Global Financial Briefing — Friday, April 24, 2026
Retrospective briefing — data as of 2026-04-24. Valuation table omitted (trailing P/E not available for past dates).
Good Friday — European and Asian equity markets were closed. All European and Asian index entries below reflect Thursday 23 April closing levels (prior close).
Market Overview
US equity markets rallied sharply on Friday as Intel's blockbuster first-quarter earnings report reignited confidence in the artificial intelligence trade. The S&P 500 gained 0.80% to close at 7,165.08 — within a fraction of a percent of its all-time high — while the Nasdaq 100 surged 1.95% to 27,303.67, also at the edge of record territory. The VIX fell to 18.71 (FRED VIXCLS, 2026-04-24), retreating from Thursday's 19.31 and signalling that the volatility spike tied to the Iran conflict is gradually unwinding.
Intel's Q1 print (reported after Thursday's close) was the catalyst: revenue of $13.6 billion beat expectations handily, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 crushed the $0.01 consensus. Data Center & AI revenue grew 22% year-over-year. Intel stock surged 24% to $82.57, dragging the broader semiconductor complex higher — AMD gained 13%, Qualcomm 10%, and Nvidia crossed the $5 trillion market-capitalisation threshold again, adding 5% on the day and closing at or near an all-time high.
The Dow Jones underperformed, falling 0.16%, as the blue-chip index's heavier weight in telecoms and industrials offset tech strength; Comcast and Charter Communications each fell approximately 8% after Deutsche Bank downgraded both to Hold.
On the macro front, the University of Michigan's final April consumer sentiment reading came in at 49.8 — revised slightly upward from the preliminary 47.6 but still the lowest level ever recorded (records back to 1952). Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.7% (from 3.8% in March), the largest single-month increase since April 2025. Consumers cite the ongoing Iran energy shock as the primary driver of pessimism, even as a short ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz briefly supported sentiment at the margin.
European and Asian markets closed Thursday lower on broad profit-taking and Iran-related uncertainty, with no Friday session to respond to the Intel news.
Global Equity Indices
| Index | Close | Day Chg | Day % | 52wk High | 52wk Low | MA50 | MA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,165.08 | +56.68 | +0.80% | 7,168.59 | 5,371.96 | 6,789 | 6,706 |
| Nasdaq 100 | 27,303.67 | +521.04 | +1.95% | 27,314.21 | 18,744.47 | 24,922 | 24,712 |
| Dow Jones | 49,230.71 | −79.61 | −0.16% | 50,512.79 | 39,371.87 | 47,884 | 47,085 |
| Brazil IBOV | 190,745 | −633 | −0.33% | 199,355 | 131,550 | 187,298 | 159,786 |
| MSCI EM (EEM) | 63.74 | +1.39 | +2.23% | 65.96 | 42.08 | 59.63 | 54.73 |
| Euro STOXX 600 | 610.65 | −3.55 | −0.58% | 636.16 | 518.41 | 607.53 | 580.70 |
| Euro STOXX 50 | 5,883.48 | −11.25 | −0.19% | 6,199.78 | 5,105.80 | 5,849 | 5,670 |
| CAC 40 | 8,157.82 | −69.50 | −0.84% | 8,642.23 | 7,505.27 | 8,141 | 8,038 |
| DAX | 24,128.98 | −26.47 | −0.11% | 25,507.79 | 21,863.81 | 23,927 | 24,114 |
| FTSE 100 | 10,379.10 | −77.90 | −0.74% | 10,934.90 | 8,397.10 | 10,431 | 9,789 |
| SMI (Swiss) | 13,169.70 | −78.36 | −0.59% | 14,063.53 | 11,612.00 | 13,193 | 12,714 |
| Nikkei 225 | 59,716.18 | +575.95 | +0.97% | 60,013.98 | 35,337.98 | 55,772 | 49,340 |
| Hang Seng | 25,978.07 | +62.87 | +0.24% | 28,056.10 | 21,817.85 | 25,927 | 25,878 |
| Shanghai Comp. | 4,079.90 | −13.35 | −0.33% | 4,197.23 | 3,277.55 | 4,042 | 3,897 |
| ASX 200 | 8,786.50 | −6.90 | −0.08% | 9,202.90 | 7,968.20 | 8,817 | 8,801 |
| KOSPI | 6,475.63 | −0.18 | ~0.00% | 6,557.76 | 2,534.94 | 5,729 | 4,302 |
| India Nifty 50 | 23,897.95 | −275.10 | −1.14% | 26,373.20 | 22,182.55 | 24,284 | 25,129 |
| South Africa J203 | (not retrieved) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Italicised entries = prior close (Thursday 23 Apr); market closed Good Friday.
