2026 10 08

Global Financial Briefing — Thursday, 8 October 2026

Figures reflect the 8 Oct close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 8 Oct close; the euro AAA curve is the ECB's latest, dated 7 Oct.

Market Overview

Oil jumped and shares fell across Asia and Europe and in US technology; the Dow and Brazil's Ibovespa ended higher. December Brent rose as much as 5.7% to $105.91 a barrel after The Atlantic reported that the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare options for striking Iran before the 3 November US midterm elections, on top of attacks on nine tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the past week and Tropical Storm Isaias, which has shut about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output (Trading Economics). Oil gave back part of the gain after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the midterms (Yahoo Finance), and December Brent settled at $104.28, up 4.07% on Wednesday's settlement. US shares fell further after the Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualised revenue was close to $50 billion at the end of September, about $20 billion less than the figure widely reported (Crypto Briefing, citing the FT), which took the Nasdaq to its low of the session (Yahoo Finance). Oracle fell more than 5% and the chipmakers Nvidia and AMD about 3% and 4% (Investing.com). The S&P 500 closed down 0.47% at 7,765.36 and the Nasdaq 100 down 1.39%, while the Dow, which holds less technology, edged up 0.10% (Investing.com). Energy (XLE, +2.97%) and consumer staples (XLP, +2.11%) were the two strongest of the eleven US sector funds and technology (XLK, −1.79%) the weakest.

Treasury yields of two years and longer fell despite the oil price: the 10-year settled at 5.22%, down 6 bp, and the 30-year at 5.60%, down 7 bp (US Treasury par curve, 8 Oct), from 5.28% and 5.67% on Wednesday, when both touched their highest levels since 2002 during the session. Fed Governor Waller suggested further rate rises may be needed to bring inflation back to 2%, while leaving room on how fast (Yahoo Finance). After the minutes of the Fed's 15–16 September meeting, at which it raised its target range by 25 bp to 3.75–4.00%, markets put about an 80% chance on another rise by December and about 19% on one at the 27–28 October meeting (Investing.com). US initial jobless claims were 197,000 in the week to 3 October, slightly below the 200,000 expected (Yahoo Finance).

Europe fell for a second day after Wednesday's 1.00% drop in the STOXX 600: the STOXX 600 lost 0.75%, the DAX 1.18% to its lowest in almost two months (Trading Economics), Switzerland's SMI 1.24% and the CAC 40 0.51%, while the FTSE 100, helped by its oil producers, slipped only 0.16%. Euro-area banks fell 2.5% to 3.1% (UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING, Santander) on worry that government bond yields are drifting apart across the euro area (Trading Economics), although the spreads were little changed on the day (France +1 bp and Italy −3 bp over Germany). Bond yields themselves were steady: the German 10-year fell 2 bp to 3.46%, the French 10-year was 4.89% and the Italian fell 4 bp to 4.60% (Trading Economics), leaving France paying 143 bp more than Germany for ten-year money. The ECB published its account of the 9–10 September meeting, at which it raised its deposit rate to 2.50% from 2.25%: members found no material sign of inflation spreading from energy into wages and other prices, and kept to deciding meeting by meeting (ECB). Reuters read the account as damping bets on an early further rise (Investing.com). In Asia, the Kospi fell 2.62%, led by SK Square and Hanwha Aerospace, while Samsung Electronics slipped after its record profit forecast fell slightly short of the 108.67 trillion won analysts expected (Investing.com, citing Bloomberg). Mainland Chinese markets reopened after the National Day holiday with the Shanghai Composite down 0.79% on its 30 September close.

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 8 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 1.11% above its 50-day average and 7.24% above its 200-day average; the Nasdaq 100 is 3.63% above its 50-day average. The Dow is 2.70% below its 50-day average and 6.42% below its 52-week high of 54,744.33. PepsiCo beat third-quarter earnings expectations ($2.34 a share against $2.29) but cut its forecast for growth in core earnings per share this year to 2.5–3% from 5–7%, and Palantir rose about 3% after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to buy (Yahoo Finance). Brazil's Ibovespa rose 0.94% and is 1.62% below its 52-week high of 209,606.

Europe

European data reflects today's close (8 Oct).

