2026 10 28

Global Financial Briefing — Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Figures reflect the 28 Oct close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the German, French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 28 Oct close; the euro AAA curve is the ECB's 27 Oct curve, the latest published.

Market Overview

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75–4.00%, as nearly everyone expected, but two of the twelve voters wanted to raise it: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point rise, after a unanimous 12–0 vote at the 15–16 September meeting that took the range to its current level (Yahoo Finance; CNBC; the September rise as cited in the 20 Oct briefing). The statement upgraded its description of growth from "solid" to "strong" and dropped the sentence saying that the policy action would support a return to 2% inflation, saying instead that the information it receives will help it ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal (Yahoo Finance, citing Bloomberg). Before the decision, futures priced an 84% chance of a rise at the December meeting (CME FedWatch via Yahoo Finance). At his press conference Chair Kevin Warsh said the committee will deliver price stability, said politics had played no part in the decision, and announced that from 2027 the committee will set rates at seven of its eight meetings, keeping the other for a broader discussion of strategy; he did little to challenge expectations of a December rise, which traders put at about 85% afterwards (investingLive; Yahoo Finance; Axios, citing CME FedWatch). The S&P 500 closed 0.28% higher at 7,743.98 and the Nasdaq 100 0.55% higher, while Treasury yields rose from five years out: the 10-year by 6 bp to 5.05% and the 5-year by 3 bp to 4.85% (US Treasury par curve, 28 Oct).

The day's large move was in Seoul. Korea's Kospi rose 6.63% to 6,012.44, its largest daily gain since 31 July, when it rose 17.91%, and its first close above 6,000 since 14 October, after SK hynix reported third-quarter revenue of 104.6 trillion won and an operating profit of 83.3 trillion won, both above the FnGuide consensus of 96.7 trillion and 76.0 trillion, and set out about 100 trillion won ($75 billion) of shareholder returns for 2026 (SK hynix via Yahoo Finance; Seoul Economic Daily; Korea JoongAng Daily). SK hynix rose 10.89% and Samsung Electronics 9.01%, and foreign investors bought a net 815.8 billion won of Kospi shares (Korea JoongAng Daily). In Tokyo the memory-chip maker Kioxia rose 13.76% and SoftBank Group 4.65% (Tradingkey), and the Nikkei 225 gained 1.08%. Mainland China recovered part of Tuesday's fall, the Shanghai Composite rising 0.91%.

Oil rebounded: the December WTI contract (CLZ26) settled at $102.78, 2.88% above Tuesday's settlement, on reports that the United States was preparing to renew strikes on Iran after the midterm elections and on further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia (CNBC; The National). The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 bp to 2.50%, its first rise since July 2023, saying its inflation outlook had worsened and oil prices were expected to stay higher for longer (Bank of Canada; TD Economics). Europe ended flat ahead of the ECB's decision on Thursday, with the STOXX 600 up 0.07%; the UK budget, the first from Chancellor John Healey, passed without disturbing markets, and the 10-year gilt yield eased about 2 bp to 5.33% (Trading Economics; MarketScreener). Brazil's Ibovespa fell 2.68% in its third session since President Lula's re-election on 25 October.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 28 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 0.60% above its 50-day average, 6.04% above its 200-day average and 1.28% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq 100 closed level with its 50-day average and 4.94% below its 52-week high of 31,361.37; after the close Microsoft's shares rose about 4% in extended trading on results above forecasts, while Alphabet's fell about 10% (investingLive; SiliconANGLE). The Dow is 0.42% above its 50-day average. Brazil's Ibovespa fell 2.68% to 171,006.10 as investors waited to learn who will be finance minister in President Lula's new term and what it means for the budget (InfoMoney). It fell 13.88% on 26 October, the first session after his re-election, and 0.51% on 27 October, and now stands 9.06% below its 50-day average.

Europe

European data reflects today's close (28 Oct).

