2026 11 02

Global Financial Briefing — Monday, 2 November 2026

Figures reflect the 2 Nov close wherever close data exists. FX quotes and the German, French, UK, Japanese and Italian bond yields are evening quotes; other figures are dated inline. The US Treasury curve is the 2 Nov close; the euro AAA curve is the 30 Oct curve, the latest the ECB had published. Brazil was closed for All Souls' Day.

Market Overview

Oil fell sharply as the United States and Iran both signalled that they would rather settle their conflict by negotiation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump had not decided to attack Iran and preferred a diplomatic outcome, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran wanted to resolve the dispute through dialogue, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said an agreement was possible if Washington showed goodwill; Iran's terms include the lifting of sanctions and of the blockade and a smaller US military presence in the region (CNBC). The January Brent contract settled 7.63% lower at $104.77 a barrel and December WTI 7.36% lower at $96.46, from Friday's settlements of $113.43 and $104.12. TD Securities' Ryan McKay told CNBC that much of oil's recent rise was a premium for the risk of escalation after the US midterm elections on Tuesday, which diplomacy headlines can remove, but that with the conflict unresolved and tanker and Houthi attacks continuing, talk alone is unlikely to remove all of it.

Cheaper oil lifted bonds, but US shares gave up an early rise. The S&P 500, up as much as 1.1% early in the session, closed 0.51% lower, its third fall in a row, after falls on 29 and 30 October, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39% as technology and AI shares extended last week's sell-off, while the Dow rose 0.41% (AP, via Yahoo Finance; Yahoo Finance prices). Airline shares rose, with United Airlines up 4.8%, Delta 4.1% and American 3.8%, while Exxon Mobil fell 4.1% and Occidental 5.1% (Yahoo Finance). Treasury yields fell at the long end and rose at the short end: the 10-year settled at 4.91% and the 30-year at 5.28%, both 3 bp lower on the day, while the 2-year rose 3 bp to 4.59% (US Treasury par curve, 2 Nov). Lower fuel costs ease the pressure on inflation that has kept a December Fed rise in prospect. US factories, meanwhile, had a strong October: the ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 from 54.5, above the 54.6 expected, its second-fastest expansion in nearly four years (Trading Economics).

Europe closed higher on the same news. The CAC 40 rose 0.98%, the Euro STOXX 50 0.73%, the DAX 0.63% and the STOXX 600 0.42%; TotalEnergies fell about 2.5% with oil while Safran, Saint-Gobain and ArcelorMittal rose about 4% and Hermès 2.4% (Trading Economics). UK 10-year gilt yields fell about 10 bp to 5.20%, their lowest since 22 September, three days before a Bank of England decision at which a rise is widely expected (Trading Economics). French 10-year yields fell about 7 bp to 4.90% and German ones about 3 bp to 3.29%, narrowing the gap between them to 161 bp from 165 bp on Friday's quotes. In Asia, Korea's Kospi rose 2.24% after record October exports, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 fell 0.33% as Kioxia and Screen Holdings fell on cautious outlooks (Trading Economics).

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 2 Nov close. Day changes are against the 30 Oct close. † Brazil IBOV: 2 Nov 2026 is All Souls' Day, market closed today; level is the 30 Oct close.

The S&P 500 is 2.02% below its 50-day average, 3.17% above its 200-day and 3.86% below its 52-week high of 7,844.52. The Nasdaq 100 is 6.06% below its 50-day average and 10.75% below its 52-week high of 31,361.37, held back by Marvell, down 12.7% after agreeing to buy Lumentum, the maker of optical components for AI data centres, in an all-share deal valuing Lumentum at $115 billion including debt; Lumentum itself fell 18.6% (Lumentum 8-K filing; Stock Titan; Yahoo Finance). Oracle, which is in the S&P 500 but not the Nasdaq 100, closed 8.8% lower after announcing it will sell $10 billion of new shares and $10 billion of bonds. Amazon rose 2.2%. The Dow is 0.44% below its 50-day average.

