2026 10 13

Global Financial Briefing — Tuesday, 13 October 2026

Figures reflect the 13 Oct close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 13 Oct close; the euro AAA curve is the ECB's 12 Oct curve, the latest it had published.

Market Overview

The sell-off in memory-chip shares that hit Seoul on Monday deepened. South Korea's Kospi fell 5.46% to 6,035.35, dipping below 6,000 during the session, as foreign investors sold a net 4.51 trillion won of Korean shares while local retail investors and institutions bought (Korea Times). SK hynix lost 10.09% and Samsung Electronics 7.39%. Analysts gave several reasons: Samsung's share buyback has ended and SK hynix's is nearly complete, removing a steady buyer; a Financial Times report put OpenAI's annualised revenue at $50 billion, about 30% below the $70 billion reported earlier, which raised doubts about how much AI companies will spend on memory; and China's CXMT plans new server-memory products (Korea Times, Seoul Economic Daily). The Kospi has now fallen in five consecutive sessions, losing 13.83% since its 2 October close of 7,003.74. In Tokyo the Nikkei 225 fell 1.82%, its fourth fall in a row since its 6 October close of 70,683.98, as Kioxia, Tokyo Electron and Advantest were sold; the broader TOPIX index rose slightly, so the fall was confined to a few high-priced chip stocks with a large weight in the Nikkei (BigGo Finance, NewsOnJapan).

In New York the Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.31%, the Dow 0.35% and the S&P 500 0.02%. The third-quarter results season opened with the big banks. JPMorgan earned $5.57 a share against about $5.90 expected, its first miss in nearly three years, partly because of $658 million of losses on securities; Jamie Dimon warned of "sticky inflation" and rising interest rates (Yahoo Finance, Fortune). Goldman Sachs beat forecasts easily, earning $17.01 a share against $13.50 expected on strong equity trading, Citigroup also beat, and Wells Fargo beat on earnings but missed on revenue (Yahoo Finance); all four banks' shares nonetheless closed lower, Citigroup by 5.6%. Health care was the weakest US sector (−1.35%), with Johnson & Johnson's shares falling before the open on weaker sales of medical devices, while energy led (+1.80%).

Longer-dated US Treasury yields edged lower as the market reopened after Monday's Columbus Day holiday: the 10-year yield closed at 5.21%, 3 bp below its 9 October close, and the 30-year at 5.56%, 4 bp lower (US Treasury par curve). Fed Governor Waller said that higher long-term yields are already doing some of the Fed's tightening, but that AI investment could keep inflation elevated for two to three years (ActionForex). In Europe the French 10-year yield fell 7 bp to 4.84% on the day the National Assembly began debating the 2027 budget, narrowing France's extra borrowing cost over Germany to 137 bp from 143 bp on Monday (Trading Economics). The dollar fell 0.33% against the six currencies in the ICE index and the euro rose 0.29% to $1.1193. Brent crude settled 0.90% lower at $105.69 while WTI rose 0.43%. The IMF raised its forecast for world growth this year to 3.1% from 3.0% in July, while warning that the economy's resilience is reaching its limits (The Star, Fortune). US September inflation figures are due tomorrow.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 13 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 1.33% above its 50-day average and 7.59% above its 200-day average. The Nasdaq 100 is 2.53% below its 52-week high and 2.50% above its 50-day average. The Dow is 1.81% below its 50-day average and 5.62% below its 52-week high of 54,744.33. Brazil's Ibovespa, back from Monday's holiday, fell 1.04% and is 1.35% below its 52-week high, with the presidential runoff on 25 October.

Europe

European data reflects the 13 Oct 2026 close.

European indices ended almost unchanged; only the Swiss SMI rose meaningfully (+0.36%). The Euro STOXX 50, which holds only the largest euro-area companies, fell more, by 0.55%, to 6,167.01. In Paris the fall in French bond yields did not carry over to shares: the CAC 40 remains the weakest of the major European indices, 5.27% below its 50-day average, 4.87% below its 200-day average and only 4.30% above the bottom of its 52-week range (7,505.27 to 8,755.03). The STOXX 600 is 1.62% below its 50-day average and 1.53% above its 200-day average; the DAX is 2.04% below its 50-day average and 1.60% above its 200-day average.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects the 13 Oct 2026 close.

The Nikkei's change is against its 9 Oct close, Tokyo having been shut on Monday for Sports Day.

