2026 11 04

Global Financial Briefing — Wednesday, 4 November 2026

Figures reflect the 4 Nov close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve and the euro AAA curve are the 4 Nov closes.

Market Overview

Shares rose on both sides of the Atlantic on the first trading day after the US midterm elections, in which the Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, and President Trump accepted the results (Trading Economics). The Dow closed up 3.03%, the S&P 500 1.58% and the Nasdaq 100 0.91% (Yahoo Finance). Investors read a divided Washington as limiting new tax cuts and extra spending, and so the amount the government needs to borrow (Trading Economics). The gains were led by large consumer and software companies: Amazon rose 6.12%, Microsoft 6.68% and Apple 5.31%, and the hospital operator HCA 10.34% as health insurers and hospital groups rose (Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics). Chip makers did not join in, with Micron down 7.00% and Nvidia 3.17%, on worries that newly elected lawmakers will tighten the rules on AI data centres (Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics). AMD, which beat forecasts after Tuesday's close, rose 1.01%. Defence and energy shares fell: Lockheed Martin lost 6.88% and Exxon Mobil 4.62% (Yahoo Finance). The VIX, the index of expected US share-price swings, closed at 16.61, down from 20.83 on Tuesday (FRED VIXCLS, 4 Nov).

Oil fell hardest. The January Brent contract (BZF27) settled at $94.62, 8.67% below Tuesday's settlement, and Reuters put Brent at its lowest since 4 September. Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the US had no immediate plans to strike Iran, and Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial said a Democratic Congress could restrain US military spending in the Middle East and so bring a peace deal sooner (Reuters, via Yahoo Finance). Gulf exports fell to 17.1 million barrels a day in October from 18.9 million in September, about three-quarters of their pre-war level (Vortexa, via Reuters). A small fall in US crude stocks, against an expected rise, did not hold prices up. Gold rose 3.37% and silver 5.08% as the dollar weakened: the ICE dollar index was down 0.27% at 101.59 and the euro up 0.26% at $1.1221 at 19:53 CEST (Yahoo Finance).

Bond yields fell. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.90%, 5 bp lower on the day, and the 30-year at 5.28%, 4 bp lower (US Treasury par curve, 4 Nov). The Treasury said at its quarterly refunding that it expects to keep the size of its note and bond auctions unchanged for several quarters, and futures put the chance of a Fed rate rise in December at about 77% on 4 November, down from 84% a week earlier (Trading Economics). In Europe, euro-area inflation rose to 4.0% in October, its highest since September 2023, driven by energy, while core inflation stayed at 2.5% (Trading Economics). Even so, European yields fell with Treasuries, most in the UK, France and Italy, and the STOXX 600 had its biggest rise since 6 May, 1.82%, and the DAX gained 2.22%, led by banks (Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics). Switzerland's SMI closed at a record. In Asia, Tokyo reopened after Tuesday's holiday and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.42% as chip and AI-related shares slid, while Shanghai rose 2.16% after China's central bank stepped up support for share buying (Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics).

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 4 Nov close.

The Dow is price-weighted, so a stock's effect on it is its move in dollars: Microsoft rose $34.81, Goldman Sachs $31.91, Sherwin-Williams $22.63, Home Depot $21.78 and Apple $17.61, while Caterpillar's $32.64 fall (−5.23%) was the largest drag and Chevron fell $8.31 (Yahoo Finance). McDonald's rose 6.53% after reporting third-quarter global comparable sales up 1.5%, with US sales down 0.2%, and raising its quarterly dividend 4% to $1.93 a share (McDonald's 8-K). The S&P 500 is 0.05% below its 50-day average, 5.09% above its 200-day and 1.99% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq 100 is 4.42% below its 50-day average and 1.73% above its 200-day. The Dow is 2.31% above its 50-day average and 2.54% below its 52-week high of 54,744.33. Brazil's IBOV is 10.90% below its 50-day average.

Europe

European data reflects the 4 Nov 2026 close.

