Prior curves: 11 Sep and 13 Aug 2026. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 14 Oct 2026), shown as amber markers, differ from the plotted curve by 9 bp at 30 years (3.83% against 3.74%) and by 2 to 3 bp elsewhere. The curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are the most recently issued German bonds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction; the 30-year gap was already 5 bp on Tuesday, so only part of it is a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.55% at three months to 3.78% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year. Against 11 September it is lower by 3 to 6 bp from one year out and 3 bp higher at three months, while US yields from five to thirty years rose 18 to 22 bp over the same month.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 13 Oct 2026 vs 12 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 13 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

US high-yield spreads, the extra yield on lower-rated company bonds over Treasuries, widened 5 bp to 316 bp on 13 October, still in the lower part of their normal 300–500 bp range; investment-grade spreads at 83 bp are at the bottom of their 80–150 bp range. Euro high-yield spreads widened 4 bp to 327 bp. The VIX closed at 15.27 on 13 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The US leg is dated 14 October and the euro leg 13 October, the latest curve the ECB has published. The 170 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 31 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.35% against 2.04%) and 139 bp of real-rate difference (2.84% against 1.45%), so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield fell 4 bp on 14 October, from 2.88% on 13 October.

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 139 bp here is a little below that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.84% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 14 Oct 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Source: US Treasury par curve, 14 October.

The 10-year's 2 bp fall on 14 October gained a holder about 0.15%, a third of a month of coupon, after a 3 bp fall on 13 October. The 30-year pays 0.70 pp more than the 2-year for more than seven times as much loss per 10 bp. The inflation figures lifted short maturities most (one-year +5 bp, two-year +3 bp), as markets added to the odds of a further Fed rise; even so, short maturities keep most of the income for far less exposure to such moves. For a holder of French 10-year debt, with a duration close to the US 10-year's 7.7, today's 5 bp rise cost roughly 0.4%.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 18:23 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

The dollar rose against every currency in the table, more than reversing Tuesday's 0.33% fall in the ICE index, as the inflation figures lifted US short-term yields and the odds of a further Fed rise. The euro fell 0.76% to $1.1119 and the pound 0.81% to $1.3143. The Swiss franc fell about as much as the euro against the dollar, and the yen less (0.28%), so the yen gained about 0.5% against the euro.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Prices are settlements (14 Oct 2026); day changes are settlement vs settlement (14 Oct vs 13 Oct 2026).

The December Brent contract (BZZ26) settled at $106.06, 0.35% above Tuesday's settlement, and the November WTI contract (CLX26) at $95.09, up 1.01%, narrowing the gap between the two benchmarks to $10.97 from $11.55 at Tuesday's settlements. Brent rose above $106 after Iranian officials said their forces plan to step up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and airports continue; Saudi Arabia has extended the closure of Riyadh's King Khalid airport to 17 October (OilPrice.com). The November WTI contract expires on 20 October. Brent is 15.89% below its 52-week high of $126.10 (range $58.72 to $126.10) and WTI 20.41% below its high of $119.48 (range $54.98 to $119.48).

Gold fell 1.66% to $4,107.90, 26.46% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026, and silver fell 6.13% to $55.88, 53.93% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same day. Neither pays interest, so both lose appeal when bond yields and the dollar rise, as they did after the inflation figures; silver was already down 4% at $57.14 earlier in the session (TechFlow, citing Bitget data). Copper fell 0.97% to $6.6605, slightly below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September. Natural gas fell 2.59% to $3.198, in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 14 Oct close): three of the eleven rose and eight fell. Health care (XLV) +2.53% led, followed by consumer staples (XLP) +2.22% and energy (XLE) +0.64%. Technology (XLK) −2.98% fell most, followed by communication services (XLC) −1.30%, industrials (XLI) −0.97%, real estate (XLRE) −0.81%, consumer discretionary (XLY) −0.77%, financials (XLF) −0.55%, utilities (XLU) −0.36% and materials (XLB) −0.10%. Among individual shares, Eli Lilly (+3.99%), Merck (+3.52%) and UnitedHealth (+3.25%) were among the day's largest gainers and Dell (−9.89%) and Oracle (−7.32%) among the largest losers in 24/7 Wall St's midday list of movers. The day's gainers were companies whose profits depend least on the economic cycle (drug makers, health insurers, consumer staples), along with energy, and its losers were led by technology (−2.98%) and communication services (−1.30%), the usual pattern when markets expect rates to stay higher for longer.