The Euro STOXX 50, which holds only the largest euro-area companies, fell 0.87% to 6,126.73. In Germany, Volkswagen fell 4.5% and Infineon 3.4%; in Paris, BNP Paribas lost 2.4% and Safran 2.7% while TotalEnergies rose 2.9%; Argenx fell more than 15% after stopping a drug study (Trading Economics). In Switzerland, Roche fell 2.03% while Nestlé rose 0.58% (Trading Economics). The CAC 40 is 6.96% below its 50-day average and 3.0% above the bottom of its 52-week range (7,505.27 to 8,755.03). The DAX is 3.95% below its 50-day average and now just under its 200-day average (−0.18%), and the STOXX 600 is 3.27% below its 50-day average and 0.11% above its 200-day average.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects today's close (8 Oct).

Shanghai Comp: the day change is against the 30 Sep 2026 close; mainland markets were shut for National Day from 1 to 7 October and today was their first session since. The Hang Seng and ASX 200 day changes are against their 7 Oct closes.

Besides Samsung's slightly disappointing forecast, the Kospi's fall was led by SK Square (−7.18%), Hanwha Aerospace (−7.30%) and Doosan Enerbility (−6.21%), with high US yields and Brent near $100 cited as the pressure (Trading Economics). In Hong Kong the technology index fell 2.89%, about double the Hang Seng's fall, and Japan's broader Topix fell 1.51% (Investing.com). The Nikkei is still 4.90% above its 50-day average; the Hang Seng is 5.68% below its own and 5.6% above its 52-week low of 22,518.

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa reflect the 8 Oct New York close. The Nifty's day change is against its 7 Oct close of 22,603.05.

EEM's 1.89% fall in New York matches what its largest Asian markets did today (Korea −2.62%, Hong Kong −1.43%, India −1.64%, mainland China −0.79% over its holiday), so it is not New York repricing emerging markets on US news alone. India's Sensex fell 1.44% and the Nifty 1.64%, in line with the region; the Nifty is now 0.23% above its 52-week low of 22,179.90 and 6.57% below its 50-day average. The South Africa fund rose 0.59% and is 4.0% above its 52-week low.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 106); shown for reference only.

Nikkei 225: Yahoo Finance returned a trailing P/E of 0.23x for 1321.T again today, as it has every day since 5 October; the reading is a data error rather than a valuation (22.7x on 2 October). The row is withheld, and so are its averages, which include the bad readings.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 25.0x gives an earnings yield of 4.00% (1÷25.01). Against the 10-year Treasury at 5.22% (US Treasury par curve, 8 Oct) the earnings yield gap is −1.22 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more in income than the index's earnings amount to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.87% (US Treasury real curve, 8 Oct) the gap is +1.13 pp; the 2.35 pp between the two is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 30.5x has an earnings yield of 3.28%, 1.94 pp below the 10-year Treasury. Today showed where that index is exposed: a single report on how much revenue one unlisted company, OpenAI, is bringing in was enough to take the Nasdaq 100 to its low of the day, down 1.39% at the close, because much of the index's earnings growth is expected to come from companies selling chips, cloud capacity and financing to such firms.