Korea's market triggered a "sidecar" at 09:47, a rule that temporarily suspends computer-driven sell orders after a sharp fall in index futures, its 26th this year; the smaller-company Kosdaq index fell only 1.43%, which suggests the selling was concentrated in the largest companies, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix (Korea Times). After the fall, Kospi companies are valued at 4.54 times the profits analysts expect over the next twelve months, a record low below the 4.74 of 30 July (Korea Times); a Daishin Securities analyst said that price implies the market expects profits 35% to 51% below current forecasts. The index is 9.71% below its 50-day and 5.34% below its 200-day average. The Nikkei, despite its fall, is still 2.71% above its 50-day average. Elsewhere in Asia markets were calm: the Hang Seng rose 0.30%, and the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.10%, staying only 1.60% above its 52-week low of 3,741.11.

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa reflect the 13 Oct New York close.

EEM's 0.62% fall in New York matches the Asian sessions that closed before New York opened: Korea fell 5.46%, while India (+1.60%), Hong Kong (+0.30%) and mainland China (+0.10%) rose, so the drop reflects Korea's weight in the index rather than a broad sale of emerging markets. India's Nifty recovered to 2.44% above its 52-week low of 22,179.90 but remains 4.08% below its 50-day average. The South Africa fund rose 0.86%.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 109); shown for reference only.

Nikkei 225 (1321.T): averages withheld because they include four days of 0.23x readings that were data errors (n = 108).

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): the reading fell to 28.5x from 30.4x on Monday while the index fell only 0.31%, so most of the change is in the earnings figure behind the ratio, not in the price. The S&P 500 reading (24.7x from 25.1x) moved for the same reason on a smaller scale.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 24.7x gives an earnings yield of 4.05% (1÷24.70). Against the 10-year Treasury at 5.21% (US Treasury par curve, 13 Oct) the earnings yield gap is −1.16 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more in income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.88% (US Treasury real curve, 13 Oct) the gap is +1.17 pp; the 2.33 pp between the two is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 28.5x has an earnings yield of 3.51%, 1.70 pp below the 10-year Treasury. The index's risk is concentrated in a few chip and AI companies, and today showed the channel: a report that OpenAI's revenue is lower than thought hit memory-chip makers from Seoul to Tokyo. The banks' results gave a mixed first read on the season: Goldman Sachs's profit rose 29% on a year earlier, while JPMorgan missed and its chief executive warned that inflation and rising rates will weigh (Yahoo Finance, Fortune). FactSet expects S&P 500 earnings per share to grow almost 30% on a year earlier (Fortune).

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 17.6x gives an earnings yield of 5.70% (1÷17.56); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.50% (ECB YC API, 12 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.20 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.46% (Trading Economics) it is +2.23 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.46% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.23 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 40.7% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (24.7x against 17.6x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside. The CAC 40 at 16.5x has an earnings yield of 6.07% (1÷16.47), 1.24 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.84%, a margin that widened slightly today because French bonds rallied. The DAX at 17.9x yields 5.59%, 2.13 pp above the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 16.5x yields 6.06%, 0.61 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.45%. For a French investor the budget is the near-term risk: the government proposes €54 billion of savings to cut the deficit from an estimated 5.4% of GDP this year to 5.0% in 2027, but the National Assembly's finance committee rejected the revenue half of the bill by 31 votes to 3, the first vote on revenue in the full chamber is on 20 October, and Moody's reviews France's rating on 23 October (FXStreet). A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so the euro's level against the dollar still feeds into their earnings.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy trades at 17.7x (earnings yield 5.64%), 2.63 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 3.00%. The reading returned on 9 October after four days of erroneous figures and is still well below the 22.7x of 2 October, so treat it with caution until it holds for longer. Today's fall shows that the Nikkei is dominated by a few chip-equipment and memory companies: it fell 1.82% while the broader TOPIX rose (BigGo Finance). The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September, by a 7–2 vote, from the 1.00% set in June (Free Press Journal); its next meeting is on 29–30 October. The yen gained 0.11% against the dollar to 158.39 but lost about 0.17% against the euro, which rose more, so an unhedged Japan fund lost slightly on the currency for a euro investor today.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 14.1x, the cheapest of the indices in the table and a 42.9% discount to the S&P 500. Korea shows that a low P/E is not a margin of safety on its own: Kospi companies are now valued at a record-low 4.54 times expected profits, yet foreign investors sold 4.51 trillion won of Korean shares today (Korea Times), and a Daishin Securities analyst said the price implies profits 35% to 51% below current forecasts. The won weakened by 10 won to 1,345.1 per dollar (Korea Times), even as the dollar fell against the major currencies. For a euro holder, the dollar's 0.33% fall against the ICE basket and the euro's rise mean the conversion effect worked slightly against an emerging-market fund today; the larger effect of a weaker local currency, foreign money leaving the market, applies whatever the investor's currency.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield above 5.2%, September inflation due tomorrow, and an index whose largest companies move together on news about AI spending and chips. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; against that, oil above $100, a French budget without a stable majority and the CAC 40 below both its 50- and 200-day averages. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E reading that has only just come back and needs confirming; the Nikkei's dependence on chip stocks, BOJ rate rises and the yen near 158 per dollar are the main risks. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with Korea's chip makers, oil, Brazil's 25 October runoff and continued foreign selling in Korea and India as the near-term risks.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The labour figures are the September release of 2 October; the CPI figures are August's. September's CPI is due tomorrow, Wednesday 14 October. Continuum Economics expects prices to have risen 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over twelve months, mostly from a 5.5% rise in energy prices led by petrol, with core prices (excluding food and energy) up only 0.2% on the month and 2.4% over twelve months (Continuum Economics, 29 September). The real yield fell 3 bp on 13 October, the first Treasury session since 9 October.