European indices barely moved while company results moved individual shares sharply. The CAC 40 closed unchanged at 7,886.96, after trading between 7,870.75 and 7,918.74; Stellantis rose about 15% after a smaller loss and confirmation of all its targets for the year, and Danone 2.62% on sales above forecasts, while Dassault Systèmes fell 4.50% after a raise to its annual targets that investors judged too small (Boursorama; Zonebourse). The CAC 40 is 2.50% below its 50-day average and 3.89% below its 200-day, still the weakest major European index against its trend. Bank results pulled in both directions: by midday Deutsche Bank was up 3.6% after raising its revenue forecast to more than €33 billion and Standard Chartered 3.7%, while Santander was down 4.9% after profit in Brazil fell 15%, BNP Paribas 1.4% despite a 14% rise in profit, and UBS 1.1% (XTB, 12:36 CET). The payments company Adyen fell 11.8% by midday after cutting its 2026 margin target, and the flavourings maker Symrise 12% after warning of a weaker end to the year (XTB). The DAX gained 0.44% and sits 0.44% above its 50-day average. The FTSE 100 edged up 0.07% on budget day.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects today's close (28 Oct).

The Kospi's 6.63% rise came on heavy buying by foreign investors (a net 815.8 billion won) and domestic institutions (960.8 billion won), while individuals sold a net 1.8 trillion won (Korea JoongAng Daily). Even so the index is 8.47% below its 50-day average and 35.94% below its 52-week high of 9,385.59. The Nikkei 225 rose for a second day, after 27 October's 1.73% gain, and is 3.09% below its 50-day average. The Shanghai Composite regained 0.91% after Tuesday's 1.33% fall and is 3.00% above its 52-week low of 3,574.27; the Hang Seng rose 0.23% and is 2.56% above its 52-week low of 22,518.00. Australia's ASX 200 closed flat after third-quarter inflation figures led markets to price close to a 90% chance of a Reserve Bank of Australia rise in November (ABC News; see the releases below).

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa (EZA) reflect the 28 Oct New York close.

EEM trades in New York after Asia has closed, so its 1.60% gain is New York's valuation of emerging markets today rather than the sum of the local closes, which diverged: Korea rose 6.63% and Shanghai 0.91%, Hong Kong 0.23%, while India's Nifty fell 0.22%. Taiwan's close is not covered here. EEM's gain is far smaller than Korea's, as Korea is only one of several large markets in the index. With the euro up 0.08% against the dollar, the gain is about 1.5% for a euro investor. South Africa's fund rose 0.53% and is 6.25% below its 200-day average.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 120; 116 for the Nikkei proxy); shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM, priced off each market's 28 Oct close.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 24.5x gives an earnings yield of 4.08% (1÷24.52). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 5.05% (US Treasury par curve, 28 Oct) the earnings yield gap is −0.97 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.67% (US Treasury real curve, 28 Oct) the gap is +1.41 pp; the 2.38 pp between the two is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 27.8x has an earnings yield of 3.60%, 1.45 pp below the 10-year Treasury. The S&P 500 sits 0.60% above its 50-day average. The Fed's statement and its chair's press conference left a December rise in play, with two officials already voting for one. After the close, investors' attention to AI spending showed in the two results: Alphabet's shares fell about 10% in extended trading after it kept its 2026 capital spending guidance at $195 billion to $205 billion, said spending would rise significantly in 2027 and reported that its spending exceeded its operating cash flow by about $9 billion in the quarter, while Microsoft's rose about 4% on Azure cloud growth of 48% (investingLive; Investing.com; SiliconANGLE). Amazon reports on 29 October (Marc to Market, as cited in the 26 Oct briefing).

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 17.8x gives an earnings yield of 5.61% (1÷17.82); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.37% (ECB YC API, 27 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.24 pp, and today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.38% (Trading Economics) gives +2.23 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.33% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.28 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 37.6% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (24.5x against 17.8x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside.

