Global Financial Briefing — Thursday, 12 November 2026

Americas index levels, commodities and day changes reflect the 12 Nov 2026 close. The US Treasury par and real curves, the curve spreads and the US curve chart are at the 12 Nov 2026 close. The euro AAA curve is the 11 Nov 2026 observation, the latest the ECB had published. FX is the evening quote; credit and macro figures are dated inline.

Market Overview

Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's chief executive and left its board with immediate effect on Thursday, in an announcement at 14:59 CET (Yahoo Finance). The company named its finance chief, Colette Kress, interim chief executive, and Harvey Jones, a former Synopsys chief executive, becomes the board's first chair (CNBC). The resignation follows Huang's admission on Sunday 8 November of an affair with an executive of Megaspeed, a Singapore-based cloud company, whom US officials reportedly suspect of spying for China, and a New York Times report on Wednesday of a relationship with an Nvidia vice-president who reports to him (CNBC). Nvidia shares fell as much as 14% at the open (Yahoo Finance) and closed down 4.3% at $166.19 (ABC News). The wider US market closed lower after a volatile session, but by much less than Nvidia, because money moved to Nvidia's rivals rather than out of shares: AMD rose 5.9% and Broadcom 5.5% (ABC News). The S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the Nasdaq 100 0.30% and the Dow 0.36%, with rising Treasury yields and a higher oil price adding to the pressure (Reuters).

The larger move was in bonds. The US bond market reopened after Wednesday's Veterans Day holiday, and the 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.10%, 12 bp above Tuesday's close and its highest close since 21 October (US Treasury par curve). The rise was largest at medium maturities: the 3-year rose 16 bp to 4.90%, the 5-year 14 bp to 4.95% and the 2-year 13 bp to 4.86%, while the 30-year rose 8 bp to 5.43% and the 3-month bill 2 bp to 4.32%. Rate futures now price a Fed rise at the 8 to 9 December meeting and two more in 2027 (Trading Economics) after comments this week from Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would back a half-point rise in December if inflation keeps accelerating, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who favours at least two further quarter-point rises from the current 3.75% to 4.00% range (Trading Economics). Yields also rose after President Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, which lifted oil (Reuters), and Trading Economics linked part of the rise in medium-term yields to worries that the change at Nvidia could disrupt borrowing by AI companies, which now account for nearly half of long-dated US investment-grade bond sales (CNBC). Weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000 against 195,000 expected, too small a miss to slow the rise in yields. Gold settled 2.88% lower at $3,885.30 and silver 3.72% lower, on a day when yields and the dollar rose (Yahoo Finance).

Europe closed slightly higher and at records. The STOXX 600 rose 0.14% to 664.01, the DAX 0.41% to 26,771.88 and the Swiss SMI 0.63% to 15,149.43, each its highest close on record; the CAC 40 rose 0.34% to 8,361.36, its fourth rise this week and its highest close since late August (Trading Economics). Investors moved from chip shares into health care, consumer and energy companies: Sanofi rose about 2% and TotalEnergies about 1.5% after a sharp rise in third-quarter cash flow, while STMicroelectronics fell about 2.5% (Trading Economics). UK third-quarter GDP grew 0.7%, as expected and the fastest since early 2024, and the 10-year gilt yield rose 7 bp to 5.30%; Bund yields rose 1 to 3 bp. Asia had traded on reports that Nvidia's board was weighing Huang's position, before the resignation: the Nikkei 225 fell 0.70%, with chip-related shares such as Ibiden (−8.3%) and Advantest (about −5%) leading it down, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.26% (Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics). Brent's January contract settled 3.30% higher at $95.82 after President Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran (Yahoo Finance).

Global Indices Snapshot

Americas

Americas data reflects the 12 Nov 2026 close.

The S&P 500 is 1.05% below its 50-day average and 3.52% above its 200-day, and the Nasdaq 100 is 4.28% below its 50-day average, the gap left by the fall in AI-related shares since late October. Both indices fell far less than Nvidia, because AMD rose 5.9% and Broadcom 5.5% (ABC News). Brazil's Ibovespa fell 0.43% and is 8.66% below its 50-day average.

Europe

European data reflects the 12 Nov 2026 close.