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 17.2x gives an earnings yield of 5.80% (1÷17.23); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.54% (ECB YC API, 7 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.27 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.46% (Trading Economics) it is +2.34 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.50% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.30 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 45.2% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (25.0x against 17.2x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside. The CAC 40 at 15.7x has an earnings yield of 6.35% (1÷15.74), 1.46 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.89%. The DAX at 17.6x yields 5.69%, 2.23 pp above the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 14.9x yields 6.73%, 1.30 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.43%. The ECB's account of its September meeting showed that markets were then pricing 84 bp of further rises by the end of 2027 while the analysts it surveys expected the deposit rate to stay at 2.50% (ECB); Trading Economics reports that markets now fully price only one further rise. Bank shares are sensitive to the gap between French or Italian and German yields because banks hold large amounts of their own governments' bonds, so wider French or Italian spreads over Germany weigh on their balance sheets. A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so the euro's level against the dollar still feeds into their earnings.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E has been unusable since 5 October (see the note under the valuation table); on 2 October it was 22.7x, close to the S&P 500's level. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September from 1.00%, set in June (Free Press Journal). Board member Sato, who voted against the September rise, now backs raising rates gradually in several steps, and the 10-year JGB eased 3 bp to 3.09%, below its recent highest level in about 30 years (Trading Economics). The yen rose 0.14% against the dollar to 157.82. For a euro investor an unhedged Japan fund carries the yen's moves in full; with the euro little changed against the dollar today, the yen also gained slightly against the euro.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 14.1x, the cheapest of the indices in the table with a usable reading and a 43.8% discount to the S&P 500. Today's fall did not come from the dollar, which was flat against the six currencies in the ICE index; it came from oil and from Asian technology shares, Korea in particular. Higher oil prices hurt the large emerging-market importers by raising their import bill and weakening their currencies; India fell in line with the rest of Asia today, and the Nifty is close to its 52-week low. For a euro holder the currency side matters less than usual today because the euro and the dollar barely moved against each other.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, 10-year and 30-year yields near their highest since 2002, and today's reminder of how much of the Nasdaq 100's value rests on spending by a few AI companies. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures, but bank shares falling on worry about the gap between French, Italian and German yields, although it barely moved on the day, higher oil, and the DAX now at its 200-day average. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E close to the US level when last reliably measured; BOJ rate rises, Japanese fiscal policy and the yen are the main risks. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with higher oil (which hurts importers such as India and Korea), the Hormuz standoff and Brazil's 25 October runoff as the near-term risks.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The labour figures are the September release of 2 October; the CPI figures are August's, and September's are due on 14 October (BLS). Jobless claims at 197,000 do not show layoffs rising, which fits payrolls growing slowly (29,000 in September) rather than shrinking. With oil up more than 3% today, the September CPI is where the Fed's case for a further rise, which Waller kept open today, will be tested.

Other economic releases today (web search)

Germany's surplus narrowed because exports fell while imports rose; the 6.3% drop in exports to the US, against higher shipments to China and the UK, is the part to watch for German manufacturers (Trading Economics). Neither release moved markets on a day set by oil and the OpenAI report.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

Government Bond Yields

The USA day change is against the 7 Oct 2026 curve from the same feed; the Euro area AAA row is the ECB's AAA euro-area curve, with its day change against the 6 Oct 2026 curve. The other rows are 8 Oct quotes, with day changes as Trading Economics reports them.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 8 Oct 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +47 bp, positive, 22 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold, −4 bp on the day. - 10Y-3M spread: +99 bp, positive, no recession signal, −7 bp on the day.

OAT-Bund Spread: 143 bp (10-year OAT 4.89% against Bund 3.46%, Trading Economics, 8 Oct 2026 intraday), against 142 bp on Wednesday's quotes from the same source.

The US curve flattened today, reversing Wednesday's steepening: yields up to one year rose 1 to 2 bp while the 10-year fell 6 bp and the 20- and 30-year 7 bp each (see the chart note below). Positive spreads of this size are what investors normally demand for lending for longer; they do not signal an expected recession. In Europe 10-year yields fell slightly across the board, by 4 bp in Italy and 2 bp in Germany, and France's extra cost over Germany was 143 bp, against 142 bp on Wednesday; Italy now pays 114 bp over Germany. The German 2-year rose 2 bp to 3.06% while the 10-year fell 2 bp, the same short-up, long-down pattern as in the UK, where the 2-year gilt rose 4 bp to 4.75% and the 10-year eased 1 bp to 5.43%; UK markets still expect more than a percentage point of Bank of England rises by the end of 2027 (Trading Economics). The 10-year gilt remains the highest 10-year yield in the table.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 8 Oct 2026: 3M 4.23%, 6M 4.30%, 1Y 4.44%, 2Y 4.75%, 3Y 4.85%, 5Y 4.99%, 7Y 5.11%, 10Y 5.22%, 20Y 5.64%, 30Y 5.60%; 2-to-10 slope +47 bp. Day change against the 7 Oct 2026 curve: 3M +1 bp, 6M +2 bp, 1Y +2 bp, 2Y −2 bp, 3Y −2 bp, 5Y −4 bp, 7Y −4 bp, 10Y −6 bp, 20Y −7 bp, 30Y −7 bp. Prior curves: 8 Sep and 7 Aug 2026. The 3-month bill at 4.23% is 35.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%, more than the usual 25 bp, consistent with markets still allowing for a further rate rise by December.