Banks led Europe as bond yields fell and investors bought risk: Deutsche Bank rose 7.7% and Commerzbank 4.8% in Frankfurt, HSBC nearly 5% in London, with Lloyds, Barclays and Standard Chartered about 4% each, and Société Générale 3.4% and BNP Paribas 2.3% in Paris (Trading Economics). Defence companies fell on the prospect that a Democratic Congress restrains US military spending, which could also affect European defence budgets: Thales lost 3.7%, Rheinmetall 3% and BAE Systems more than 3% (Trading Economics). Wind-power companies rose, Ørsted by 5% and Vestas by 3.1%, as the result was seen as better for clean-energy investment, and Novo Nordisk gained 3.1% by midday after beating earnings expectations (Trading Economics). Oil companies fell with crude, BP by 2.7% and Shell by 1.6% (Trading Economics). In Paris, Kering rose 6.57% and Hermès and Renault 5.03% each, even though France's final services PMI for October was 46.2, down from 51.2: below 50, more firms reported falling activity than rising (Trading Economics). The CAC 40 is 1.71% above its 50-day average, 0.30% below its 200-day and 6.59% below its 52-week high. In Frankfurt, Heidelberg Materials rose more than 9% after third-quarter results beat forecasts and Continental 5.2% after raising its 2026 margin and cash-flow targets (Trading Economics); the DAX is 3.40% above its 50-day average. In London, Marks & Spencer rose 6.71% after first-half sales beat expectations, while Weir fell nearly 10% (Trading Economics); the FTSE 100 had its biggest rise since 6 May (Trading Economics) and is 1.22% above its 50-day average. Switzerland's SMI rose 1.90% to 15,022.85, a record close, above the previous record close of 14,863.48 (Yahoo Finance price history), with the franc also up 0.39% against the dollar. The STOXX 600 is 0.91% below its 52-week high of 663.41.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects the 4 Nov 2026 close.

Tokyo had been closed on Tuesday for Culture Day, so the Nikkei's change is against Monday's close and is its first session since the US election. The index fell as much as 4.84% during the day, to a five-month low of 60,030, before recovering part of the fall; chip and electronic-component makers led the decline, with Murata Manufacturing down 9.84%, Taiyo Yuden 9.01%, Tokyo Electron 3.4%, Advantest 3.4% and SoftBank Group 3.2% (Trading Economics). The Nikkei is 5.23% below its 50-day average and 0.57% above its 200-day. In Shanghai the Composite rose 2.16% and the Shenzhen Component 4.22% after the People's Bank of China said applications for its loan scheme to fund share purchases had passed 200 billion yuan and it arranged 100 billion yuan of swaps with brokers and fund managers for the same purpose; chip shares led, with SMIC up 9.0% and Cambricon 10.38% (Trading Economics). Shanghai is still 3.92% below its 50-day average. Korea's Kospi swung from a 2.43% gain to a 4.0% loss before closing 0.62% higher, with Samsung Electronics up 0.34% and SK hynix 1.0%, while the battery maker LG Energy Solution fell 6.21% (Trading Economics); the Kospi is 12.27% below its 50-day average. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.67% and Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.59%.

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa reflect the 4 Nov New York close.

EEM trades in New York after Asia has closed, so its 0.85% rise is New York's valuation of emerging markets after the US election result. Today the local closes broadly agree with it: Hong Kong rose 1.67%, Shanghai 2.16%, Korea 0.62% and India 0.63%. With the euro up 0.26% against the dollar, the fund was up about 0.6% for a euro investor. EEM is 6.49% below its 50-day average. India's Nifty is 3.13% above its 50-day average. South Africa's fund rose 4.10% on a day gold rose 3.37% and the dollar weakened.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 125; 121 for the Nikkei proxy); shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM, read at 19:53 CEST; the SPY, QQQ and EEM readings are restated to the 4 Nov close by the ratio of the closing price to the 19:53 CEST price, which is exact because trailing earnings are fixed.

