2026 10 09

Global Financial Briefing — Friday, 9 October 2026

Figures reflect the 9 Oct close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 9 Oct close; the euro AAA curve is the ECB's latest, dated 8 Oct.

Market Overview

Shares in Hong Kong and most of Europe (the STOXX 600, CAC 40 and FTSE 100) gained more than they had lost on Thursday, and New York rose, as two of the reports behind Thursday's selling were partly reversed. On Iran, President Trump's statement on Thursday evening that the US would not attack before the 3 November midterm elections held through the day, and December Brent settled little changed at $104.72 a barrel (+0.42%) even though Hurricane Isaias had shut about 1.3 million barrels a day, roughly 63% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output, by Thursday (BSEE, via CNBC). On artificial intelligence, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects its annualised revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion by the end of the year, from about $50 billion at the end of September; Thursday's Financial Times report of the $50 billion figure had sent technology shares lower. Chipmakers including Broadcom, Micron, Marvell, AMD and Lam Research rose more than 2% before the US open (Trading Economics). The S&P 500 closed up 0.59% at 7,811.54, 0.42% below its record of 7,844.52; the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.51% and the Dow 0.83%. Apple fell 2.3% in early trading after reports that it has cut orders for iPhone 18 Pro components by 15% to 20% (Yahoo Finance), and Delta Air Lines fell after missing earnings forecasts on fuel costs (CNBC, Trading Economics).

Bond yields moved little and in different directions. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 bp to 5.24% and the 5-year 3 bp to 5.02%, with the 2-year up most, 5 bp to 4.80% (US Treasury par curve, 9 Oct). The University of Michigan's early-October survey of US consumers fell to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, against 47.6 expected and the lowest since May, with views of current conditions at a record low; households expect 4.7% inflation over the next year (4.6% in September) and 3.5% over five years (3.4%) (Bloomberg, CNN, FXStreet). Higher expected inflation is what the Fed watches before deciding on a further rise at its 27–28 October meeting, which makes the September CPI on 14 October the next test. In Canada, employers cut 68,300 jobs in September after 41,700 in August, which has erased all the jobs added this year, and unemployment rose to 6.5% (Statistics Canada, BNN Bloomberg).

Europe rose about 1% after the STOXX 600 had touched a four-month low (Trading Economics): the STOXX 600 gained 0.97%, the DAX 1.13%, the SMI 1.10%, the FTSE 100 1.06% and the CAC 40 0.95%. Telecoms were the exception: Deutsche Telekom fell 7%, on course for its worst day in more than three years, after SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide block of US mobile spectrum for its Starlink phone service, a threat to T-Mobile US, in which Deutsche Telekom holds 54% (Reuters, via Investing.com). Euro-area bond yields eased: the German 10-year was 3.48% (−1 bp), the French 4.87% (−2 bp) and the Italian 4.57% (−4 bp), so France's extra cost over Germany for ten-year money narrowed to 139 bp from 143 bp on Thursday's quotes (Trading Economics). On 9 October markets priced the ECB deposit rate at 2.72% by December, most of one further 25 bp rise from 2.50% (Trading Economics). In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.79%, led by Xiaomi (+9.7%), while the Nikkei was flat and Korea was closed for Hangul Day. Japan's 10-year yield fell 7 bp to 3.02%, a two-week low (Trading Economics).

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 9 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 1.59% above its 50-day average and 7.81% above its 200-day average, and has gained 1.15% since its 2 October close. The Nasdaq 100 is 3.92% above its 50-day average and 1.52% below its 52-week high. The Dow remains 1.88% below its 50-day average and 5.64% below its 52-week high of 54,744.33. Brazil's Ibovespa rose 1.38% and is 0.31% below its 52-week high of 209,713.45, 15.34% above its 50-day average.

Europe

European data reflects today's close (9 Oct).