Europe

European data reflects today's close (2 Nov).

In Paris, luxury and industrial shares led the CAC 40's 0.98% rise: Hermès gained 2.4%, LVMH 2% and Kering 1.6%, Safran about 4%, Saint-Gobain 3.9% and ArcelorMittal about 3.6%, and STMicroelectronics 4%, while BNP Paribas rose 1.7% as lower bond yields eased pressure on banks; TotalEnergies fell about 2.5% and Thales 1.4% (Trading Economics). The CAC 40 is now 0.11% below its 50-day average, almost back to it, but still 1.90% below its 200-day and 8.08% below its 52-week high. The DAX is 1.57% above its 50-day average and 2.40% below its 52-week high of 26,618.74, and the STOXX 600 2.11% below its 52-week high of 663.41. The Swiss SMI was flat, within 0.5% of its record. The FTSE 100 rose 0.29%, less than the CAC 40, DAX and STOXX 600.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects today's close (2 Nov).

Korea's chip and industrial shares recovered part of Friday's 3.48% fall: SK hynix rose 3.81%, Samsung Electronics 1.78%, Hanwha Aerospace 6.32% and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries 5.11%, after October exports rose 93.7% from a year earlier to a record $115.3 billion, with chip exports up 259% to $56.4 billion (Trading Economics). The Kospi is still 10.07% below its 50-day average. In Tokyo, chip-equipment makers Tokyo Electron, Lasertec and Advantest rose, but memory maker Kioxia fell about 15% and Screen Holdings about 19% after cautious outlooks renewed doubts about how fast AI demand is growing, and the Nikkei 225 ended 0.33% lower, 3.99% below its 50-day average (Trading Economics). The Shanghai Composite rose 1.08% and is 1.78% above its 52-week low of 3,574.27; Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.58%. Tokyo is closed tomorrow for Culture Day.

Emerging Markets

MSCI EM (EEM) and South Africa (EZA) are the 2 Nov New York closes; the Nifty is the 2 Nov close.

EEM trades in New York after Asia has closed, so its 0.11% rise is New York's valuation of emerging markets; today it rose much less than the local closes, which were all higher (Korea 2.24%, India 1.68%, Shanghai 1.08%, Hong Kong 0.42%), on a day the S&P 500's technology sector fund fell 2.95%. With the euro up 0.38% against the dollar at the evening quote, the fund was about 0.3% lower for a euro investor. EEM is 7.57% below its 50-day average. South Africa's fund rose 1.86% on a day gold gained 1.81%, and is 4.41% above its 52-week low of 60.27.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026 (n = 123; 119 for the Nikkei proxy); shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM, priced off each market's 2 Nov close.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 23.9x gives an earnings yield of 4.19% (1÷23.88). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 4.91% (US Treasury par curve, 2 Nov) the earnings yield gap is −0.72 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.62% (US Treasury real curve, 2 Nov) the gap is +1.57 pp; the 2.29 pp difference is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 26.1x has an earnings yield of 3.83%, 1.08 pp below the 10-year Treasury. The S&P 500 is 2.02% below its 50-day average and 3.86% below its 52-week high. Today's 0.51% fall came despite gains in the S&P 500 sector funds that benefit from cheaper fuel (consumer discretionary up 2.41%, industrials 1.38%): technology fell 2.95% and energy 3.96%, as Oracle's share sale and Marvell's acquisition added to last week's doubts over the cost of AI investment. The fall in oil eases one source of inflation, but core PCE inflation of 3.1% (as cited in the 29 Oct briefing) still supports the December Fed rise that futures priced at about 85% after the Fed's 28 October meeting (Axios, citing CME FedWatch, as cited in the 28 Oct briefing), and Friday's October jobs report, with 55,000 jobs expected (Stock Titan), is the next test.

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 18.0x gives an earnings yield of 5.57% (1÷17.96); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.37% (ECB YC API, 30 Oct) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.20 pp, and today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.29% (Trading Economics) gives +2.28 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.35% (see Real Yields below) it is +4.22 pp. The S&P 500 trades at a 32.9% P/E premium to the STOXX 600 (23.9x against 18.0x). Part of the difference between the US and euro gaps reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, which is why the real-yield versions are shown alongside.