France remains the region's main risk. The CAC 40 at 16.6x has an earnings yield of 6.02% (1÷16.61), 1.08 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.94%; the DAX at 18.2x yields 5.50%, 2.12 pp over the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 16.6x yields 6.03%, 0.70 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.33%. French 10-year yields rose 2 bp, in line with German ones, leaving the spread over the Bund unchanged at 156 bp. The National Assembly's vote on the revenue part of the 2027 budget is set for 3 November (as cited in the 27 Oct briefing). A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so their earnings in euros still move with the currency.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E is 16.8x (earnings yield 5.97%), 3.14 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 2.83% (Trading Economics). The Bank of Japan announces its decision on 30 October and is expected to hold its rate at 1.25% (Nikkei, 22 Oct, via web search), with officials possibly signalling a rise in December (Trading Economics). The yen weakened 0.24% against the dollar to 158.29 and about 0.3% against the euro, so a euro investor in an unhedged Japan fund kept about 0.8% of the index's 1.08% gain.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 13.6x, the cheapest index in the table and a 44.5% discount to the S&P 500. Today showed again how much the index depends on a few Asian memory-chip makers: SK hynix's results lifted the Kospi 6.63% in one session, and Samsung Electronics reports on 29 October (Digital Today, as cited in the 27 Oct briefing). A Fed rise in December, which futures priced at 84% before today's decision, would tend to draw money out of emerging markets and raise the cost of their dollar debts, whatever the investor's home currency. Brazil shows the political side of the risk: its main index has lost about 17% in three sessions since the 25 October election.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield near 5%, two Fed officials already voting for a rise, and the largest technology companies reporting this week. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; French 10-year yields of 4.94%, 156 bp over Germany, with the budget not yet passed. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 16.8x, with a BOJ decision on 30 October. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with returns concentrated in Korean chip makers and Brazil repricing its election result.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The Fed held rates with headline inflation at 3.72% in September, up from 3.35% in August, while payrolls grew by only 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%. The two dissents show that part of the committee weighs the inflation figure more heavily than the slowing jobs figures; the statement's upgrade of growth to "strong" points the same way.

Other economic releases today (web search)

The Bank of Canada became the first of the week's central banks to raise rates, and it gave oil as the reason: it expects prices to stay higher for longer and said it may need to raise rates further, deciding one meeting at a time (Bank of Canada). In the UK, the Office for Budget Responsibility put the government's margin against its fiscal rules at £15 billion in 2029–30, down from £23.6 billion in March, a cut markets had largely expected, and lowered its 2027 growth forecast (MarketScreener; Trading Economics). In Australia, the trimmed mean, the measure of underlying inflation the Reserve Bank of Australia watches, rose 1.0% in the quarter, as forecast but faster than the central bank's own August projection of 0.8%; swaps moved from about 60% odds of a November rise before the release to near 90% after it (ABC News). Germany's GfK survey showed households' willingness to spend and their income expectations falling, on worries about inflation (Reuters via Investing.com).

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Fed held its range at 3.75–4.00% today, where its 15–16 September rise put it (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing). The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, its second rise this year after June's move to 2.25% (as cited in the 20 Oct briefing), and decides tomorrow, when it is expected to hold (Trading Economics). The BOJ raised its rate to 1.25% on 18 September (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing) and announces its decision on 30 October. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing) and meets next on 5 November.

Government Bond Yields

The USA row is the 28 Oct 2026 settled curve, and its day change is against the 27 Oct 2026 curve from the same feed. The European and Japanese day changes are Trading Economics' and round moves of 1 to 4 bp.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 28 Oct 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +38 bp, positive, 13 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold, +9 bp against 27 Oct. - 10Y-3M spread: +87 bp, positive, no recession signal, +10 bp against 27 Oct.

OAT-Bund Spread: 156 bp (10-year OAT 4.94% against Bund 3.38%, Trading Economics, 28 Oct 2026 intraday), unchanged from Tuesday's quotes.