The US curve rises from 4.23% at three months to 5.64% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year. Since 8 September every maturity is higher, most at five to ten years (+42 bp to +43 bp) and least at the short end (+29 bp at three months and one year, +30 bp at six months), so the curve has steepened over the month.

Euro area AAA government curve, 7 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.52%, 1Y 2.85%, 2Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.18%, 10Y 3.54%, 20Y 3.85%, 30Y 3.80%; 2-to-10 slope +54 bp. Prior curves: 7 Sep and 7 Aug 2026. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 8 Oct 2026), shown as amber markers, differ from the plotted 7 Oct curve by at most 8 bp, at the 10-year (3.46% against 3.54%), and by 6 bp at the 2-year (3.06% against 3.00%). The curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run German bonds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so these gaps are mostly the difference between the two measures rather than a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.52% at three months to 3.85% at 20 years, with the 30-year 5 bp below the 20-year. Since 7 September it has risen most at five and ten years (+13 bp and +15 bp), by 7 to 9 bp up to two years and by only 2 bp at 30 years.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 7 Oct 2026 vs 6 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 7 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

On 7 October, the day long-term Treasury yields touched their highest since 2002 and European shares fell 1%, the extra yield on US high-yield bonds over Treasuries rose 6 bp to 309 bp and on euro high-yield bonds 7 bp to 322 bp, with US high yield still in the lower half of its normal 300–500 bp range. US investment-grade spreads, at 82 bp, are at the bottom of their normal 80–150 bp range. The VIX closed at 15.08 on 7 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The US leg is dated 8 October and the euro leg 7 October, the latest euro AAA curve published. The 168 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 31 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.35% against 2.04%) and 137 bp of real-rate difference (2.87% against 1.50%), figures rounded, so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield fell 5 bp on 8 October to 2.87% (against 2.92% on 7 October). The ECB's own account notes that the rise in long-term euro yields has come mainly from the extra return investors demand for holding long-term bonds, after allowing for inflation (ECB).

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 137 bp of 8 October is a little below that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.87% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 8 Oct 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Source: US Treasury par curve, 8 October.

The 10-year's 6 bp fall on 8 October gained a holder about 0.46%, about a month of coupon, and the 30-year's 7 bp about 1.0%, about two months of coupon. The 30-year pays 0.85 pp more than the 2-year for more than seven times as much loss per 10 bp; with oil adding to inflation worries and a September CPI still to come, short maturities keep most of the income for far less exposure.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 19:10 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

Currencies barely moved. The dollar was flat against the six currencies in the ICE index and the euro edged up 0.06% to $1.1206 after Wednesday's 0.62% fall; the ECB account did not change its direction. The yen gained 0.14% against the dollar and the Swiss franc 0.05%.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 8 Oct 2026 settlement vs 7 Oct 2026 settlement.

The December Brent contract (BZZ26) settled at $104.28, 4.07% above Wednesday's settlement of $100.20, and the November WTI contract (CLX26) at $91.49, up 3.64%. Brent had reached more than $105 earlier, its highest in nearly a month (Trading Economics), before Trump's statement that the US would not attack Iran before the midterms trimmed the gain (Yahoo Finance). Three supply threats came together: the report of US strike planning against Iran, more attacks on shipping in the Gulf as the Houthis stepped up strikes on Saudi Arabia, and Tropical Storm Isaias, which has shut about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output and 16% of its natural gas output as Chevron and Shell evacuate platforms (Trading Economics). About 9.5 million barrels a day left Hormuz in the week to Tuesday, about 30% below normal before the war with Iran (Bloomberg). Both crudes are in the upper half of their 52-week ranges ($58.72 to $126.10 for Brent, $54.98 to $119.48 for WTI). December Brent settled $12.79 above November WTI; the two are different delivery months, so part of that gap is the difference between months rather than between the two crudes. The November WTI contract expires on 20 October.