France remains the region's main risk, though today eased it. The CAC 40 at 16.9x has an earnings yield of 5.90% (1÷16.95), 1.00 pp above the French 10-year yield of 4.90%; the DAX at 18.4x yields 5.44%, 2.15 pp over the Bund, and the FTSE 100 at 16.7x yields 6.00%, 0.80 pp above the 10-year gilt at 5.20%. French 10-year yields fell about 7 bp today, narrowing the spread over Germany to 161 bp, but the National Assembly votes on the revenue part of the 2027 budget tomorrow (as cited in the 27 Oct briefing), after third-quarter output shrank 0.1% (as cited in the 30 Oct briefing). A euro investor in euro-quoted funds has no exchange-rate effect on the quoted value, but the constituents earn much of their profit abroad, so their earnings in euros still move with the currency.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei proxy's P/E is 16.5x (earnings yield 6.06%), 3.29 pp above the 10-year Japanese government bond at 2.77% (Trading Economics). The Bank of Japan held its rate at 1.25% on 30 October and said underlying inflation has reached its 2% target, leaving a December rise open (as cited in the 30 Oct briefing). The yen weakened 0.22% against the dollar to 157.86 and about 0.6% against the euro, so a euro investor in an unhedged Japan fund lost about 0.9% today rather than the index's 0.33%. The Nikkei's moves this week turn on a handful of chip and AI-related companies: today Kioxia and Screen Holdings fell sharply while Tokyo Electron and Advantest rose.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 13.1x, the cheapest index in the table and a 45.1% discount to the S&P 500. Its large weights in Korean and Taiwanese chip makers drive it in both directions: on 30 October it fell 2.68% with the chip sell-off, and today it rose only 0.11%, on a day Korea's record export figures lifted SK hynix and Samsung in Seoul while the S&P 500's technology sector fund fell 2.95% in New York. Cheaper oil helps the large oil importers in the index, India and Korea among them, while a December Fed rise would tend to draw money out of emerging markets and raise the cost of their dollar debts, whatever the investor's home currency. For a euro investor, the currency conversion largely offsets a stronger dollar, because the euro usually falls against the dollar too; the economic effects of a stronger dollar on these companies (dearer dollar debt, money leaving their markets) are not offset.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap, a 10-year yield near 5%, a likely December rate rise, and the largest companies still under doubt over whether AI spending pays. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US; French 10-year yields at 4.90%, 161 bp over Germany, with the budget vote tomorrow. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 16.5x, with a Bank of Japan that now says its inflation target has been reached. - Emerging Markets: Attractive relative valuation, with returns concentrated in Asian chip makers and sensitive to the dollar and to US rates.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

October's payroll and unemployment figures are due on Friday 6 November, with economists expecting 55,000 jobs (Stock Titan).

Other economic releases today (web search)

The ISM index counts how many purchasing managers report improvement, not by how much, so 55.5 means improvement was widespread rather than that output grew 5.5%. October's rise came mainly from production, up to 59.0 from 56.7, and from inventories, up to 51.4 from 48.6; new orders edged up to 55.5 from 55.3, employment eased to 52.4 from 52.7, and supplier delivery times, which raise the index when they lengthen, were almost unchanged at 59.1 against 59.0, so slower deliveries did not drive the rise. The prices index, which sits outside the headline and matters most for bonds, eased to 75.2 from 77.9 but still shows far more firms facing rising costs than falling ones (Trading Economics). In the euro area, the final October manufacturing index was revised up to 52.7 from the 52.4 flash estimate, but output grew at its slowest pace in four months, input prices rose fastest since May and delivery times lengthened the most since June (investingLive); the longer delivery times add to the headline, so its level overstates how fast factories are producing.