The US curve steepened on 28 October: the 3-month bill yield fell 4 bp to 4.18% and the 2-year 3 bp to 4.67%, while the 5-year rose 3 bp to 4.85%, the 10-year 6 bp to 5.05% and the 30-year 7 bp to 5.37%, widening the 2-to-10 slope by 9 bp to 38 bp (US Treasury par curve). Markets did not expect a rise at this meeting, but higher oil prices kept longer-term inflation worries alive.

In Germany, short-dated yields rose most: Germany's 2-year rose about 5 bp to 3.11% and the 10-year 2 bp to 3.38%, while the 30-year was unchanged at 3.69%, ahead of an ECB decision expected to leave rates unchanged. France's 10-year rose 2 bp to 4.94%, keeping its premium over Germany at 156 bp, and Italy's 10-year, at 4.52%, is 114 bp over Germany. UK 10-year gilts fell about 2 bp to 5.33%, their lowest in over a month, after a budget that kept the fiscal rules and planned government bond sales in line with forecasts (Trading Economics). Japan's 10-year rose 4 bp to 2.83% as demand for safe government bonds eased with the rally in AI-related shares; prices of services that Japanese companies charge one another rose 3.7% in the year to September, the fastest rise since June 2024 (Trading Economics).

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 28 Oct 2026: 3M 4.18%, 6M 4.32%, 1Y 4.47%, 2Y 4.67%, 3Y 4.80%, 5Y 4.85%, 7Y 4.95%, 10Y 5.05%, 20Y 5.41%, 30Y 5.37%; 2-to-10 slope +38 bp. Prior curves: 28 Sep and 28 Aug 2026. The 3-month bill at 4.18% is +30.5 bp from the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%, more than the usual 25 bp.

The US curve rises from 4.18% at three months to 5.41% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year. Against 28 September the curve from two years out is lower, by 25 bp at two years and 19 bp at both ten and thirty years, so the 2-to-10 slope has widened from 32 bp to 38 bp; the 3-month bill's 30.5 bp gap over the Fed Funds midpoint is consistent with the December rise futures price.

Euro area AAA government curve, 27 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.54%, 1Y 2.88%, 2Y 3.02%, 5Y 3.11%, 10Y 3.37%, 20Y 3.64%, 30Y 3.60%; 2-to-10 slope +36 bp. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 28 Oct 2026), overlaid, differ from the plotted curve by at most 9 bp, at the 2Y (3.11% against 3.02%) and the 30Y (3.69% against 3.60%); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so only a gap well beyond that is a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.54% at three months to 3.64% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year. Against 25 September it is 24 bp lower at both two and ten years, so its 2-to-10 slope is unchanged at 36 bp.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 27 Oct 2026 vs 26 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 27 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

The extra yield on lower-rated US company bonds over Treasuries narrowed 12 bp to 318 bp on 27 October, the day the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.29%, and sits near the bottom of the normal 300–500 bp range; investment-grade spreads, at 88 bp, are near the bottom of their 80–150 bp range. Euro lower-rated bonds were almost unchanged at 362 bp. The VIX, the index of expected volatility in the S&P 500, closed at 17.52 on 27 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading, down from 18.39 on 26 October.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The US leg is dated 28 October and the euro leg 27 October. The 168 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 34 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.38% against 2.04%) and 134 bp of real-rate difference (2.67% against 1.33%), so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield rose 3 bp on 28 October to 2.67%.

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 134 bp on these figures is under that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.67% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 28 Oct 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Computed from the US Treasury par curve, 28 October.

Today's 6 bp rise at the 10-year cost a holder about 0.47%, or 1.1 months of coupon.