Investment Risk Assessment
| Indicator | Level | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.71 | Moderate — easing from 19.31 Thursday |
| 10Y2Y Spread | +53 bps | Positive — curve steepening |
| 10Y3M Spread | +62 bps | Positive — recession signal absent |
| US IG OAS | 80 bps | Tight — benign credit conditions |
| US HY OAS | 286 bps | Below historical average — risk-on |
| Euro HY OAS | 286 bps | In line with US HY — global risk appetite intact |
| 10Y TIPS Real Yield | 1.89% | Elevated — real rates remain restrictive |
| UMich Sentiment | 49.8 | Record low — consumer caution extreme |
| Inflation Expectations (1Y) | 4.7% | Elevated — energy shock feeding through |
The combination of near-ATH equity levels, tight credit spreads, and a declining VIX presents a bullish short-term picture. However, the record-low consumer sentiment and surging 1-year inflation expectations (4.7%) flag a divergence between financial markets and Main Street. The Intel-driven AI rally is a genuine growth signal, but its sustainability depends on whether the energy/inflation shock moderates.
US Economic Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (All Items, YoY) | 3.29% | Mar 2026 | Above the 2% target |
| Core CPI (ex-Food & Energy, YoY) | 2.60% | Mar 2026 | Elevated; sticky services inflation |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | Mar 2026 | Slightly above NAIRU estimates |
| Nonfarm Payrolls (MoM chg) | +185K | Mar 2026 | Solid; prior month +147K |
| Fed Funds Target Range | 3.50–3.75% | Apr 2026 | On hold; DFF effective 3.64% |
| 10Y TIPS Real Yield | 1.89% | Apr 24 2026 | Restricive |
| UMich Consumer Sentiment | 49.8 | Apr 2026 | All-time record low; prelim was 47.6 |
| UMich 1Y Inflation Expectation | 4.7% | Apr 2026 | Largest 1-month jump since Apr 2025 |
| UMich 5–10Y Inflation Expectation | 3.5% | Apr 2026 | Highest since Oct 2025 |
Fixed Income
US Treasury Yield Curve
| Maturity | Yield | vs. Prior Month (Mar 24) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Month | 3.69% | — |
| 6-Month | 3.71% | — |
| 1-Year | 3.67% | — |
| 2-Year | 3.78% | −12 bps |
| 3-Year | 3.80% | — |
| 5-Year | 3.92% | −11 bps |
| 7-Year | 4.10% | — |
| 10-Year | 4.31% | −8 bps |
| 20-Year | 4.88% | — |
| 30-Year | 4.91% | −3 bps |
The curve shifted lower across all tenors versus one month ago, with the front end falling the most (2Y −12 bps, 5Y −11 bps). The 10Y2Y spread widened to +53 bps from +49 bps a month earlier — a modest bull steepener, suggesting markets are pricing slightly more front-end easing while longer-dated term premia remain anchored by the oil shock.