The STOXX 600 closed above Wednesday's record close of 663.05, the DAX above Wednesday's 26,662.77, and the SMI rose 0.63% with the Swiss franc down 0.36% against the dollar. The FTSE 100 rose 0.25% with the rest of Europe. All five indices are above their 50- and 200-day averages.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific data reflects the 12 Nov 2026 close.

Asian markets closed before the resignation was announced. Japan's October producer prices rose 7.1% on a year earlier, above the 6.5% expected, which adds to the case for a Bank of Japan rise (Trading Economics). The Nikkei is 6.34% below its 50-day average and Korea's Kospi, down 0.61%, 15.13% below its own. Australia's ASX 200 was almost unchanged (−0.07%).

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market data reflects the 12 Nov 2026 close.

EEM, which trades in New York, closed down 1.45%, more than the local closes in Hong Kong (−1.26%), Shanghai (−0.67%) and Korea (−0.61%), and against a 0.18% rise in India's Nifty 50. The fund's price includes New York's reaction to the resignation, announced after Asian markets had closed, and to the rise in US yields; the South Africa fund (EZA) fell 2.24%.

Index Valuations & Investment Risk

Valuation Table

Averages of the daily trailing P/E readings recorded since 1 May 2026; shown for reference only. Trailing P/E is Yahoo Finance's trailing P/E for the ETF proxies SPY, QQQ, EXSA.DE, CAC.PA, EXS1.DE, ISF.L, 1321.T and EEM, taken 18:06 CET. SPY, QQQ and EEM are priced off the 12 Nov 2026 close; the other proxies were at their close when captured.

Investment Risk Assessment for ETF Investors

United States (S&P 500 / Nasdaq ETFs)

The S&P 500's trailing P/E of 24.1x gives an earnings yield of 4.15% (1÷24.09). Against the settled 10-year Treasury yield of 5.10% (US Treasury par curve, 12 Nov) the earnings yield gap is −0.95 pp: a 10-year government bond pays more income than the index's earnings come to per dollar invested. Against the real 10-year yield of 2.86% (US Treasury real curve, 12 Nov) the gap is +1.29 pp; the 2.24 pp difference is the correction for company earnings growing with inflation while a bond coupon is fixed. Only the part of earnings paid out as dividends and buybacks reaches a holder as cash. The Nasdaq 100 at 28.3x has an earnings yield of 3.53%, 1.57 pp below the 10-year Treasury. The VIX was 17.49 on 11 November (FRED VIXCLS), moderate. Today showed how much US index funds depend on a few AI companies: the news at one of them, Nvidia, valued just under $4 trillion (CNBC), moved its shares by as much as 14% before a 4.3% loss at the close, while AMD and Broadcom rose 5.9% and 5.5% on the same news (ABC News). The second risk is rates: futures price a Fed rise in December and more in 2027, and the 10-year yield settled at 5.10%, above 5% for the first time since 28 October.

Europe (STOXX 600 / CAC 40 / DAX ETFs)

The STOXX 600 at 18.0x gives an earnings yield of 5.55% (1÷18.03); against the euro AAA 10-year yield of 3.34% (ECB YC API, 11 Nov) the euro earnings yield gap is +2.21 pp, and against today's 10-year Bund quote of 3.35% (Trading Economics) it is +2.20 pp. Against the euro-area real 10-year yield of 1.32% (AAA nominal less long-term HICP expectations, ECB SPF 2026 Q4) it is +4.23 pp. The US trades at a 33.6% premium to the STOXX 600 on trailing earnings. Part of the gap between the US and euro figures reflects different inflation and policy paths rather than different compensation for risk, although on the latest figures only 22 bp of the 176 bp difference in 10-year yields is expected inflation and 154 bp is real yield. In France the CAC 40 at 16.7x yields 5.97% in earnings, 1.14 pp above the 10-year OAT at 4.84%, because French government debt pays 149 bp more than German debt. The DAX at 18.4x gives 5.45%, 2.10 pp above the Bund. The STOXX 600, the DAX and the SMI closed at record levels, which leaves less room for disappointment, and markets put the odds of an ECB quarter-point rise in December at about 80% on Thursday (Trading Economics), from the 2.50% deposit rate set on 10 September. Europe has fewer large AI companies than the US, which is why it held up today. For a euro investor in euro-quoted funds the quoted value carries no exchange-rate effect, but the earnings do: many STOXX 600 companies earn in dollars, and a euro 0.25% weaker today makes those earnings worth slightly more in euros.