The Euro STOXX 50, which holds only the largest euro-area companies, rose 0.76% to 6,173.37. The OpenAI projection and Trump's statement on Iran lifted the market, and analysts' expected growth in third-quarter earnings for European companies has risen to 21% from 19.4% (Trading Economics). Telecoms fell on the SpaceX deal: Deutsche Telekom −7%, Vodafone −3.1%, Orange −2.6%, Telefónica −2.5%, KPN −2.1% and BT −1.4% (Reuters, via Investing.com). In Paris, Hermès rose 2.1%, Schneider Electric 1.4%, L'Oréal 1.3% and Safran 1.2% (Trading Economics). Over the week the STOXX 600 is almost unchanged (+0.03% against its 2 October close), while the CAC 40 is down 1.19% and the DAX 0.57%; the FTSE 100 is up 0.86%. The CAC 40 is 5.90% below its 50-day average, 5.20% below its 200-day average and 3.97% above the bottom of its 52-week range (7,505.27 to 8,755.03). The DAX is back 0.94% above its 200-day average and the STOXX 600 1.04% above its own.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects today's close (9 Oct).

† Kospi: 9 Oct 2026 is Hangul Day, market closed today; the level is the 8 Oct close.

The Hang Seng ended a two-session fall as investors bought back stocks that had dropped: Xiaomi rose 9.7%, its largest daily gain since 8 July, Kuaishou 5.5%, Tencent 3.3% and AIA 2.9% (Trading Economics). It remains 3.84% below its 50-day average and 7.52% above its 52-week low of 22,518. The Nikkei closed flat and stays 4.74% above its 50-day average; the Shanghai Composite is 1.94% above its 52-week low of 3,741.11.

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa (EZA) are the 9 Oct New York close; the Nifty is today's close (9 Oct).

EEM's 1.06% rise in New York points the same way as the Asian markets that closed before New York opened (Hong Kong +1.79%, India +1.30%, mainland China +0.05%), with Korea shut for the holiday. The Nifty recovered part of Thursday's 1.64% fall but is still 1.54% above its 52-week low of 22,179.90 and 5.22% below its 50-day average. The South Africa fund rose 1.82% and is 5.86% above its 52-week low.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 107); shown for reference only.

Three readings changed by more than their index today, which means Yahoo changed the earnings figure behind them rather than the price; none of the three could be checked against the index provider. FTSE 100 (ISF.L): 16.3x against 14.9x on 8 October, while the FTSE rose 1.06%. CAC 40 (CAC.PA): 16.4x against 15.7x, while the CAC rose 0.95%. Nikkei 225 (1321.T): 18.1x, the first usable reading since 2 October (22.7x), after four days of 0.23x readings that were data errors; its averages are withheld because they include those errors (n = 106).

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 25.2x gives an earnings yield of 3.98% (1÷25.16). Against the 10-year Treasury at 5.24% (US Treasury par curve, 9 Oct) the earnings yield gap is −1.26 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more in income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.91% (US Treasury real curve, 9 Oct) the gap is +1.07 pp; the 2.33 pp between the two is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 30.6x has an earnings yield of 3.27%, 1.97 pp below the 10-year Treasury. Two days have shown how much of that index's price rests on a single unlisted customer: the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39% on Thursday on a report that OpenAI's revenue was about $50 billion a year, and chipmakers recovered today on OpenAI's own projection of $70 billion by December, because the chip, cloud and financing companies in the index expect much of their growth from such firms. Higher consumer inflation expectations in today's Michigan survey keep a further Fed rise in view, which matters for an index priced at 25x earnings while the 10-year pays 5.24%.