Key spreads (FRED, 2026-04-24): - 10Y–2Y: +53 bps (positively sloped; no inversion) - 10Y–3M: +62 bps (no recession signal) - TIPS 10Y real yield: 1.89% (restrictive real rates; below Thursday's 1.92%)
Policy rates: - Fed Funds: 3.50–3.75% (effective: 3.64%) - ECB Deposit Facility: 2.00% - BOE (SONIA proxy): 3.7305% - BOJ: 0.75% (unchanged; April 28 decision pending at this snapshot)
Sources: FRED DGS series, 2026-04-24. Prior curve: FRED as of 2026-03-24.
Euro Area AAA Yield Curve (ECB)
| Maturity | Yield |
|---|---|
| 3-Month | 2.17% |
| 1-Year | 2.47% |
| 2-Year | 2.54% |
| 5-Year | 2.67% |
| 10-Year | 3.07% |
| 20-Year | 3.48% |
| 30-Year | 3.49% |
The ECB model curve is virtually unchanged from Thursday, consistent with European bond markets being closed for Good Friday. The ECB Deposit Facility Rate remains at 2.00%, and the 2Y–10Y euro area spread of +53 bps mirrors the US curve's slope at the comparable tenors.
Source: ECB Yield Curve API (data-api.ecb.europa.eu), 2026-04-24. European bond markets closed Good Friday.
Currencies & Commodities
FX
| Pair | Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1718 | USD weakening slightly; EUR resilient |
| USD/JPY | 159.35 | Yen range-bound ahead of BOJ April 28 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3518 | Cable firm; UK market closed Good Friday |
| USD/CHF | 0.7848 | CHF stable |
| Broad USD Index | 118.73 | DXY-equivalent; near-flat vs prior week |
Sources: FRED DEXUSEU, DEXJPUS, DEXUSUK, DEXSZUS, DTWEXBGS (2026-04-24).
The USD gave back a fraction of its week's gains, with EUR/USD inching up to 1.1718 from 1.1704 on Thursday. JPY held at ~159 ahead of the April 28 BOJ meeting, where the central bank was universally expected to hold at 0.75% — confirmed after the fact in a 6-to-3 vote. The yen's relative stability reflects markets pricing in a 'hold with hawkish dissents' outcome.
Commodities
| Commodity | Price | Day % | vs. ATH | 52wk Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude (CL=F) | $94.40/bbl | −1.51% | 21% below ATH of $119.48 | $54.98–$119.48 |
| Brent Crude (BZ=F) | $105.33/bbl | +0.25% | 11.8% below ATH of $119.40 | $58.41–$119.40 |
| Gold (GC=F) | $4,722.30/oz | +0.37% | 15.5% below ATH of $5,586.20 | $3,125–$5,586 |
| Silver (SI=F) | $76.38/oz | +1.22% | 37.0% below ATH of $121.30 | $31.68–$121.30 |
| Copper (HG=F) | $6.024/lb | −0.86% | 7.5% below ATH of $6.51 | $4.32–$6.51 |
| Natural Gas (NG=F) | $2.523/MMBtu | −3.48% | 67.8% below ATH of $7.83 | $2.49–$7.83 |
Sources: yfinance MCP, front-month futures (2026-04-24).
Oil: WTI pulled back 1.5% to $94.40 after Thursday's sharp Iran-driven gains, while Brent held flat at $105.33. The divergence reflects profit-taking in WTI after the previous session's move; Brent remains elevated near $105 as the Strait of Hormuz situation stays unresolved. WTI is 21% below its all-time high of $119.48, while Brent sits 11.8% below its ATH of $119.40.
Gold: At $4,722.30, gold extended Thursday's pullback modestly (+0.37% on the day), remaining 15.5% below its all-time high of $5,586.20. The metal continues to track real rates: the TIPS 10Y real yield of 1.89% is a headwind, though geopolitical safe-haven demand provides a floor.
Silver: At $76.38, silver is 37.0% below its all-time high of $121.30. Silver gained 1.22% on the day, likely boosted by the semiconductor rally's implicit industrial-metal read-through, but remains well off record levels.