Japan (Nikkei / TOPIX ETFs)

The Nikkei fund (1321.T) trades at 17.5x trailing earnings, an earnings yield of 5.70% (1÷17.53), 2.91 pp above the 10-year JGB at 2.79%. Today's 0.70% fall leaves the index 6.34% below its 50-day average and 1.99% below its 200-day; chip-related shares such as Advantest and Ibiden fell most on the Nvidia reports. October producer prices up 7.1% on a year earlier support a further Bank of Japan rise from the 1.25% it set in September. The yen was little changed at 159.66 per dollar; for a euro investor an unhedged Nikkei fund carries the yen exposure in full, while a hedged share class removes it but pays the difference between euro and yen short-term rates.

Emerging Markets (MSCI EM ETFs)

EEM trades at 14.4x trailing earnings, an earnings yield of 6.97% (1÷14.35) and a 40.4% discount to the S&P 500. The fund is 6.07% below its 50-day average. Taiwan and Korea, whose chip makers supply Nvidia, are large weights in the index, so a change of leadership at Nvidia matters to emerging-market funds as well as US ones. Higher US yields and a firmer dollar raise the cost of dollar debt for emerging economies and the pressure on their central banks to keep rates high, effects that weigh on local share prices whatever the investor's home currency; the currency conversion itself largely cancels for a euro holder, since the euro also fell against the dollar today.

Overall Risk Score: - United States: High valuation risk / low margin of safety. A negative nominal earnings yield gap of −0.95 pp, an index whose largest company has just lost its founder as chief executive, and a 10-year yield back above 5% with further Fed rises priced. - Europe: Moderate. Positive earnings yield gaps on both measures and a P/E well below the US, but three indices at record closes and an ECB likely to raise rates in December. - Japan: Moderate. A P/E of 17.5x and a positive gap of 2.91 pp, against a Bank of Japan expected to keep raising rates and a heavy weight in chip suppliers. - Emerging markets: Moderate. The cheapest of the four on trailing earnings, with higher US yields, a firm dollar and exposure to Nvidia's suppliers the main pressures.

US Economic Indicators (FRED - authoritative)

The CPI rows are September's, the latest FRED holds. October's report, published on Tuesday, gave monthly changes only (headline +0.4%, core +0.3%), because October 2025 prices were not collected during last year's government shutdown (CNBC, as reported in the 10 November briefing). The real-yield row is Thursday's close, compared with Tuesday's, since no curve was struck on Wednesday's holiday.

Other economic releases today (web search)

UK growth matched forecasts: GDP rose 0.7% in the third quarter, led by services (+0.9%), while construction fell 0.7%, and the second quarter was revised up to 0.5%. Gilt yields rose from their lowest in more than two months as markets added to bets on another Bank of England rise by the end of the year, after the 5 November rise to 4.00% (Trading Economics). US jobless claims of 200,000 were slightly above forecasts but remain low, and continuing claims fell by 20,000 to about 1.7 million (Yahoo Finance).

Fixed Income & Bond Analysis

Policy Rates

Markets expect the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England to raise rates by early next year: the Fed in December, from the 3.75% to 4.00% range, the ECB in December (about 80% odds on Thursday) and the Bank of England by year-end and once more by March (Trading Economics). In Japan, October's 7.1% rise in producer prices adds to the case for a Bank of Japan rise from 1.25%.

Government Bond Yields

The USA day change is against the 10 Nov 2026 curve from the same feed.

Yield Curve Spreads (US Treasury par curve, 12 Nov 2026): - 10Y-2Y spread: +24 bp, flat (within the ±25 bp flat band), −1 bp on the day. - 10Y-3M spread: +78 bp, positive, no recession signal, +10 bp on the day.

OAT-Bund Spread: 149 bp (10-year OAT 4.84% against Bund 3.35%, Trading Economics, 12 Nov 2026 intraday).

The US rows are Thursday's settled close, and the day changes are against Tuesday's, since no curve was struck on Wednesday's Veterans Day holiday. The 2-year stands at 4.86% and the 10-year at 5.10%, a gap of 24 bp, inside the flat band. The rise was concentrated between two and seven years (13 to 16 bp), while the 3-month bill rose only 2 bp to 4.32%, so the 10-year to 3-month spread widened 10 bp to 78 bp.