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 17.5x gives an earnings yield of 5.72% (1÷17.47); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.52% (ECB YC API, 8 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.21 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.48% (Trading Economics) it is +2.25 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.48% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.24 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 44.0% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (25.2x against 17.5x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside. The CAC 40 at 16.4x has an earnings yield of 6.09% (1÷16.42), 1.22 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.87%. The DAX at 17.8x yields 5.63%, 2.15 pp above the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 16.3x yields 6.12%, 0.67 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.45%; the FTSE and CAC figures rest on today's changed earnings data (see the note under the table). Today's telecom falls show a risk that sits outside Europe: Deutsche Telekom's value depends heavily on its 54% stake in T-Mobile US, so competition in the US market reaches German shareholders directly. A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so the euro's level against the dollar still feeds into their earnings.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E is back to a usable reading at 18.1x, an earnings yield of 5.54%, but the reading is about 21% below the 22.7x of 2 October at a similar index level, so treat it with caution until it holds for several days. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September from 1.00%, set in June (Free Press Journal, via the 8 Oct briefing), and a board member has backed further rises in several gradual steps (Trading Economics). The 10-year JGB fell 7 bp to 3.02%, a two-week low, following Thursday's 6 bp fall in the US 10-year yield (Trading Economics). The yen weakened 0.34% against the dollar to 158.33 and about 0.1% against the euro, so an unhedged Japan fund lost slightly on the currency for a euro investor today.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 14.2x, the cheapest of the indices in the table and a 43.5% discount to the S&P 500. The dollar rose 0.16% against the six currencies in the ICE index today. A stronger dollar makes dollar debts dearer for emerging-market borrowers and tends to draw money out of their markets; for a euro holder the conversion effect is partly offset because the euro fell against the dollar too (−0.21%), but the economic effect on local share prices applies whatever the investor's currency. Oil above $100 remains the larger near-term pressure on importers such as India and Korea.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield above 5.2%, rising household inflation expectations and an index whose largest companies swing on reports about a few AI customers. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures, a P/E well below the US, and narrower French and Italian spreads today; against that, oil above $100 and the CAC 40 still below both its 50- and 200-day averages. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E reading that has only just come back and needs confirming; BOJ rate rises and the yen at 158 per dollar are the main risks. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with oil, the dollar and Brazil's 25 October runoff as the near-term risks.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The labour figures are the September release of 2 October; the CPI figures are August's. September's CPI is due on Wednesday 14 October, with headline inflation forecast at about 3.6% against 3.4% in August as published (Newsquawk, Reuters via Investing.com). Today's Michigan survey points the same way: households' one-year inflation expectation rose to 4.7%.

Other economic releases today (web search)

The Michigan index is a survey of how households judge their finances and the economy, not a measure of spending; its weight today is in the inflation answers, because the Fed reads rising expectations as a sign that higher prices may persist. Canada's losses were concentrated in the public sector, in health care, social assistance and education, as cuts to international student permits took effect, and young people lost 48,000 jobs (BNN Bloomberg, HR Reporter); no consensus figure was available. Neither release moved markets much on a day set by oil and the OpenAI projection.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

Government Bond Yields

The USA day change is against the 8 Oct 2026 curve from the same feed; the Euro area AAA row's day change is against the 7 Oct 2026 curve. The other rows are 9 Oct quotes, with day changes as Trading Economics reports them.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 9 Oct 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +44 bp, positive, 19 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold, −3 bp on 9 Oct. - 10Y-3M spread: +99 bp, positive, no recession signal, unchanged on 9 Oct.

OAT-Bund Spread: 139 bp (10-year OAT 4.87% against Bund 3.48%, Trading Economics, 9 Oct 2026 intraday), against 143 bp on Thursday's quotes from the same source.

Positive spreads of this size are what investors normally demand for lending for longer; they do not signal an expected recession. Euro-area spreads over Germany narrowed today: France's to 139 bp and Italy's to 109 bp, from 143 bp and 114 bp on Thursday's quotes, as Trump's statement on Iran eased the selling that had taken France's 10-year yield to its highest in more than two decades and Italy's to its highest in three years (Trading Economics). The UK went the other way: the 10-year gilt rose 2 bp to 5.45%, still the highest 10-year yield in the table. The Bank of England is the only one of the major central banks here that has not raised rates this year, and markets expect it to start in November (Trading Economics). Japan's 10-year fell furthest, 7 bp to 3.02%.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 9 Oct 2026: 3M 4.25%, 6M 4.32%, 1Y 4.47%, 2Y 4.80%, 3Y 4.89%, 5Y 5.02%, 7Y 5.13%, 10Y 5.24%, 20Y 5.65%, 30Y 5.60%; 2-to-10 slope +44 bp. Day change against the 8 Oct 2026 curve: 3M +2 bp, 6M +2 bp, 1Y +3 bp, 2Y +5 bp, 3Y +4 bp, 5Y +3 bp, 7Y +2 bp, 10Y +2 bp, 20Y +1 bp, 30Y 0 bp. Prior curves: 9 Sep and 6 Aug 2026. The 3-month bill at 4.25% is 37.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%, more than the usual 25 bp, consistent with markets still allowing for a further rate rise by December.