Most trailing P/E ratios rose today because prices rose, not because earnings changed; the Nikkei proxy's fell with Tokyo's decline.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 24.3x gives an earnings yield of 4.11% (1÷24.33). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 4.90% (US Treasury par curve, 4 Nov) the earnings yield gap is −0.79 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.64% (US Treasury real curve, 4 Nov) the gap is +1.47 pp; the 2.26 pp difference is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 26.5x has an earnings yield of 3.78%, 1.12 pp below the 10-year Treasury. The S&P 500 is 0.05% below its 50-day average and 1.99% below its 52-week high. The election result has removed one uncertainty, and investors bought the largest consumer and software companies while selling chip makers on the prospect of tighter rules for AI data centres. Friday's October jobs report, with 55,000 jobs expected (Stock Titan, as cited in the 2 Nov briefing), and a December Fed rise that futures still put at about 77% on 4 November (Trading Economics) are the next tests for a market whose earnings yield is below the bond yield.

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 18.2x gives an earnings yield of 5.50% (1÷18.20); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.34% (ECB YC API, 4 Nov) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.16 pp, and against the 10-year Bund quote of 3.28% (Trading Economics) it is +2.22 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.32% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.18 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 33.7% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (24.3x against 18.2x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside.

October's 4.0% euro-area inflation rate is the main risk to that cushion. It came from energy, up 20.8% on a year earlier, while core inflation held at 2.5%, and Brent's fall today works against it; but the ECB, which held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October after discussing a rise (as cited in the 29 Oct briefing), still has a December rise in view (Trading Economics). In France, the CAC 40 at 17.3x has an earnings yield of 5.80% (1÷17.25), 0.97 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.82%. French 10-year yields fell about 12 bp against 3 bp for Germany, narrowing the gap by about 9 bp to 154 bp, but the services PMI at 46.2 shows French activity shrinking, and Fitch's negative outlook and the unfinished 2027 budget remain (as cited in the 3 Nov briefing). The DAX at 18.7x yields 5.34%, 2.06 pp over the 10-year Bund quote of 3.28% and 2.00 pp over the euro AAA 10-year, and the FTSE 100 at 16.8x yields 5.96%, 0.80 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.16%. A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so their earnings in euros still move with the currency.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E is 16.3x (earnings yield 6.14%), 3.32 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 2.82% (Trading Economics, 4 Nov close), which rose about 5 bp in its first session since Monday, after Tuesday's rise in yields elsewhere. The Bank of Japan held its rate at 1.25% on 30 October with one member voting for a rise, and said underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, which leaves a December rise possible (Trading Economics). The index's fall today came from chip and electronic-component makers, which have driven its recent moves in both directions. The yen strengthened 0.14% against the dollar to 158.40 but, with the euro rising more, slipped about 0.1% against the euro, so the currency made little difference to a euro investor in an unhedged Japan fund today.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 13.2x, the cheapest index in the table and a 45.7% discount to the S&P 500. A weaker dollar and lower US yields, as today, ease the cost of dollar debts for emerging-market borrowers and make their assets more attractive to foreign investors, and China's central bank added support for mainland shares. A December Fed rise would work the other way. For a euro investor, a dollar move largely offsets in the currency conversion, because the euro usually moves against the dollar too; the economic effects of the dollar on these companies (the cost of dollar debt, money moving in or out of their markets) are not offset.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield near 5% and a likely December rate rise; the election rally lifted prices, and so P/E ratios, further. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; euro-area inflation at 4.0% keeps a December ECB rise in view, and France's services activity is contracting. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 16.3x, with a Bank of Japan that now says its inflation target has been reached and an index driven by a few chip companies. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with returns concentrated in Asian chip makers and sensitive to the dollar and to US rates.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

These monthly figures are unchanged from Tuesday's briefing; October's payroll and unemployment figures are due on Friday 6 November.