European yields followed at a smaller scale. The 10-year Bund rose 2 bp to 3.35%, the 2-year 1 bp to 3.14% and the 30-year 3 bp to 3.70%. The 10-year OAT rose 4 bp to 4.84%, widening the OAT-Bund spread to 149 bp, and Italy's 10-year rose 4 bp to 4.39%, 105 bp above the Bund. UK gilts rose most in Europe after the GDP figures: the 2-year 6 bp to 4.98%, the 10-year 7 bp to 5.30% and the 30-year 8 bp to 5.72% (Trading Economics). Japan's 10-year yield was unchanged at 2.79%.

Yield Curve Charts

US Treasury par curve, 12 Nov 2026: 3M 4.32%, 6M 4.42%, 1Y 4.65%, 2Y 4.86%, 3Y 4.90%, 5Y 4.95%, 7Y 5.02%, 10Y 5.10%, 20Y 5.48%, 30Y 5.43%; 2-to-10 slope +24 bp. Day change against the 10 Nov 2026 curve: 3M +2 bp, 6M +4 bp, 1Y +9 bp, 2Y +13 bp, 3Y +16 bp, 5Y +14 bp, 7Y +13 bp, 10Y +12 bp, 20Y +9 bp, 30Y +8 bp. The 3-month bill at 4.32% is 44.5 bp above the Fed Funds midpoint of 3.875%.

The 12 November curve rises from 4.32% at three months to 5.48% at 20 years, with the 30-year slightly lower at 5.43%. Since the 13 October curve the 10-year has fallen 11 bp and the 30-year 13 bp while the 2-year rose 7 bp and the 3-month bill 6 bp, so the curve is flatter than a month ago; against the 11 September curve the 3-month bill is 25 bp higher and the 2-year 23 bp, the effect of two months in which expected Fed rises were added at the short end.

Euro area AAA government curve, 11 Nov 2026 (ECB YC API): 3M 2.62%, 1Y 2.94%, 2Y 3.05%, 5Y 3.10%, 10Y 3.34%, 20Y 3.63%, 30Y 3.60%; 2-to-10 slope +29 bp. Today's Bund quotes (Trading Economics, 12 Nov 2026), overlaid, differ from the plotted 11 Nov 2026 curve by at most 10 bp, at the 30Y (3.70% against 3.60%); the curve is the ECB's fitted AAA euro-area composite and the quotes are on-the-run Bunds, which sit a few basis points apart by construction, so only a gap well beyond that is a day move.

The 11 November euro AAA curve runs from 2.62% at three months to 3.63% at 20 years. Since the 12 October curve the 10-year and 30-year have each fallen about 16 bp and the 2-year 2 bp while the 3-month rate rose 7 bp, so the euro curve has flattened over the month, as markets priced a December ECB rise.

Credit Markets (from FRED - authoritative)

Change is 11 Nov 2026 vs 9 Nov 2026. Credit spreads are the 11 November close; today's session is not in them yet.

US high yield at 330 bp and investment grade at 90 bp are both in their normal ranges (300 to 500 bp and 80 to 150 bp); euro high yield is 321 bp. These are the 11 November observations, from Wednesday's rally; they do not show today's news at Nvidia, whose effect on the bonds of AI companies is a question Trading Economics raised today.

Real Yields (US and Euro Area)

The US real yield of 2.86% is a market price, quoted on inflation-protected Treasuries, and the 2.24% expected inflation is derived from it; the euro figure works the other way, subtracting a survey's 2.02% expected inflation from the AAA yield, so the euro real yield of 1.32% is the softer of the two. Two mismatches apply: the US breakeven includes a premium investors demand for inflation risk, which a survey does not, and the survey's five-year horizon is shorter than the bond's ten years. With the US leg dated 12 November and the euro leg 11 November, the 176 bp gap between US and euro 10-year yields is 22 bp of expected inflation and 154 bp of real yield. The US real yield rose 8 bp from 2.78% on 10 November, and the breakeven rose 4 bp.

The US–euro real rate gap is not an investment opportunity

The US real yield has exceeded the euro one in every quarter since 2014, by 1.52 pp on average, and today's 154 bp is above that mean. It is a structural feature (US trend growth, euro-area savings, Bund scarcity, US fiscal supply), not a trade a EUR-based reader can capture: hedging the currency removes it, because the forward rate is set from the same interest differential, and holding Treasuries unhedged is a dollar bet rather than a bond decision. A real yield is real in its own currency; a US real yield of 2.86% is that much above US inflation, which is not a real return for someone who spends euros. The gap is stated here as a description of relative policy stance and growth expectations, and no portfolio conclusion is drawn from it.