The US curve rises from 4.25% at three months to 5.65% at 20 years, with the 30-year 5 bp below the 20-year. On 9 October it flattened, the 2-year up 5 bp and the 30-year unchanged. Since 9 September every maturity is higher, most at five to ten years (+41 to +42 bp) and least up to one year (+30 to +31 bp), so the curve has steepened over the month.

Euro area AAA government curve, 8 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.53%, 1Y 2.88%, 2Y 3.03%, 5Y 3.20%, 10Y 3.52%, 20Y 3.83%, 30Y 3.78%; 2-to-10 slope +49 bp. Prior curves: 8 Sep and 7 Aug 2026. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 9 Oct 2026), shown as amber markers, differ from the plotted 8 Oct curve by at most 7 bp, at the 2-year (3.10% against 3.03%) and the 30-year (3.85% against 3.78%), and by 4 bp at the 10-year (3.48% against 3.52%). The curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run German bonds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so these gaps are mostly the difference between the two measures rather than a day move.

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.53% at three months to 3.83% at 20 years, with the 30-year 5 bp below the 20-year. On 8 October it flattened, the 2-year up 4 bp and the 10- and 30-year down 2 bp each; since 8 September it has risen most at five and ten years (+14 bp each), by 10 to 11 bp up to two years and by only 2 bp at 30 years.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 8 Oct 2026 vs 7 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 8 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

On 8 October, the day oil jumped and US technology shares fell, the extra yield on US high-yield bonds over Treasuries rose 6 bp to 315 bp and on euro high-yield bonds 4 bp to 326 bp; US high yield is still in the lower half of its normal 300–500 bp range. US investment-grade spreads were unchanged at 82 bp, at the bottom of their normal 80–150 bp range. The VIX closed at 15.41 on 8 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The US leg is dated 9 October and the euro leg 8 October, the latest euro AAA curve published. The 172 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 29 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.33% against 2.04%) and 143 bp of real-rate difference (2.91% against 1.48%), so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield rose 4 bp on 9 October to 2.91% (against 2.87% on 8 October).

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 143 bp of 9 October is a little below that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.91% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 9 Oct 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Source: US Treasury par curve, 9 October.

The 10-year's 2 bp rise on 9 October cost a holder about 0.15%, about a third of a month's coupon. The 30-year pays 0.80 pp more than the 2-year for more than seven times as much loss per 10 bp; with household inflation expectations rising and the September CPI due on Wednesday, short maturities keep most of the income for far less exposure.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 18:22 CEST; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

The dollar firmed slightly, up 0.16% against the six currencies in the ICE index. The euro fell 0.21% to $1.1192 and the yen 0.34% to 158.33 per dollar; the pound and the Swiss franc barely moved.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 9 Oct 2026 settlement vs 8 Oct 2026 settlement.

The December Brent contract (BZZ26) settled at $104.72, 0.42% above Thursday's settlement of $104.28, and the November WTI contract (CLX26) at $91.85, up 0.39%; Brent gained 2.4% on the week, from $102.25 on 2 October. Two forces offset each other. Trump's statement that the US would not attack Iran before the midterms removed the immediate threat that had lifted Brent above $105 on Thursday, while supply losses grew: Isaias, now a hurricane, had shut about 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico oil output by Thursday, roughly 63% of the region's output against about 25% on Wednesday, along with 57% of its gas output (BSEE, via CNBC and BOE Report), and attacks on shipping around Hormuz continue (Trading Economics). Both crudes are in the upper half of their 52-week ranges ($58.72 to $126.10 for Brent, $54.98 to $119.48 for WTI). The November WTI contract expires on 20 October.

Gold rose 1.43% to $4,216.30, 24.5% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026; silver rose 2.73% to $61.048, 49.7% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same day. Copper rose 1.88% to $6.692, slightly below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September (2.02% below it). Natural gas rose 1.64% to $3.220 and stays in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827, even with more than half of Gulf gas output shut.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 9 Oct close): nine of the eleven rose, consumer staples only just, and two fell. Real estate (XLRE) +1.86% and health care (XLV) +1.58% led, followed by consumer discretionary (XLY) +1.02%, financials (XLF) +0.92%, utilities (XLU) +0.83%, technology (XLK) +0.51%, industrials (XLI) +0.50%, materials (XLB) +0.32% and consumer staples (XLP) +0.01%. Communication services (XLC) −1.51% and energy (XLE) −0.25% fell. Apple fell 2.3% early on the iPhone order cuts (Yahoo Finance). US telecom shares fell alongside Europe's after the SpaceX spectrum deal (Global Banking & Finance), and the communication services fund holds T-Mobile US, Verizon and AT&T.