Gold settled at $4,157.00, up 0.39% and 25.6% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026; silver at $59.424 was down 1.44% and 51.0% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same day. Copper fell 1.22% to $6.5685, slightly below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September. Natural gas fell 1.09% to $3.168 despite the storm's shut-ins, and stays near the bottom of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 8 Oct close): eight of the eleven rose and three fell. Energy (XLE) +2.97% and consumer staples (XLP) +2.11% led, followed by financials (XLF) +0.89%, communication services (XLC) +0.73%, real estate (XLRE) +0.69%, materials (XLB) +0.59%, industrials (XLI) +0.33% and consumer discretionary (XLY) +0.31%. Technology (XLK) −1.79% fell most, followed by health care (XLV) −0.39% and utilities (XLU) −0.19%. Energy rose with crude, though by less than Brent's 4.07%. The same pattern ran through Europe, with TotalEnergies (+2.9%) and Shell (+3.6%) up and Roche and Novartis down (Trading Economics).

• Oil and Iran: Brent rose above $105 before Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms; tanker attacks around Hormuz and a storm in the Gulf of Mexico are both cutting supply (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg).
• Artificial intelligence revenue: the FT's report that OpenAI's annualised revenue is about $50 billion rather than the $70 billion widely reported, a gap it put down to different ways of counting revenue (Crypto Briefing, citing the FT), sent technology shares lower; in Korea, Samsung's forecast of a 107.4 trillion won quarterly operating profit, driven by AI demand for memory chips, still fell short of expectations (Investing.com).
• European banks and government bonds: UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING and Santander fell 2.5% to 3.1% on worry that euro-area government bond yields are moving apart (Trading Economics), although the spreads barely moved on the day, with France paying 143 bp over Germany for ten years.
• Central banks: the ECB's September account gave no sign of hurry to raise rates further, while Fed Governor Waller kept a further US rise in view (ECB, Yahoo Finance).

Top Stories (Global)

• Oil jumps on Iran strike planning report. December Brent rose as much as 5.7% to $105.91 after The Atlantic reported that the White House asked for options to strike Iran before the midterms, and settled at $104.28, up 4.07%, after Trump said no attack would come before the vote (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance).
• OpenAI revenue below reported figures. The FT reported annualised revenue near $50 billion at the end of September, about $20 billion below the widely reported figure (Crypto Briefing, citing the FT); the Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.39%, with Oracle down more than 5% (Investing.com).
• Samsung's record profit forecast misses estimates. Third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, up 782.5% on a year earlier, against 108.67 trillion expected (Investing.com); the Kospi fell 2.62%.
• ECB account shows no rush for a further rise. Members found no material spread of energy prices into wages and other prices and kept a meeting-by-meeting approach after the September rise to 2.50% (ECB, Investing.com).
• European shares extend Wednesday's fall, led by banks. The DAX fell 1.18% to its lowest in almost two months and euro-area banks lost 2.5% to 3.1% (Trading Economics).
• China reopens lower. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.79% in its first session since 30 September; the Hang Seng fell 1.43% and its technology index 2.89% (Investing.com).
• PepsiCo beats but cuts its outlook. Quarterly earnings of $2.34 a share against $2.29 expected, but growth in core earnings per share this year now forecast at 2.5–3%, down from 5–7% (Yahoo Finance).

Looking Ahead

• Friday 9 October: Canadian September jobs report and the University of Michigan's preliminary October consumer sentiment (Newsquawk, via the 6 Oct briefing); Korea closed.
• Monday 12 October: US Columbus Day (bond market closed, stock exchanges open); Japan, Canada and Brazil closed.
• Later this month: US September CPI on 14 October (BLS); Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October; the Fed meets on 27–28 October and the Bank of Japan later in the month; US third-quarter earnings season gets under way. US midterm elections on 3 November; Spain votes on 29 November.

Market closures - Korea, Friday 9 Oct 2026: Hangul Day. - Monday 12 Oct 2026: Brazil (Nossa Senhora Aparecida); Canada (Thanksgiving); Japan (Sports Day); United States (Columbus Day: bond market closed, stock exchanges open). - Indian market closures are not listed.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (8 Oct 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 7 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q3); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity settlements and sector funds via Yahoo Finance (8 Oct closes), FX via Yahoo Finance (as of 19:10 CEST); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, ECB, Bloomberg, Crypto Briefing, Free Press Journal, Newsquawk via the 6 Oct briefing).