Other economic releases today (web search)

The euro-area inflation rise was almost all energy: energy prices were 20.8% higher than a year earlier, up from 18.9% in September, while core inflation held at 2.5% and services rose to 3.3% from 3.2% (Trading Economics). The country figures diverge widely: Italy rose to 5.6% from 4.2% and France to 3.8% from 3.4%, while Germany fell to 2.8% from 3.3%, partly because of a temporary cut in fuel tax, and Spain eased to 4.9% from 5.0% (Trading Economics). In the US, private employers added 86,000 jobs in October according to ADP, more than the 69,000 expected. The ISM services index, at 54.5, shows activity still growing but a little more slowly; its new-orders component fell to 55.9 from 59.8 and its prices-paid component, which is not part of the headline, stayed high at 73.0, so most service firms are still paying more for inputs (Trading Economics). The final S&P Global services PMI was revised down to 56.1 from the flash estimate of 57.9 (Trading Economics). A PMI counts how many firms report improvement, not by how much, so these readings say growth is widespread rather than fast.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Bank of England decides on Thursday 5 November, with markets widely expecting its first rate rise since 2023 (Trading Economics); Norway's Norges Bank also decides that day (Saxo, as cited in the 3 Nov briefing). Futures put the chance of a Fed rise in December at about 77% on 4 November (Trading Economics). SONIA, shown for the Bank of England, runs a few basis points below Bank Rate, which Trading Economics gives as 3.75%.

Government Bond Yields

The USA day change is against the 3 Nov 2026 curve from the same feed. The Germany row is the ECB's fitted euro AAA curve, with its day change against the 3 Nov 2026 curve; the 10-year Bund quote was 3.28% (Trading Economics, 4 Nov 2026), about 3 bp lower on the day.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 4 Nov 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +32 bp, positive, 7 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold, −2 bp on the day. - 10Y-3M spread: +69 bp, positive, no recession signal, −5 bp on the day.

OAT-Bund Spread: 154 bp (10-year OAT 4.82% against Bund 3.28%, Trading Economics, 4 Nov 2026 intraday).

European yields fell with Treasuries after the US election, despite the euro-area inflation figure. Gilts, French and Italian bonds moved most: the 10-year gilt fell about 11 bp to 5.16%, close to its lowest in two months, and the 2-year about 13 bp to 4.74%, the day before an expected Bank of England rise (Trading Economics). German yields fell about 4 bp at two and five years and 3 bp at ten, less than other European bonds because the inflation data pointed to continuing price pressure (Trading Economics). French and Italian 10-year yields fell further, by about 12 bp to 4.82% and 14 bp to 4.32%, so their gap over Germany narrowed by about 9 bp to 154 bp for France and about 11 bp to 104 bp for Italy. Japan's 10-year yield rose about 5 bp to 2.82% as Tokyo reopened after its holiday. Treasury yields fell most in the middle of the curve: the 5-year and 7-year yields dropped 5 bp and 6 bp, the 2-year 3 bp, and the 3-month bill was unchanged at 4.21%.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 4 Nov 2026: 3M 4.21%, 6M 4.25%, 1Y 4.39%, 2Y 4.58%, 3Y 4.64%, 5Y 4.69%, 7Y 4.77%, 10Y 4.90%, 20Y 5.30%, 30Y 5.28%; 2-to-10 slope +32 bp. Day change against the 3 Nov 2026 curve: 3M 0 bp, 6M −1 bp, 1Y −1 bp, 2Y −3 bp, 3Y −4 bp, 5Y −5 bp, 7Y −6 bp, 10Y −5 bp, 20Y −5 bp, 30Y −4 bp. The 3-month bill at 4.21% is 33.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%.

The US curve rises from 4.21% at three months to 5.30% at 20 years, with the 30-year 2 bp below the 20-year. Against 5 October it is 26 bp lower at two years, 41 bp lower at ten and 38 bp lower at thirty, so the 2-to-10 slope has narrowed from 47 bp to 32 bp. The 3-month bill sits 33.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint, in line with futures pricing a December rise.