Other economic releases today (web search)

The IMF, publishing at its annual meetings in Bangkok, raised its 2026 forecast because investment in AI is offsetting part of the damage from higher energy prices. The forecast assumes oil averages $96 a barrel this year, about 41% more than last year, and that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume by March; the Middle East and Central Asia region is expected to shrink 0.3% this year. It sees the US growing 2.3% this year and next, China 4.5% and India 7.0% (The Star). There were no other major scheduled releases: Germany's ZEW survey of investor expectations and the UK labour market figures are both due on 20 October.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Fed raised its target range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting and next meets on 27–28 October. Governor Waller said today that inflation expectations remain well anchored, so the rise in long-term yields reflects expected growth rather than fear of inflation, and that higher yields weigh on housing and car purchases (Reuters via Investing.com, ActionForex); on 8 October he had said he expects further rate rises if the data come in as forecast, though not necessarily at consecutive meetings (Yahoo Finance). On 13 October markets priced four Bank of England rate rises over the next twelve months from the current 3.75% (Trading Economics).

Government Bond Yields

The USA row's day change is against the 9 Oct 2026 curve, the previous Treasury session (there was none on 12 Oct, Columbus Day). The Euro area AAA row's day change is against the 9 Oct 2026 curve. The other rows are 13 Oct evening quotes, with day changes as Trading Economics reports them.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 13 Oct 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +42 bp, positive, 17 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold. - 10Y-3M spread: +95 bp, positive, no recession signal.

OAT-Bund Spread: 137 bp (10-year OAT 4.84% against Bund 3.46%, Trading Economics, 13 Oct 2026), against 143 bp on Monday's quotes from the same source.

Positive US spreads of this size are what investors normally demand for lending for longer; they do not signal an expected recession. In the euro area France moved back towards Germany: its 10-year yield fell 7 bp while the Bund's eased 1 bp, so the spread narrowed by 6 bp on the day the budget debate opened, reversing Monday's widening. The German 10-year briefly fell below 3.45%, its lowest since 9 September, as US yields eased and investors sold chip stocks (Trading Economics). Italy's spread over Germany was about 110 bp, with the 10-year BTP at 4.56%, and Italy sold €7.0 billion of 3-, 7- and 15-year bonds, the top of its planned range (FXStreet). The 10-year gilt rose 1 bp to 5.45%, still the highest 10-year yield in the table, and the 2-year gilt 2 bp to 4.80%.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 13 Oct 2026: 3M 4.26%, 6M 4.34%, 1Y 4.48%, 2Y 4.79%, 3Y 4.90%, 5Y 5.00%, 7Y 5.11%, 10Y 5.21%, 20Y 5.60%, 30Y 5.56%; 2-to-10 slope +42 bp. Prior curves: 14 Sep and 11 Aug 2026. The 3-month bill at 4.26% is 38.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%, more than the usual 25 bp, consistent with markets still allowing for a further rate rise by December.