The 30-year Treasury pays 0.70 pp more than the 2-year for nearly eight times as much price movement per 10 bp. With two Fed officials already voting for a rise, the ECB and the Bank of Japan deciding in the next two days, and oil above $100, short maturities keep most of the income with far less exposure to a surprise.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 19:00–19:10 CET; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

Currencies were little changed around the Fed's decision. The ICE dollar index was flat at 102.31 after rising on 26 and 27 October, and the euro edged up 0.08% to $1.1140 the day before the ECB decision. The pound slipped 0.05% to $1.3301 on budget day, a muted reaction (MarketScreener). The yen weakened 0.24% to 158.29 per dollar, two days before the Bank of Japan's decision, and the Swiss franc 0.21% to 0.8300.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 28 Oct 2026 settlement vs 27 Oct 2026 settlement.

Every row shows the same contract as Tuesday's table, so the levels are comparable. Oil rose after falling on 26 and 27 October: the December WTI contract (CLZ26) settled at $102.78, 2.88% above Tuesday's settlement of $99.90, and the January Brent contract (BZF27) at $111.64, 2.04% above its $109.41 settlement. Most news reports quote the December Brent contract (BZZ26), which settled at $115.32, up 1.26% and $3.68 above January. The rise followed reports that the United States was preparing to renew strikes on Iran after the midterm elections, further Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and a Houthi claim, not confirmed by Saudi Arabia, to have struck the Ras Tanura refinery on 27 October (CNBC; The National; Boursorama), a day after Oman had said talks produced an outline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz (as cited in the 27 Oct briefing). UBS raised its oil forecasts and expects Brent to stay near $110 to the end of the year (The National). January Brent is 11.47% below the 52-week high of $126.10 set by an earlier contract (range $58.72 to $126.10), and December WTI 13.98% below its $119.48 high (range $54.98 to $119.48).

Gold fell 0.56% to $4,051.60, 27.47% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026; silver fell 1.55% to $53.666, 55.76% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same day. Copper rose 0.29% to $6.6715, slightly below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September, 2.32% below it. Natural gas rose 0.93% to $3.032, in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 28 October close): technology (XLK) led, up 0.80%, followed by financials (XLF, +0.45%), energy (XLE, +0.35%), industrials (XLI, +0.34%), health care (XLV, +0.30%) and materials (XLB, +0.15%). Utilities (XLU) were the weakest, down 0.84%, followed by real estate (XLRE, −0.73%), communication services (XLC, −0.42%), consumer staples (XLP, −0.36%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, −0.10%). Utilities and real estate, whose borrowing-heavy businesses and steady dividends compete with bond income, fell on a day the 10-year yield rose 6 bp to 5.05%.

• Memory chips: SK hynix's record quarter, with an operating margin of about 80% (Seoul Economic Daily), lifted Korean and Japanese chip shares: SK hynix +10.89%, Samsung Electronics +9.01%, Kioxia +13.76%. After the US close Microsoft said its capital spending would exceed $50 billion in the October–December quarter, and Alphabet that its spending would rise significantly in 2027; those plans for AI data centres are what these companies' sales depend on (SiliconANGLE; investingLive).
• Oil and central banks: with WTI back above $100, the Bank of Canada raised rates and cited oil, two Fed officials voted for a rise, and Australian swaps priced a November rise near 90% after the 28 October inflation figures.
• European results: company reports moved shares more than the indices: Stellantis about +15%, Deutsche Bank +3.6% by midday, while Adyen fell 11.8% and Symrise 12% by midday (Boursorama; XTB).
• Brazil: the Ibovespa fell 2.68% for a third session of losses since President Lula's re-election, and Santander fell 4.9% by midday partly on weaker profit in Brazil (InfoMoney; XTB).

Top Stories (Global)