Euro area AAA government curve, 4 Nov 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.59%, 1Y 2.89%, 2Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.08%, 10Y 3.34%, 20Y 3.64%, 30Y 3.62%; 2-to-10 slope +34 bp.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.59% at three months to 3.64% at 20 years, with the 30-year 2 bp below the 20-year; against 5 October it is unchanged at two years, 16 bp lower at ten and 15 bp lower at thirty, so its slope has narrowed from 50 bp to 34 bp. On the day it barely moved: the 2-year rose 1 bp and the 10-year fell 1 bp, so the slope narrowed by 2 bp. That is less than the 3 bp to 4 bp falls in the Bund quotes (Trading Economics); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 4 Nov 2026 vs 3 Nov 2026.

US high-yield spreads at 332 bp and investment-grade at 91 bp are both inside their normal ranges (300 to 500 bp and 80 to 150 bp), and Euro high yield is at 345 bp.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

The US real yield is a market price, because inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) trade; the euro real yield is derived by subtracting a survey's inflation expectation from the nominal yield, so it is the softer of the two numbers. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. On 4 November for both legs, the 156 bp gap between the US and euro 10-year yields splits into 24 bp of difference in expected inflation (2.26% against 2.02%) and 132 bp of difference in real yields (2.64% against 1.32%), so it is almost entirely a real-rate difference. The euro survey expectation of 2.02% is a five-year view and is not moved by October's 4.0% inflation reading. The US real yield fell 1 bp on 4 November, from 2.65%, against a 5 bp fall in the nominal 10-year, so most of the day's fall in Treasury yields came from lower expected inflation, consistent with the drop in oil.

The US–euro real rate gap is not an investment opportunity

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and today's 132 bp is under that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, Bund scarcity, US fiscal supply), not a trade a EUR-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a dollar bet rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.64% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 4 Nov 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Computed from the US Treasury par curve, 4 November.

The settled 5 bp fall at the 10-year on 4 November added about 0.4% to a holder's price, roughly a month of coupon.

The S&P 500's earnings yield of 4.11% is 0.79 pp below the 4.90% settled 10-year Treasury yield and 1.47 pp above the 2.64% real yield; the STOXX 600's 5.50% is 2.16 pp above the euro AAA 10-year yield. A bond holder locks in a fixed coupon, while an equity holder receives only the paid-out part of earnings in cash and takes the risk that earnings change. With Friday's jobs report and a possible December Fed rise ahead, short maturities keep most of the income for a quarter of the 10-year's price risk: a 10 bp rise costs a 2-year 0.19% against 0.78% for a 10-year.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 19:53 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Prices are settlements (4 Nov 2026); day changes are against the prior session's settlement (3 Nov 2026).

Both oil contracts are the ones Tuesday's table showed, the January Brent contract (BZF27) and the December WTI contract (CLZ26), so the levels are comparable; the December WTI contract expires on 20 November, so no roll is imminent. Brent settled at $94.62, in a 52-week range of $58.72 to $126.10, and WTI at $88.12, in a range of $54.98 to $119.48. Gold, at $4,073.00, is 27.1% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026, and silver, at $52.282, is 56.9% below its all-time high of $121.300 set the same day, and 9.4% above its 52-week low of $47.794. Copper, at $6.4290, is 5.9% below its all-time high of $6.8300 set on 22 September 2026. Natural gas, at $2.959, is in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Crypto: Bitcoin rose 3.78% against its 3 Nov close to about $80,269 and Ether 6.52% to about $2,421 (Yahoo Finance BTC-USD, ETH-USD, 19:53 CEST).

Sector & Theme Highlights

The S&P 500's sector funds show a market that bought domestic consumer and financial companies and sold energy, defence and chips. Consumer discretionary (XLY) rose 4.26%, carried by Amazon, financials (XLF) 3.51%, communication services (XLC) 3.47%, consumer staples (XLP) 3.36%, real estate (XLRE) 3.32% and health care (XLV) 3.06% (Yahoo Finance). Energy (XLE) fell 4.74% with oil, and industrials (XLI) 1.09%, with Caterpillar down 5.23% and the defence companies Lockheed Martin 6.88%, Northrop Grumman 4.53% and RTX 2.64% (Yahoo Finance). Technology (XLK) closed flat (−0.01%): gains in Microsoft and Apple were offset by falls in Micron, Nvidia and Broadcom (−2.00%).