Bond Portfolio Implications

A 10 bp rise in yields is an ordinary day's move. At the 12 Nov 2026 par yields it costs:

Months of coupon lost is the loss divided by one month of coupon (yield ÷ 12) on a par bond.

Today's 12 bp rise at the 10-year cost a holder about 0.9%, or 2.2 months of coupon.

The settled 10-year Treasury at 5.10% pays 0.95 pp more than the S&P 500's earnings yield of 4.15%, and the 2-year at 4.86% pays 0.71 pp more; a bond buyer can lock in that income today, while an equity holder accepts the index's earnings yield, of which only the dividend and buyback part arrives as cash. On a real basis the comparison reverses (earnings yield 1.29 pp above the 2.86% real yield), because company earnings rise with inflation and a coupon does not. With futures pricing a December Fed rise and more in 2027, short maturities keep most of the income with far less exposure to a further rise: the 30-year pays 57 bp more than the 2-year for nearly eight times its loss on a 10 bp rise. In Germany the 10-year Bund at 3.35% pays only 21 bp more than the 2-year at 3.14%.

Currencies & Commodities

Currencies (Yahoo Finance live quotes)

FX quotes as of 18:06 CET; day change vs the previous 17:00 ET close.

The dollar rose against the euro (−0.25% to $1.1062), the pound (−0.27% to $1.3239, despite the GDP figures) and the Swiss franc (+0.36% to 0.8348 francs), and the ICE dollar index rose 0.23% to 103.15. The yen was steady at 159.66 per dollar.

Commodities (Yahoo Finance front-month futures)

Day changes are settlement-to-settlement: 12 Nov 2026 settlement vs 11 Nov 2026 settlement. Prices are the 12 November settlements of the contracts named.

Brent's January contract (BZF27), the same contract as in Wednesday's table, settled at $95.82, up 3.30% on Wednesday's settlement of $92.76, within a 52-week range of $58.72 to $126.10. President Trump wrote that the US does not need a deal with Iran, while the Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President Vance is considering direct talks with an Iranian official (Yahoo Finance). WTI's December contract (CLZ26), which expires on 20 November, settled 2.55% higher at $88.74, within a 52-week range of $54.98 to $119.48. Gold's December contract settled 2.88% lower at $3,885.30, 30.4% below its all-time high of $5,586.20 set on 29 January 2026, and $28.60 above its 52-week low of $3,856.70, set during the session (the low cited on Wednesday was $3,879.30). Silver settled 3.72% lower at $50.065, 58.7% below its all-time high of $121.30 from the same day. Copper fell 1.49% to $6.1960 per pound, 9.3% below its all-time high of $6.83 set on 22 September. Natural gas rose 3.89% to $3.340, in the lower part of its 52-week range of $2.483 to $7.827.

Crypto: Bitcoin fell below $72,000, down about 8% so far in November, and Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, fell as much as 6% after MSCI said it would remove the company from its indices (Yahoo Finance).

Sector & Theme Highlights

US sectors (Select Sector SPDR funds, 12 November close): energy (XLE) rose 1.51% with oil, the only one of the eleven sector funds to gain; utilities (XLU) were almost unchanged (−0.02%). Materials (XLB) fell most, 1.28%, followed by communication services (XLC) at 0.96% and industrials (XLI) at 0.89%. Technology (XLK) fell 0.34%, in line with the S&P 500.

Nvidia without Huang: Bernstein cut its price target on the shares to $200 from $400, and its analyst Stacy Rasgon said a relationship with a direct report made it much harder for the board to keep him; another analyst called the lack of a succession plan a reason to avoid the shares (CNBC). The shares had already fallen more than 20% in the month before today (CNBC). AMD was upgraded on the view that it will gain from what the broker called Nvidia's leadership vacuum (CNBC), and the news has revived calls in Washington for tighter limits on chip sales to China ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC summit (CNBC).

AI companies' borrowing: AI borrowers now account for nearly half of long-dated US investment-grade bond issuance (CNBC). Nebius, which rents out AI computing capacity, fell sharply after reporting delays in building some data-centre capacity, and CoreWeave gave back part of Wednesday's 25% gain (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance).