• The Fed holds, with two votes for a rise. The Fed kept its range at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point rise; the statement called growth "strong" and dropped its line on the policy action supporting a return to 2% inflation (Yahoo Finance; CNBC). Futures priced 84% odds of a December rise beforehand (CME FedWatch via Yahoo Finance). At his press conference Chair Kevin Warsh said the committee will deliver price stability and announced that the Fed will set rates at seven of its eight meetings in 2027; traders put December odds at about 85% afterwards (investingLive; Axios).
• SK hynix's record quarter lifts Seoul. Third-quarter revenue of 104.6 trillion won and operating profit of 83.3 trillion won beat forecasts, with about 100 trillion won of shareholder returns planned for 2026; SK hynix rose 10.89% and the Kospi 6.63% to 6,012.44, its biggest gain since 31 July (SK hynix via Yahoo Finance; Seoul Economic Daily; Korea JoongAng Daily).
• The Bank of Canada raises rates. The overnight rate rose 25 bp to 2.50%, the first increase since July 2023, as the bank said its inflation outlook had worsened with oil expected to stay higher for longer (Bank of Canada; TD Economics).
• Alphabet falls, Microsoft rises after the close. Alphabet's Google Cloud revenue doubled to $30.7 billion, but total revenue of $127.6 billion fell slightly short of forecasts and spending exceeded operating cash flow by about $9 billion in the quarter; it kept its 2026 capital spending guidance at $195 billion to $205 billion, said spending would rise significantly in 2027, and its shares fell about 10% in extended trading. Microsoft's revenue rose 19% to $92.3 billion, above forecasts, with its Azure cloud business up 48%, and its shares rose about 4% (Alphabet; investingLive; Investing.com; SiliconANGLE).
• Oil climbs on Iran and Houthi reports. December WTI settled 2.88% higher at $102.78 on reports that the US was preparing to renew strikes on Iran after the midterms and on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia (CNBC; The National).
• A calm UK budget. Chancellor John Healey kept the fiscal rules; the margin against them was cut to £15 billion in 2029–30, as expected, and 10-year gilt yields eased to about 5.33% (MarketScreener; Trading Economics).
• European results move shares. Stellantis rose about 15% after confirming its targets, Deutsche Bank about 3.6% after raising its revenue forecast, while Adyen fell 11.8% after cutting its margin target and Symrise 12% on a profit warning, the last three by midday (Boursorama; XTB).
• Australian inflation firms. Underlying inflation rose 1.0% in the third quarter, above the central bank's August forecast, and swaps priced near 90% odds of a November rate rise after the 28 October inflation figures (ABC News).

Looking Ahead

• Thursday 29 October: the ECB's decision, expected to leave rates unchanged (Trading Economics); the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP, forecast at 3.0% to 3.2% annualised after 2.2% in the second quarter, and September's PCE inflation, with the core measure expected at 3.1% after 3.0% (FXStreet; Marc to Market, as cited in the 26 Oct briefing); Samsung Electronics' results (Digital Today, as cited in the 27 Oct briefing); Amazon and Intel report (Marc to Market, as cited in the 26 Oct briefing).
• Friday 30 October: the Bank of Japan's decision and its quarterly outlook report; the first estimate of euro-area third-quarter GDP, expected at 0.2% after 0.6% in the second quarter, and Germany's October flash inflation (FXStreet; Saxo).
• Further out: Apple reports on 2 November (as cited in the 27 Oct briefing); US midterm elections on 3 November, the same day as the French National Assembly's vote on the 2027 budget's revenue measures; the euro-area flash inflation estimate for October on 4 November; the Bank of England meets on 5 November; Anthropic could begin marketing its listing as soon as the week of 9 November (Bloomberg, via Yahoo Finance, as cited in the 27 Oct briefing); the Bank of Canada's next decision on 9 December.

Market closures - France 1 Nov 2026 (All Saints' Day), a Sunday, so no trading day is lost. - Brazil 2 Nov 2026 (All Souls' Day). - Further out: Japan 3 Nov 2026 (Culture Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (28 Oct 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 27 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q3); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures and US sector funds at the 28 Oct close, and FX quoted at 19:10 CET, via Yahoo Finance; European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, Korea JoongAng Daily, Seoul Economic Daily, Tradingkey, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Bank of Canada, TD Economics, MarketScreener, ABC News, Boursorama, Zonebourse, XTB, InfoMoney, Reuters via Investing.com, The National, FXStreet, Saxo, investingLive, Axios, Alphabet, SiliconANGLE, Investing.com).