• Artificial intelligence revenue: OpenAI told investors it expects annualised revenue of $70 billion or more by the end of 2026, from about $50 billion at the end of September, with 77% growth in the third quarter and 107% in its business segment (Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance). The figure turned Thursday's selling of chipmakers into buying.
• Satellite competition for telecoms: SpaceX agreed to buy up to 14 MHz of nationwide low-band (800 MHz) US spectrum from Grain Management, worth about $8 billion according to the Wall Street Journal, so that its Starlink service can sell mobile plans; one analyst quoted by Reuters said it would take years without a roaming partner before Starlink offered a competitive product (Reuters, via Investing.com).
• Fuel costs and airlines: Delta's adjusted earnings of $1.72 a share fell short of the $1.75 expected, its first miss in two years, as its adjusted fuel bill rose 62% from a year earlier; it cut its 2026 profit forecast (CNBC, Quartz).
• Oil supply: Hurricane Isaias and attacks on shipping around Hormuz are cutting supply even as the threat of a US strike on Iran recedes until after 3 November.

Top Stories (Global)

• OpenAI projects $70 billion of annualised revenue by year-end. The projection, given to investors raising new money, lifted chipmakers after Thursday's report of a $50 billion figure at the end of September had sent them down (Bloomberg, Trading Economics).
• SpaceX spectrum deal hits European telecoms. Deutsche Telekom fell 7%, on course for its worst day in more than three years, with Vodafone, Orange and Telefónica down 2.5% to 3.1% (Reuters, via Investing.com).
• Hurricane Isaias shuts about 63% of US Gulf oil output. About 1.3 million barrels a day were offline by Thursday; Brent held near $104 (BSEE, via CNBC).
• US consumer sentiment at its lowest since May. The Michigan index fell to 46.3 against 47.6 expected, and expected inflation over the next year rose to 4.7% (Bloomberg, CNN).
• Canada loses 68,300 jobs in September. Unemployment rose to 6.5% after a fall of 41,700 jobs in August, erasing this year's gains (Statistics Canada, BNN Bloomberg).
• Apple trims iPhone 18 Pro orders; Delta misses. Apple cut component orders by 15% to 20% after a price rise driven by memory-chip costs weighed on demand, and its shares fell 2.3% early; Delta missed earnings forecasts on fuel (Yahoo Finance, MacRumors, CNBC).
• Hong Kong rebounds. The Hang Seng rose 1.79% to 24,211, led by Xiaomi (+9.7%) and Tencent (+3.3%) (Trading Economics).

Looking Ahead

• Monday 12 October: US Columbus Day (bond market closed, stock exchanges open); Japan, Canada and Brazil closed.
• Tuesday 13 October: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report third-quarter results; China publishes September trade figures and consumer and producer prices (Newsquawk, Reuters via Investing.com).
• Wednesday 14 October: US September CPI, forecast at about 3.6% (3.4% in August); Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report (Newsquawk, Reuters via Investing.com).
• Later in the week: US retail sales, UK and Australian labour figures and the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's last meeting (Newsquawk).
• Later this month: Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October; the Fed meets on 27–28 October and the Bank of Japan later in the month. US midterm elections on 3 November.

Market closures - Monday 12 Oct 2026: Brazil (Nossa Senhora Aparecida); Canada (Thanksgiving); Japan (Sports Day); United States (Columbus Day: bond market closed, stock exchanges open). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (9 Oct 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 8 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q3); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity settlements and sector funds via Yahoo Finance (9 Oct closes), FX via Yahoo Finance (as of 18:22 CEST); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, CNN, FXStreet, Reuters via Investing.com, Statistics Canada, BNN Bloomberg, HR Reporter, BOE Report, MacRumors, Quartz, Global Banking & Finance, Newsquawk; BOJ rate via the 8 Oct briefing).