The US curve rises from 4.26% at three months to 5.60% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year. Since 14 September every maturity is higher, most at seven to thirty years (+22 to +24 bp) and least at one year (+11 bp), so the curve has steepened over the month.

Euro area AAA government curve, 12 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.55%, 1Y 2.91%, 2Y 3.07%, 5Y 3.20%, 10Y 3.50%, 20Y 3.80%, 30Y 3.76%; 2-to-10 slope +43 bp. Prior curves: 11 Sep and 12 Aug 2026. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 13 Oct 2026), shown as amber markers, differ from the plotted 12 Oct curve by at most 5 bp, at the 2-year (3.12% against 3.07%) and the 30-year (3.81% against 3.76%), and by 4 bp at the 10-year (3.46% against 3.50%). The curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run German bonds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so these gaps are the difference between the two measures rather than a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.55% at three months to 3.80% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year. Against 11 September it is within 6 bp at every maturity (the 2-year 6 bp lower, the 3-month 3 bp higher), while US yields from five to thirty years rose 20 to 24 bp over the same month.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 12 Oct 2026 vs 9 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 12 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

US high-yield spreads, the extra yield on lower-rated company bonds over Treasuries, are 311 bp, in the lower part of their normal 300–500 bp range; investment-grade spreads at 83 bp are at the bottom of their 80–150 bp range. Euro high-yield spreads are 323 bp. On Monday, when Micron fell 3.9% in New York, neither US spread moved. The VIX closed at 15.21 on 12 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading, and at 15.27 on 13 October (Yahoo Finance).

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The legs are dated differently (US 13 October, euro 12 October). The 171 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 29 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.33% against 2.04%) and 142 bp of real-rate difference (2.88% against 1.46%), so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield fell 3 bp on 13 October, from 2.91% on 9 October.

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 142 bp here is a little below that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.88% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 13 Oct 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Source: US Treasury par curve, 13 October.

The 30-year pays 0.77 pp more than the 2-year for more than seven times as much loss per 10 bp. Tomorrow's inflation figure is forecast to show prices rising at their fastest monthly pace since April, and Dimon and Waller both pointed today to inflation that may not fall quickly, so short maturities keep most of the income for far less exposure to a further rise in yields. For euro bonds the same arithmetic applies to France: at a duration close to the US 10-year's 7.7, today's 7 bp fall in the OAT yield was worth roughly 0.5% to a holder of a 10-year bond, more than reversing Monday's 4 bp rise, which shows how much the price of French debt now swings from one day to the next.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 19:25 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

The dollar fell 0.33% against the six currencies in the ICE index and lost ground against every currency in the table, reversing part of Monday's rise, as US bond yields eased (FXStreet). The euro rose 0.29% to $1.1193 and the pound 0.27% to $1.3246. The yen and the Swiss franc gained less than the euro against the dollar (0.11% and 0.13%), so both fell slightly against the euro.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Prices are settlements (13 Oct 2026); day changes are settlement vs settlement (13 Oct vs 12 Oct 2026).

The December Brent contract (BZZ26) settled at $105.69, 0.90% below Monday's settlement of $106.65, after Saudi Arabia's energy minister said the kingdom's supply remained resilient despite the Houthi attacks (OilPrice.com); the Korea Times also reported that oil eased after President Trump said he would hold off attacking Iran until after the US midterm elections. The November WTI contract (CLX26) settled 0.43% higher at $94.14, so the difference between the two benchmarks narrowed to $11.55 from $12.91 at Monday's settlements; the November WTI contract expires on 20 October. Brent is 16.19% below its 52-week high of $126.10 (range $58.72 to $126.10) and WTI 21.21% below its high of $119.48 (range $54.98 to $119.48).

Gold settled 0.32% lower at $4,177.30, 25.22% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026, and silver fell 1.63% to $59.525, 50.93% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same day. Copper fell 0.31% to $6.726, near its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September, 1.52% below it. Natural gas rose 3.66% to $3.283, still in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 13 Oct close): five of the eleven rose and six fell. Energy (XLE) +1.80% led, followed by communication services (XLC) +0.74%, utilities (XLU) +0.58%, materials (XLB) +0.57% and consumer discretionary (XLY) +0.08%. Health care (XLV) −1.35% fell most, followed by financials (XLF) −0.42%, industrials (XLI) −0.28%, consumer staples (XLP) −0.26%, real estate (XLRE) −0.21% and technology (XLK) −0.04%. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan gave up their early gains (Fortune), and all four closed lower, Citigroup by 5.6%, Wells Fargo 3.1%, JPMorgan 0.9% and Goldman Sachs 0.2% (Yahoo Finance prices). UnitedHealth raised its 2026 profit guidance to at least $20.50 a share and its shares rose 2% before the open (Yahoo Finance).