Natural Gas: Fell 3.48% to $2.523/MMBtu, 67.8% below its all-time high — structural oversupply continues to weigh on domestic US gas despite oil strength.
Sector Highlights
AI & Semiconductors — Intel earnings reignite the trade
Intel's Q1 2026 results, released after Thursday's close, provided the market's biggest catalyst in weeks. Revenue of $13.6 billion (+7% YoY) beat consensus, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 shattered the $0.01 estimate. Data Center & AI segment revenue grew 22% — validating that enterprise AI infrastructure spending remains robust despite consumer-level uncertainty.
- INTC: +24%, closed $82.57 (volume 264M shares, 147% above average)
- AMD: +13% — direct beneficiary of AI compute buildout
- QCOM: +10% — on-device AI inference narrative strengthened
- NVDA: +5%, crossing the $5 trillion market capitalisation level again, on pace for an all-time closing high
The Intel beat is significant because Intel had long been the laggard in the AI chip story. Its recovery signals broadening participation in AI infrastructure beyond Nvidia alone.
Nuclear Energy — X-Energy IPO
Advanced nuclear reactor developer X-Energy went public on Friday, pricing at $23/share before opening at $30.11 — a 31% opening-day premium. The offering raised more than $1 billion, making it the largest nuclear IPO on record. The listing reflects growing institutional appetite for clean baseload energy against a backdrop of AI data-centre power demand and the Iran conflict's focus on energy security.
Telecoms — Comcast/Charter downgrade
Comcast and Charter Communications both fell approximately 8% after Deutsche Bank downgraded each to Hold from Buy. The downgrade cited continued subscriber pressure and margin headwinds from broadband competition. The selloff put meaningful drag on the Dow Jones.
Top Stories
- Intel Q1 2026 beats estimates on AI data centre surge — INTC +24%: Revenue $13.6B vs est.; EPS $0.29 vs $0.01. Data Center & AI +22% YoY. Chipmaker rally broad: AMD +13%, Qualcomm +10%, Nvidia +5% crossing $5T market cap. (Source: web search)
- UMich Consumer Sentiment final April reading: 49.8 — all-time record low: Revised up from 47.6 prelim but still lowest reading since data began in 1952. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.7% (from 3.8%), largest monthly jump since April 2025. Long-run expectations hit 3.5%, highest since October 2025. (Source: web search)
- X-Energy IPO prices at $23, opens at $30.11 — largest nuclear IPO on record: Advanced reactor company raises $1B+. Reflects data-centre power-demand and energy-security themes. (Source: web search)
- Comcast and Charter each fall ~8% on Deutsche Bank downgrade to Hold: Broadband subscriber pressure and margin headwinds cited. (Source: web search)
- Good Friday: European and Asian markets closed — US has the tape to itself: No European or Asian session; US thin-volume rally may overstate conviction. (Source: market structure)
Looking Ahead
- BOJ meeting (April 28): The Bank of Japan was universally expected to hold at 0.75%. Three board members (Takata, Tamura, Nakagawa) were dissenting in favour of a 25-bp hike; the decision passed 6-3. Governor Ueda was expected to raise inflation forecasts citing the oil shock.
- Easter Monday (April 27): Most European and several Asian markets remained closed on Easter Monday. The US markets were open.
- Iran/Strait of Hormuz: The ceasefire remained tenuous; Brent's floor at ~$105 reflected ongoing geopolitical risk premium. Any escalation would push energy-sensitive inflation expectations higher and constrain Fed flexibility.
- Q1 2026 earnings season continues: Following Intel's strong print, focus shifts to other mega-cap tech reporters.
- Fed policy watch: With the effective Fed Funds rate at 3.64% and CPI at 3.29%, real policy rates remain modestly restrictive. The surge in consumer inflation expectations to 4.7% reduces near-term scope for cuts.