• Inflation and the Fed: core inflation at 2.6% against 2.5% forecast, Williams's suggestion of one more rise this year and the 27–28 October Fed meeting now set the tone for every asset in this briefing, from the 5-year Treasury to silver.
• Chips and AI spending: ASML's statement that it cannot meet AI-driven demand in 2027 and 2028 lifted European chip shares (ASML up almost 2%, Infineon +1.6%), but US technology shares still fell 2.98% once the inflation figures were out, and the US chip index has fallen more than 8% in five sessions (24/7 Wall St).
• Bank results: trading carried Morgan Stanley, whose equities revenue rose 41% (Benzinga), and BlackRock rose on record assets (24/7 Wall St), while Bank of America missed forecasts and took a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty.
• French public finances: the OAT-Bund spread widened 5 bp to 142 bp on the day Lagarde declined to promise central-bank support for French bonds.

Top Stories (Global)

• US September inflation 3.7%, core 2.6%, both above forecast. Petrol rose 9.1% and accounted for about half the monthly rise; the 2-year Treasury yield and the dollar rose and the Nasdaq 100 closed 2.02% lower (Yahoo Finance, Quartz).
• Bank of America misses; Morgan Stanley beats. Bank of America earned $0.91 a share against $1.10 expected, including a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty, and its shares fell as much as 9%; Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $20.3 billion against the $19.95 billion LSEG estimate and $232 billion of new client assets (Yahoo Finance, SEC filing, Benzinga, CNBC).
• ASML says it cannot fully meet 2027–28 demand. The chip-equipment maker raised the bottom of its full-year sales outlook to €44–45 billion from €43–45 billion, and its shares rose almost 2%, lifting European technology stocks (ASML, Reuters via Investing.com, IndexBox).
• Lagarde: France must fix its own debt. The ECB President played down any central-bank backstop for French bonds; the 10-year OAT yield rose 5 bp to 4.88% and the spread over Germany widened to 142 bp (IndexBox, Trading Economics).
• China's exports jump 36%, factory prices rise 5.0%. Both beat forecasts, the price rise the fastest since June 2022, while consumer prices rose only 0.9% (Investing.com, China Economic Review).
• Kospi gives up a 1.5% rebound. It closed 0.44% lower at 6,008.81, its sixth straight fall since 2 October, 14.21% below that day's close (Invezz).
• Silver falls 6.13%, gold 1.66%. Higher short-term US yields and a stronger dollar after the inflation figures hit metals that pay no interest.

Looking Ahead

• Wednesday 14 October (after the European close): the Fed's Beige Book survey of regional business conditions.
• Thursday 15 October: US retail sales and producer prices, UK August GDP, TSMC results; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; the European Council meets on 15–16 October; G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet (ZeroHedge, 13 Oct).
• Friday 16 October: US industrial production and import prices (ZeroHedge, 13 Oct).
• Next week and later: Germany's ZEW survey and UK labour figures on 20 October, the day of the first French vote on budget revenue and of the November WTI contract's expiry; Moody's review of France on 23 October; Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October; the Fed meets on 27–28 October and the Bank of Japan on 29–30 October; US midterm elections on 3 November.

Market closures - None in the next five days. - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (14 Oct 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, CPI and labour data); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 13 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q3); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures and sector funds via Yahoo Finance (14 Oct close) and FX via Yahoo Finance (as of 18:23 CEST); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, Investing.com, Reuters via Investing.com, IndexBox, Yahoo Finance, Quartz, Market Scholars, 24/7 Wall St, CNBC, Benzinga, SEC, Invezz, China Economic Review, BigGo Finance, OilPrice.com, TechFlow, Korea Times, FXStreet, ZeroHedge, Free Press Journal).