Three themes ran across markets. Defence fell everywhere, in New York, London, Paris and Frankfurt, on the view that a Democratic Congress will restrain US military spending. Chip and AI-related shares fell in Tokyo and New York on the prospect of tighter rules for data centres, while China's chip makers rose on Beijing's support. Banks rose in Europe and the US as yields fell and risk appetite returned, and clean-energy companies such as Ørsted and Vestas gained on hopes of more support for renewables (Trading Economics).

Top Stories (Global)

• Democrats take Congress, shares rise: after the Democrats won both chambers, the Dow closed up 3.03% and the S&P 500 1.58%, and Trump accepted the results; investors expect less room for tax cuts and new spending and tighter scrutiny of AI (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance).
• Oil falls more than 8%: the January Brent contract settled at $94.62, down 8.67% and at its lowest since early September, as traders weighed a quicker end to the US-Israeli war with Iran; Iran's Supreme Leader said US hostility would persist whichever party held power, and Qatar stepped up its mediation (Reuters, via Yahoo Finance).
• Euro-area inflation at 4.0%: October's flash estimate, the highest since September 2023, was driven by energy; core inflation held at 2.5%, and Italy's rate jumped to 5.6% (Trading Economics).
• European shares post biggest rise since 6 May: banks led, Deutsche Bank up 7.7%, while defence companies fell; Switzerland's SMI closed at a record (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance).
• Treasury holds auction sizes: the US Treasury expects to keep note and bond auction sizes unchanged for several quarters and estimates fourth-quarter borrowing at $618 billion, $10 billion less than in August (Trading Economics).
• China backs its stock market: the People's Bank of China said applications for its share-purchase loan scheme passed 200 billion yuan and arranged 100 billion yuan of swaps with brokers and fund managers; Shanghai rose 2.16% (Trading Economics).
• Tokyo reopens lower: the Nikkei fell 1.42% after touching a five-month low during the day, with Murata Manufacturing down 9.84% (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance).
• Qualcomm and AppLovin report after the close: Qualcomm's adjusted earnings of $2.17 a share were roughly in line with forecasts on revenue of about $10.4 billion, down 7% on a year earlier, as handset revenue fell 26% and automotive revenue rose 89%; its guidance of $2.15 to $2.35 a share for the current quarter was below forecasts, and it expects the margin on its chip business to fall to 20% to 22% from 24% as memory and other input costs rise, and its shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading (Quartz, citing Reuters). AppLovin's revenue rose 55% to $2.18 billion and its earnings of $4.30 a share beat the $4.04 expected; it forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $2.37 billion to $2.40 billion, above the $2.25 billion expected, and its shares rose more than 16% after hours (AppLovin; Investing.com).

Looking Ahead

• Thursday 5 November: the Bank of England's decision, with a rate rise widely expected, its first since 2023 (Trading Economics), and Norges Bank's; results from ConocoPhillips, Deutsche Telekom, Airbnb, Lumentum (Saxo, as cited in the 3 Nov briefing) and Leonardo (Trading Economics).
• Friday 6 November: the US jobs report for October, with 55,000 jobs expected (Stock Titan, as cited in the 2 Nov briefing).
• Further out: the second estimate of euro-area third-quarter GDP on 13 November (as cited in the 30 Oct briefing); the deadline for the National Assembly's first reading of the 2027 budget's revenue part at midnight on 17 November (Cointelegraph, as cited in the 3 Nov briefing); S&P Global's review of France's rating on 27 November (The Local, as cited in the 3 Nov briefing).

Market closures - None in the next five days (5 Nov to 9 Nov 2026). - Further out: the US bond market, not stocks, closes on 11 Nov 2026 for Veterans Day; Brazil 20 Nov 2026 (Black Consciousness Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (4 Nov 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 4 Nov 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q4); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures, live yields and FX via Yahoo Finance (FX quoted at 19:53 CEST); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, Reuters, NBC News, SEC (McDonald's 8-K)).