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

The Bank of England, which held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September (as cited in the 21 Oct briefing), decides on Thursday 5 November, and a rise is widely expected; Trading Economics reports that policymakers are expected to push back against market bets on several more rises next year. The Fed held its range at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October, the ECB its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October and the Bank of Japan its rate at 1.25% on 30 October.

Government Bond Yields

The USA row is the settled 2 Nov 2026 curve, with its day change against the 30 Oct 2026 curve from the same feed. The other rows are 2 Nov quotes, with day changes as Trading Economics reports them, rounded; French and Italian 2- and 30-year yields were not retrieved.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 2 Nov 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +32 bp, positive, 7 bp outside the ±25 bp flat band and under the 75 bp steep threshold. - 10Y-3M spread: +70 bp, positive, no recession signal.

OAT-Bund Spread: 161 bp (10-year OAT 4.90% against Bund 3.29%, Trading Economics, 2 Nov 2026 intraday), against 165 bp on Friday's quotes.

Bond yields fell almost everywhere as oil dropped, since cheaper energy lowers expected inflation. The UK moved most: the 10-year gilt fell about 10 bp to 5.20%, the 2-year about 8 bp to 4.80% and the 30-year about 8 bp to 5.63%, helped by the fall in oil, by Chancellor John Healey's budget keeping to the government's borrowing rules, and by expectations for Thursday's Bank of England decision (Trading Economics). Italy's 10-year yield fell about 8 bp to 4.41%, 112 bp over Germany, and France's about 7 bp to 4.90%. German yields fell less, about 3 bp at ten years to 3.29%, the lowest since August, and 1 to 2 bp at two, five and thirty years (Trading Economics): the Bund, which investors had bought as a safe asset during worries about France's public finances and the Middle East (as cited in the 30 Oct briefing), gained less from the easing than the bonds of countries with weaker public finances. Japanese yields were little changed, with the 30-year up about 4 bp to 3.88%. In the US the fall was confined to longer maturities: the 10- and 30-year yields fell 3 bp while the 2-year rose 3 bp (US Treasury par curve, 2 Nov).

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 2 Nov 2026: 3M 4.21%, 6M 4.25%, 1Y 4.38%, 2Y 4.59%, 3Y 4.65%, 5Y 4.70%, 7Y 4.79%, 10Y 4.91%, 20Y 5.31%, 30Y 5.28%; 2-to-10 slope +32 bp. Prior curves: 2 Oct and 1 Sep 2026. The 3-month bill at 4.21% is 33.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%.

The US curve rises from 4.21% at three months to 5.31% at 20 years, with the 30-year 3 bp below the 20-year. Against 2 October it is 24 bp lower at two years, 37 bp lower at ten and 35 bp lower at thirty, so the 2-to-10 slope has narrowed from 45 bp to 32 bp.

Euro area AAA government curve, 30 Oct 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.56%, 1Y 2.88%, 2Y 3.01%, 5Y 3.10%, 10Y 3.37%, 20Y 3.65%, 30Y 3.61%; 2-to-10 slope +36 bp. Prior curves: 1 Oct and 1 Sep 2026. Amber markers: Bund quotes, 2 Nov 2026 intraday (Trading Economics).

The euro AAA curve rises from 2.56% at three months to 3.65% at 20 years, with the 30-year 4 bp below the 20-year; against 1 October it is 10 bp lower at two years and 23 bp lower at ten, so its slope has narrowed from 49 bp to 36 bp. Today's Bund quotes differ from the plotted 30 October curve by at most 8 bp, at ten years (3.29% against 3.37%); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area curve and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few bp apart by construction, so only about 3 bp of that gap is today's fall.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 30 Oct 2026 vs 29 Oct 2026. Credit spreads are the 30 October close; today's session is not in them yet.