• Memory chips and AI spending: the end of Samsung's buyback, a report that OpenAI's revenue is about 30% lower than earlier reported and Chinese competition took SK hynix down 10.09% and Samsung 7.39% (Korea Times), and Kioxia, Tokyo Electron and Advantest led the Nikkei lower (BigGo Finance).
• Bank results: trading revenue carried Goldman Sachs and Citigroup (Citi's trading revenue rose 6% to $6.1 billion, equities up 14%), while JPMorgan missed on bond trading and $658 million of securities losses (Yahoo Finance, Fortune).
• Inflation and yields: Dimon's warning of sticky inflation, Waller's view that AI investment may keep inflation up for two to three years and tomorrow's CPI keep the focus on whether the Fed raises rates again on 27–28 October.
• French public finances: the 10-year OAT yield fell 7 bp on the day the budget debate began, but the government lacks a majority for the revenue measures and Moody's reviews France on 23 October (FXStreet).

Top Stories (Global)

• Kospi falls 5.46% to 6,035.35. Foreign investors sold a net 4.51 trillion won; SK hynix fell 10.09% and Samsung Electronics 7.39%, and the index is 13.83% below its 2 October close after five falling sessions (Korea Times).
• Nikkei drops 1.82% on chip stocks. Kioxia, Tokyo Electron and Advantest led its fourth consecutive fall since 6 October, while the broader TOPIX rose (BigGo Finance, NewsOnJapan).
• US banks open the results season. JPMorgan missed forecasts for the first time in nearly three years ($5.57 a share against about $5.90), Goldman Sachs earned $17.01 against $13.50 expected, Citigroup beat and Wells Fargo missed on revenue; all four banks' shares closed lower, Citigroup by 5.6% (Yahoo Finance, Fortune).
• IMF raises 2026 world growth forecast to 3.1%. AI investment offsets part of the energy shock; the forecast assumes oil at $96 on average this year and Hormuz shipments resuming by March (The Star, Fortune).
• Waller: high long-term yields are doing some of the Fed's work. He said AI investment could keep inflation elevated for two to three years, ahead of September CPI tomorrow (ActionForex).
• French budget debate opens; OAT yield falls 7 bp to 4.84%. The plan seeks €54 billion to cut the deficit to 5.0% of GDP in 2027, after the finance committee rejected the revenue measures 31 to 3 (FXStreet, Trading Economics).
• Brent settles 0.90% lower at $105.69. Saudi Arabia said its oil supply remains resilient after the Houthi attacks (OilPrice.com).

Looking Ahead

• Wednesday 14 October: US September CPI, forecast at 3.7% over twelve months (core 2.4%) by Continuum Economics; the Fed's Beige Book survey of regional business conditions; China's September consumer and producer prices and trade; ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock report (ZeroHedge); France's National Assembly votes on Article 1 of the budget (FXStreet).
• Thursday 15 October: US retail sales and producer prices, UK August GDP, TSMC results; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in conversation with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok; the European Council meets on 15–16 October; G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet (ZeroHedge).
• Friday 16 October: US industrial production and import prices (ZeroHedge).
• Next week and later: Germany's ZEW survey and UK labour figures on 20 October, the day of the first French vote on budget revenue and of the November WTI contract's expiry; Moody's review of France on 23 October; Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October; the Fed meets on 27–28 October and the Bank of Japan on 29–30 October; US midterm elections on 3 November.

Market closures - None in the next five days. - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (13 Oct 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 12 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q3); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity settlements and sector funds via Yahoo Finance (13 Oct closes), FX via Yahoo Finance (as of 19:25 CEST); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, FXStreet, Korea Times, Seoul Economic Daily, BigGo Finance, NewsOnJapan, Yahoo Finance, Fortune, The Star, ActionForex, Reuters via Investing.com, Continuum Economics, OilPrice.com, Free Press Journal, ZeroHedge).