AI demand in the after-hours results: Cisco's revenue for its fiscal first quarter rose 24% on a year earlier to $18.5 billion, and it raised its full-year revenue forecast to $74.8 billion to $75.8 billion, from $72.2 billion to $73.4 billion, and its target for AI infrastructure revenue from large cloud companies to $9 billion, from $7.5 billion (Cisco). Applied Materials, which makes chip-making equipment, reported record quarterly revenue of $10.41 billion, up 53% on a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $4.16 a share against about $4.06 expected (Applied Materials; Investing.com).

Europe's rotation: European investors sold chip makers (STMicroelectronics down about 2.5%) and bought health care (Sanofi up about 2%), luxury goods (Hermès up 1.2%, Kering 1.1%) and energy; aerospace and defence shares fell (Airbus about −1.2%, Thales about −1.3%) on hopes of progress in Middle East talks (Trading Economics). Munich Re's results fell short of forecasts (Trading Economics).

Top Stories (Global)

• Jensen Huang resigns from Nvidia. The chief executive left with immediate effect after admitting an affair with a Megaspeed executive whom US officials reportedly suspect of spying for China; finance chief Colette Kress is interim chief executive and Harvey Jones the board's first chair (CNBC; Yahoo Finance).
• Nvidia shares fall, rivals rise. Nvidia fell as much as 14% at the open and closed down 4.3%; AMD rose 5.9% and Broadcom 5.5%, and Bernstein cut its Nvidia price target to $200 from $400. The S&P 500 closed 0.35% lower (Yahoo Finance; ABC News; CNBC; Reuters).
• 10-year Treasury back above 5%. As the bond market reopened after Veterans Day, the 10-year yield settled at 5.10%, 12 bp above Tuesday's close and its highest close since 21 October, with futures pricing a December Fed rise and more in 2027 (US Treasury; Trading Economics).
• UK growth at 0.7%. Third-quarter GDP matched forecasts and was the fastest since early 2024; gilt yields rose about 7 bp as markets expect another Bank of England rise by year-end (Trading Economics).
• Record closes in Europe. The STOXX 600, the DAX and the SMI closed at record levels as investors moved from chip shares into health care, luxury and energy; Sanofi rose about 2% and TotalEnergies about 1.5% (Yahoo Finance; Trading Economics).
• Gold and silver fall. Gold settled 2.88% lower at $3,885.30 and silver 3.72% lower as yields and the dollar rose (Yahoo Finance).
• Trump on Iran. The President said the US does not need a deal with Iran, while Vice President Vance is reported to be considering direct talks; Brent's January contract settled 3.30% higher at $95.82 (Yahoo Finance).
• Cisco and Applied Materials beat forecasts. After the US close Cisco raised its full-year revenue forecast on 24% quarterly growth, and Applied Materials reported record quarterly revenue of $10.41 billion (Cisco; Applied Materials).

Looking Ahead

• Friday 13 November: US producer prices for October and the second estimate of euro-area third-quarter GDP (Trading Economics calendar, as given in the 11 November briefing).
• Tuesday 17 November: UK labour market figures, US retail sales for October and Germany's ZEW survey (Trading Economics calendar, as given in the 11 November briefing).
• 18 to 19 November: Anthropic's shares are expected to be priced on 18 November and begin trading on 19 November (Yahoo Finance); the APEC leaders' meeting, where Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to meet (CNBC, as given in the 11 November briefing).
• Further out: the Fed decides on 8 to 9 December; Christine Lagarde leaves the ECB on 7 February 2027.

Market closures - None in the next five days (13 Nov to 17 Nov 2026). - Further out: Brazil 20 Nov 2026 (Black Awareness Day); Japan 23 Nov 2026 (Labour Thanksgiving Day); United States 26 Nov 2026 (Thanksgiving Day). - No Indian holiday data is available here, so Indian closures are not checked.

Data sources: US Treasury par and real curves (12 Nov 2026) and FRED (policy rates, VIX, credit spreads, macro); ECB YC API (AAA curve, 11 Nov 2026) and ECB SPF (2026 Q4); equity indices, ETF P/E proxies, commodity futures, live yields and FX via Yahoo Finance (taken 18:06 CET, with the Americas indices, EEM, EZA and the commodity settlements at the 12 Nov 2026 close); European, UK and Japanese bond yields, economic releases and news via web search (Trading Economics, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, NPR).