On 30 October, the day Intel fell 28.58% and the Nasdaq 100 3.46% (as cited in the 30 Oct briefing), the extra yield on lower-rated US company bonds over Treasuries widened 18 bp to 344 bp, still in the lower part of the normal 300–500 bp range; investment-grade spreads widened 5 bp to 94 bp, near the bottom of their 80–150 bp range, and the euro lower-rated spread 11 bp to 359 bp. The VIX closed at 19.42 on 30 October (FRED VIXCLS), a moderate reading.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

Only the US real yield is a market price; the euro figure is derived from a survey and is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply when comparing them: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey looks five years ahead against the bond's ten. The two legs carry different dates: the US leg is 2 November and the euro leg 30 October, the newest euro AAA curve the ECB had published. The 154 bp gap between US and euro nominal 10-year yields splits into 27 bp of expected-inflation difference (2.29% against 2.02%) and 127 bp of real-rate difference (2.62% against 1.35%), figures rounded, so the gap is almost entirely real. The US real yield rose 2 bp on 2 November to 2.62%.

Why the US real-yield advantage is not a return a euro investor can capture

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and the 127 bp on these figures is under that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, the scarcity of German government bonds, heavy US government borrowing), not a return a euro-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward exchange rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a bet on the dollar rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.62% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 2 Nov 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond. Computed from the US Treasury par curve, 2 November.

The 10-year yield's 3 bp fall on the day is worth about 0.23% to a holder at the same duration, a little over half a month of coupon.

The 30-year Treasury pays 0.69 pp more than the 2-year for nearly eight times as much price movement per 10 bp. Today the long end gained as oil fell while the 2-year yield rose 3 bp, but with core PCE inflation at 3.1% and futures expecting a December Fed rise, a reversal in oil would cost long maturities just as quickly, while short maturities keep most of the income with far less exposure.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 18:05–18:15 CET; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

The dollar eased as oil fell: the euro rose 0.38% to $1.1208 and the ICE dollar index slipped 0.23% to 101.65. The Swiss franc was the strongest of the group, up 0.81% against the dollar to 0.8182 francs. The yen went the other way, weakening 0.22% to 157.86 per dollar, and the pound rose 0.23% to $1.3420.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 2 Nov 2026 settlement vs 30 Oct 2026 settlement.

Every row shows the same contract as Friday's table, so the levels are comparable. The January Brent contract (BZF27) settled at $104.77, $8.66 below Friday's settlement of $113.43, and the December WTI contract (CLZ26) at $96.46, $7.66 below its $104.12 settlement. January Brent is 16.92% below the 52-week high of $126.10 set by an earlier contract (range $58.72 to $126.10), and December WTI 19.27% below its $119.48 high (range $54.98 to $119.48). The December WTI contract expires on 20 November, so it is not yet near its roll.

Gold settled 1.81% higher at $3,969.60, 2.33% above Friday's 52-week low of $3,879.30 but still 28.94% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026; its rise came alongside lower long-term Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. Silver settled 3.27% higher at $50.888, 58.05% below its all-time high of $121.30 set the same January day. Copper settled 1.32% higher at $6.5675, slightly below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September, 3.84% below it. Natural gas settled 1.45% lower at $2.856, in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sector funds (Select Sector SPDRs, 2 Nov close): consumer discretionary (XLY) led, up 2.41%, followed by financials (XLF, +1.86%), materials (XLB, +1.76%), consumer staples (XLP, +1.58%) and industrials (XLI, +1.38%). Energy (XLE) was the weakest, down 3.96% with oil, followed by technology (XLK, −2.95%) and health care (XLV, −0.15%); utilities (XLU) rose 0.55% and communication services (XLC) 0.36%. The sectors that fell on Friday rose today, except technology, while energy, Friday's leader, fell the most.

• Oil drops on talk of diplomacy: Brent and WTI fell more than 7% after Rubio said no decision to attack Iran had been taken and Iran's president and foreign minister spoke of a negotiated settlement (CNBC).
• Fuel users gain, producers lose: United (+4.8%), Delta (+4.1%) and American (+3.8%) rose, while Exxon Mobil (−4.1%), Occidental (−5.1%) and TotalEnergies (about −2.5%) fell (Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics).
• AI financing and consolidation: Oracle fell 8.8% on a $20 billion sale of shares and bonds, and Marvell 12.7% on its all-share purchase of Lumentum at a $115 billion valuation including debt (Stock Titan; Lumentum 8-K filing; Yahoo Finance).
• Chips split in Asia: Korea's record exports lifted SK hynix 3.81%, while cautious outlooks sent Kioxia down about 15% and Screen Holdings about 19% in Tokyo (Trading Economics).
• Precious metals recover: gold settled 1.81% higher and silver 3.27% higher after Friday's falls, as long-term Treasury yields and the dollar eased (Yahoo Finance).

Top Stories (Global)

• Oil falls more than 7% as Washington and Tehran talk of diplomacy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump had not decided to attack Iran; Iran's President Pezeshkian said Tehran sought dialogue and Foreign Minister Araghchi that a deal was possible if the US showed goodwill. January Brent settled at $104.77 and December WTI at $96.46 (CNBC; Yahoo Finance).
• US shares give up an early rise. The S&P 500, up as much as 1.1% early in the session, closed 0.51% lower, its third fall in a row, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.39% as technology and AI shares extended last week's sell-off; the Dow rose 0.41% (AP, via Yahoo Finance; Yahoo Finance prices).
• US factory survey beats forecasts. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, against 54.6 expected, led by production; its prices index eased to 75.2 (Trading Economics).
• Marvell agrees to buy Lumentum. The all-share deal values the AI optics maker at $115 billion including debt, at 4.5 Marvell shares per Lumentum share; Marvell closed 12.7% lower and Lumentum 18.6% lower (Lumentum 8-K filing; Stock Titan; Yahoo Finance).
• Korea's exports reach a record. October exports rose 93.7% from a year earlier to $115.3 billion, chips up 259%, and the Kospi rose 2.24% (Trading Economics).
• Gilts lead a fall in European yields. The UK 10-year yield fell about 10 bp to 5.20%, its lowest since 22 September, ahead of Thursday's Bank of England decision; French 10-year yields fell about 7 bp to 4.90% (Trading Economics).
• Oracle raises $20 billion. The company will sell $10 billion of new shares and $10 billion of bonds; its shares closed 8.8% lower (Stock Titan; Yahoo Finance).
• Apple's revenue rises 12%. After the US close, Apple reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% from a year earlier, and earnings of $2.10 a share, up 14%, taking revenue for the fiscal year to a record $479 billion (Apple).
• Palantir's revenue nearly doubles. Also after the close, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $2.31 billion, up 96% from a year earlier; its US commercial revenue, $984 million, exceeded its US government revenue for the first time, and it raised its full-year revenue forecast to about $8.53 billion (Palantir 8-K filing).
• Euro-area factories slow beneath a steady headline. The final October manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.7, but output grew at its slowest in four months and input prices rose fastest since May (investingLive).

Looking Ahead

• Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections; President Trump has said he will not attack Iran before them (CNBC). The French National Assembly votes on the revenue part of the 2027 budget (as cited in the 27 Oct briefing). Japanese markets are closed.
• Wednesday 4 November: the euro-area flash inflation estimate for October (as cited in the 29 Oct briefing).
• Thursday 5 November: the Bank of England's decision, with a rise widely expected (Trading Economics).
• Friday 6 November: the US jobs report for October, with 55,000 jobs expected (Stock Titan).
• Further out: Anthropic could begin marketing its listing as soon as the week of 9 November (Bloomberg, via Yahoo Finance, as cited in the 27 Oct briefing); the second estimate of euro-area third-quarter GDP on 13 November (as cited in the 30 Oct briefing).

Market closures - Brazil 2 Nov 2026 (All Souls' Day), today. - Japan 3 Nov 2026 (Culture Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (2 Nov 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 30 Oct 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q4); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures, US sector funds and individual stock prices at the 2 Nov close, and FX quoted at 18:05–18:15 CET, via Yahoo Finance; European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, CNBC, Stock Titan, investingLive, AP via Yahoo Finance, Apple, and the SEC 8-K filings of Lumentum and Palantir).